Consequences of the arrogance and greed of the authorities

Local pro-European political parties and organizations, as well as democratically determined citizens, have finally and unequivocally received a wind at their backs from the side of the world from which it was expected for a long time. Somehow, things came together and it seems that the decade-long paradoxical situation has finally been overcome, the perception that democratic countries have betrayed their natural partners in Serbia, and supported those who thoroughly mock all the values ​​on which the EU rests, is largely based in reality.

That paradox called stabilocracy, it is argued, has expired and things cannot be turned back. Never again will any serious European politician perceive Vučić as a democrat and reformer, but exclusively as a pariah. Maybe even if the upcoming elections for the European Parliament and in the USA - go in his favor. The fact that the European right-wing and extreme right-wing parties voted against the EP Resolution clearly shows what kind of election results the progressives would like. Again, the fact that the members of the European People's Party overwhelmingly voted for the Resolution shows that the SNS has lost the support of the political association that has been its loyal partner for many years and of which it is a member. And that is a hard blow.

DRIVEN INTO A CORNER

It is also certain that Vučić's government overplayed its game and practically backed itself into a corner. The first serious election manipulations were recorded as early as 2014, among other things, with voter lists, and no one was held accountable for it; on the contrary, he received applause. So the experience was gained that the ladder can be continuously raised. It is called the curse of arrogance and greed.

The regime will certainly not be able to ignore the resolution and what will follow after it. It seems that her famous "diplomatic matchmaking" will not be of much use to her. And it consisted in the fact that the progressive regime was ready to deliver (almost) everything, not only to Western countries, except what threatens the autocratic-criminal order. Some recent moves by the government, such as the recognition of Kosovo license plates and the reactivation of the Rio Tinto ecocide project, indicate that it is more than ready to offer some "new deals" in order to reduce or remove the post-election pressure, but the question is whether there is anyone to accept them. not to pay a high price on his own ground. These moves show that, regardless of the messages the regime sends to the West, Serbia can turn into a kind of Balkan Belarus without any problems, standing on shaky legs. Vučić needs a good relationship with the European Union and the USA, and not only for economic reasons. A political somersault, which would mean the definitive end of European integration and turning to China and Russia, would only hasten its end, according to our interlocutors. But they add that they do not exclude him. And then - to put it mildly - we got mad. But it would be worth enduring.

The regime's fierce rhetoric against the Resolution, the opposition and some MEPs is primarily in the service of internal needs, some say. But the possibility that it is a prelude to greater repression and Lukashenka's dictatorship should also not be completely ruled out. Well, there are two paths ahead of Vučić - either accepting an international investigation that will lead to a weakening of his position, or the abolition of those last vestiges of democracy in Serbia and a certain economic collapse. There is no third.

HOW THE RESOLUTION CAME TO BE MADE?

But let's take a step back and try to answer the question of how an extremely critical document was adopted in the European Parliament. It certainly didn't fall from the sky. The passage of time alone, which showed everyone without an armored blindfold the true face of Vučić's regime, even his "European friends", would probably not be enough. It is very important that, to begin with, the opposition, the pro-European one, united in Serbia and showed that the Serbian regime has a relevant alternative. The relative success of the opposition in the elections is not to be thrown away either. Until now, European officials have been, as they say, forced to talk exclusively with the authorities because it seemed to them that the opposition was too fragmented, powerless and politically disoriented. The fact that the regime systematically destroyed the opposition for years did not interest them too much.

Of course, we should not minimize the importance of the work of a large number of civil society organizations, which, each from their own point of view, shed light on the ugly face of the regime, and we, too, from the relatively few independent media. But, about that another time.

Also, it is unusually important that many parties from the ideologically motley coalition "Serbia against violence" intensified their contacts with related European political associations, of which they are members or will soon become members. European political associations such as the Party of European Socialism (PES), the European Greens (Greens/EFA) and the European Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) are responsible for the change in the perception of the Vučić regime, and it was visible from the plane.

We are discussing the scope of the Resolution with opposition activists who had communication with these political "conglomerates".

THINGS CAN'T BE TAKEN BACKWARDS

The Democratic Party is an associate member of PES. Nebojša Novaković from this party was, in the previous convocation of the National Assembly of Serbia, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee. He is one of those who maintains regular communication with European social democrats. In an interview with "Vreme", he points out that after this text of the Resolution there is no longer a chance to turn things back, but that it remains to be seen "how much room for change can be opened". He says that one should not be unrealistic and say that the entire solution to the deep political and social crisis here is found in this document, but that it certainly established a new perspective of the EU towards the Serbian authorities.

"And that perspective says: we have a problem that can no longer be wrapped in the general places of the bureaucratic dictionary. The government's rhetoric towards the Resolution is expected and it probably won't change: resorting to lies and manipulation in order to hide the theft, discrediting the decision-makers in order to use their "unjust hatred towards Serbia" as the motive for the vote, and emphasizing the role of the opposition as a "fifth-column element" '. There is a reason that the regime treats the Resolution in this way because it is waiting for the outcome of the European and American elections. They hope that the election results will go in their favor. "Whenever the world became a worse place to live, it was good news for them: that's what they hope for now," says Novaković.

Former diplomat Borko Stefanović from the Freedom and Justice Party, who is currently an observer in PES, points out that the Resolution contains extremely critical attitudes towards the authorities in Serbia, but that this is to be expected. He says - no one wants or can ignore the numerous and well-documented evidence about the destruction of the citizens' electoral will and the destruction of democracy. He expects that, regardless of the "visible nervousness and panic of the authorities", the act will result in the arrival of one or two European missions in Serbia, composed of experts, who will contribute to changing the electoral conditions, above all when it comes to the voter list, media representation of political actors and reducing pressure on voters. According to him, this is the best scenario, but he does not rule out a completely different one.

"The worst scenario would be if the government dares to ignore the EU, because that would lead Serbia directly into a political, institutional and every other crisis. That would be what this government has been dreaming of since the radical days: that the country be isolated, trapped by corruption and robbery, and run by an organized criminal group," says Stefanović.

He says that this development of events would be bad for the state, it would lead to its additional devastation and increase in repression, but it would also be bad for the progressive government because it would essentially "accelerate its political end and facing responsibility". "In addition, their rejection of European missions, despite the fact that we are a candidate country for the EU, part of the Council of Europe, the OSCE and the UN, would only confirm that all of us who claim that the elections were stolen are right. If they were 'clean as a tear', as Vučić claims, and if there is not a single problem, then why should the missions and the investigation bother him?" he says.

ALL ELECTIONS SHOULD BE ANNULLED!

In addition to the Green-Left Front, the "Together" party maintains intensive contacts with the European Green Party. Biljana Stojković, co-president of this party, says that the Resolution is the first obvious victory of the opposition in the international arena. As he says, it is at the same time a great defeat for the SNS, which tried in every way to stop the EU's reaction. One member of the European Greens said, she says, that some representatives of the SNS in diplomatic positions even went so far as to "threaten to stop further talks with the members of the European parliament".

"All in all, Vučić's regime lost the battle. The nervousness among the progressives clearly shows that they are very aware of how much the adoption of the Resolution means their defeat in international circles and that it is over with a favorable view of Vučić's anti-democratic system of government. At this moment, Vučić is on a slippery slope that was largely unknown to him until now. I believe that he still does not know how to face the new reality. "For the internal public, the importance of the Resolution will continue to be denied, and at the same time SNS diplomacy will look for ways to influence the European Commission, which is the next step in the hierarchy of reactions, so that the international investigation of the elections in Serbia is not carried out," she says.

She believes that this diplomacy will not yield great results, but that one should be careful. "I do not believe that the reaction of the European Commission will be absent, but there is a possibility that it will be moderated in relation to the European Parliament, which is not the outcome we want. It is certain that the EC will also register irregularities in the elections, seek the implementation of ODIHR's recommendations for the next elections and put Serbia under greater supervision in that sense, which is an aggravating circumstance for Vučić, but it is still important to us and the citizens that the SNS bears real consequences and for the December elections. The national parliament, as well as the provincial, Belgrade and other local parliaments throughout Serbia, have no legitimacy due to the unprecedented scale of theft, which is why it is important that all elections be annulled," she says.

REMINDER: NORTH MACEDONIA

The Movement of Free Citizens is part of ALDE. A member of the Presidency of the PSG and its international secretary, Natan Albahari, tells "Vreme" that "regime hysteria, attacks on the opposition and MEPs, and diverting attention from the Resolution to the Kosovo problem" - are an indication that the government did not expect this outcome, especially not that it would this document to be adopted with such a significant majority. The fact that the European People's Party has clearly distanced itself from its SNS member is a particularly strong blow. Including MPs from Germany's CDU, a party that has long been a reliable partner for progressives.

photo: phonet

"No matter how hard it tries, the government will not be able to ignore the Resolution. The attitude of the West towards the SNS has changed permanently. When it comes to Serbia, Europe will emphasize the state of democracy more and more often. However, the question is how much time will pass until such a policy begins to produce concrete results, and how much time and strength the EU members will have to deal with Serbia in these international circumstances. Our task is to constantly communicate the topics of electoral theft and the abolition of democracy in our country with international partners and institutions, that is, not to allow some other topics, such as the elections for the European Parliament, or the elections in the USA, or the issue of Kosovo - to push them into the second plan", says Albahari.

He says that effective mechanisms of EU pressure on Serbia definitely exist, in the form of a mix of political, economic and financial measures aimed not at the citizens, but at the authorities. The EU has shown that it can be very effective in similar situations and reminds us of the case of North Macedonia.

"The EU mediated and contributed to overcoming the huge political crisis in this country. In 2015, it was in similar problems as Serbia is today. So the capability is there, the tools are there, they just need to be activated. The process took a year and a half, but it produced results. A technical government was formed, the opposition took over the ministries that are key to conducting regular elections, and the entire society gained confidence that the elections would be fair and free. That's what they were. It doesn't matter how the process will technically look in our country, but I believe that European missions can contribute to solving key election problems, such as the one with the voter list. It was successful in North Macedonia, so it can be successful here as well", he says.

VUCIC, AND BESIDES EVERYTHING, WILL NOT CHANGE COURSE

Novaković also believes that Europe has mechanisms to influence the state of democracy in Serbia, as he is convinced that the authorities in Serbia will not change their official course of European integration, regardless of the regime's heart for "everything that is totalitarian, national and backward".

photo: phonet

"They will certainly make sure that it is not a reachable prospect, but they know that on the other side they are waiting for the complete exposure of the mantra of the anti-Western narrative, which in reality has nothing to offer, except that it is useful for scaring Brussels. So, this is not about the fact that the government loves Russia and not Europe, but that it cannot get out of an unwanted marriage. It's about the fact that she loves herself and that they don't need a third party to steal their own people, even if it was Putin himself. In complex circumstances, the EU must find a mechanism so as not to harm the citizens, and to actively oppose the tendencies of the Serbian authorities to abolish democracy in Serbia and give way to a political-criminal alliance. It is one thing to respect the electoral will of the citizens, no matter what their choice was, but it is something else when that electoral will is also manipulated and stolen. That is why it is important that the EU defines and operationalizes mechanisms to protect the rights of citizens threatened by their own authorities as soon as possible", says Novaković.

Stefanović shares a similar opinion, saying that it would be disastrous for Serbia if it found itself in Turkey's position, because it would be condemned to isolation and oppression. Serbia could be left without funds that go to government structures, but ignoring the Resolution and what comes from it would also cost Serbia a reduction in foreign investment, which, he says, depends on the country's future. He points out, however, that the opposition tried not to find any measure in the document or to derive from it any measures that would harm the citizens, but that they are directed exclusively towards the autocratic regime. And she succeeded in that, she claims.

"I think that Vučić's supermarket-approach, that is, the doctrine of 'take as much as you like' just to preserve power and power - no longer works. He is no longer a 'factor of stability', a 'reformist' and 'democrat', a 'lover of Max Weber and the Protestant ethic', but a man who, for the sake of his own power, privileges and corrupt affairs, is ready to destroy the entire country by trampling on the basic principles of the EU. . He is ready for anything to stay in power and to cover up that he was caught with his fingers in a jam, but that will not work for him", says Stefanović.

COLLECTION OF FLICTING WITH CHINA AND RUSSIA

Biljana Stojković says that the first step of the European Parliament will be the formation of an expert commission, the so-called. fact finding commission, which will come to Serbia very soon and collect all the evidence of the theft. This body would precede the international commission, whose establishment depends on the European Commission and which would formulate political frameworks for action. Pressure on Serbia is foreseen by the Resolution in the form of a warning that the pre-accession funds will be canceled if the regime refuses to receive this expert delegation. This threat, he says, is serious and is a turning point for Serbia's European path, but also for funds from the EU, on which the regime of Aleksandar Vučić "relies a lot".

"Further steps of the European parliamentarians, which they assured us, are talks with national governments and parliaments, so that other European countries would act similarly to Germany and take clear positions regarding election theft. This will certainly increase the pressure on Vučić's government in the coming period. Of course, all concessions in connection with Kosovo (tables, dinar and who knows what else), as well as in connection with Rio Tinto, represent Vučić's attempts to cover up election theft and preserve power, regardless of the interests of citizens and the state of Serbia. However, it does not succeed to the extent that he would like, because the problem with the elections and the explicit image of his autocracy has gone too far, even for foreign diplomats who are sympathetic to him. This time, his flirting with Russia and China has also paid off, while at the same time basing almost the entire economy on cooperation with the EU and using their funds. He himself is aware that any economic sustainability is impossible if he turns his back on Europe", says Stojković. She adds that it is the duty of the opposition to intensify cooperation with the EU and people close to it in all the bodies of the European structure, as well as with politicians in every European state.

"The resolution gave us a big wind at our backs and is the first explicit document that describes the European perception of Vučić's government. It is no longer possible to turn a blind eye to such annihilation of civilizational values ​​on our continent. All this was possible solely because of the unity of the opposition, which is why it is clear to foreign partners that we are no longer a weak political force. Of course, the survival of unity is important, which puts the opposition in the position of having to be guided by the general interest, and not by the appetites of individual parties or individuals," she adds.

THE POLITICAL STRUGGLE CONTINUES!

Albahari says that the main job of the opposition on the international level is to continue intensive communication with decision-makers in key European institutions and countries. He says that it is a "political struggle" that implies that the lies spread by SNS must no longer be allowed to become the truth. What happened before.

As he says, thanks to the strengthening of the opposition and its constant contacts with partners in Brussels, Strasbourg, Berlin and Paris, the perception of Serbia has changed and the truth won over lies. He particularly emphasizes the importance of cooperation between opposition parties and related European parties.

"If the opposition was not united and if it did not have cooperation with partners within European political groups, there would be no Resolution. I am convinced of that. We should not forget that the opposition, despite the disastrous election conditions, managed to win the largest number of votes in the last ten years.

I am also convinced that only a united, explicitly pro-European opposition can count on the support of the EU in the battle for a democratic Serbia. And without our partners from the EU, we will not be able to fight for a democratic Serbia", says Albahari.