Eight cubic meters of firewood were neatly stacked in the yard of the eleven-member Vasiljević family in Rakovica at the end of August. A microphone was placed right next to them, after which the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić soon appeared. The Vasiljevics, he explains, received wood from the state as part of the aid program for the 1000 most vulnerable families in Serbia. All this as part of a new package of economic measures to improve the living standards of citizens, which Vučić announced at the end of August.
Soon, the visit of the President of Serbia to the Vasiljević family dawned on his Instagram profile, accompanied by wide smiles, snacks and posing with the children.
"Pensions and salaries will go up, and I believe that all of this will improve the lives and standards of our people. We continue to show attention, responsibility and care for our people," wrote Vučić.
The social networks of the President of Serbia - after all, as well as his statements of the previous ten months - are increasingly reminiscent of a portal to an alternative reality. In that land of Nedođija, thousands of happy people are walking across Serbia in the fight against blockades and protests, otherwise the only problems the country is struggling with. None of them were brought to these gatherings by the party, but, strangely enough, almost everyone who appears in front of the cameras wholeheartedly supports the Serbian Progressive Party and foams with anger when they see the microphone of television N1.
photo: marija janković...
In this dimension, the protests and blockades have largely failed - why are the citizens who are against the blockades protesting, Prime Minister Đuro Macut wishes the children a happy return to school, and citizens, thanks to miraculous measures, can no longer be stolen by any cunning merchant. In that country, perhaps the best medical student, Miloš Pavlović, will finally pass pathology and return to regular appearances on television with a national frequency.
photo: marko dragoslavić / fonetFALSE BALANCE: Protest on September 1 in Belgrade...
In reality, September 1 and the start of the school year are marked by protests across the country. The collective of elementary school "Pavle Savić" in Mirijevo, the largest school in Serbia, announces a strike, and the Faculty of Sports and Physical Education in Novi Sad is guarded by the police, so students enter its premises through the windows on the first floor. Finance Minister Siniša Mali boasts on Instagram that he saved as much as 745 dinars due to the government's economic measures, and the regime student Miloš Pavlović was replaced by some other students as soon as he gave in with his grades. During that time, the President of Serbia spends his time writing a 268-word letter to the Guardian, which the British newspaper then publishes in the "Reader's Letters" column, under the market report.
A LIFE AND DEATH FIGHT
There, under carrots and hot peppers, Aleksandar Vučić wrote something important - new elections await Serbia before 2027.
He did not specify when exactly the citizens of Serbia will return to the polling stations. However, the first among us began to go around the houses and talk about salaries and pensions; he also seriously worried about the wallets of the average person, so after 13 years of absolute power he remembered that he had to stand in the way of "merchants who cheat the state". He tolerates independent media less and less, which is why he is trying to weaken or take over the United group through an accelerated procedure, so the scandal is breaking even outside the borders of Serbia. The latter is not surprising because Aleksandar Vučić understands the importance of the media, and knows even better that freedom of information could seriously threaten the outcome of elections where the winner is not known in advance.
Are we already in an unofficial election campaign? When could the election take place? In what way will the regime try to save itself from going down in history?
"The elections will certainly take place before 2027, but it was problematic to call them earlier because the Serbian Progressive Party does not have a good rating," political scientist and research associate at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory Dejan Bursać told "Vreme". "However, the country is clearly ungovernable. It is clear that the rebellion of a large part of society will not be resolved by the passage of time, nor by repression. Perhaps it could have been resolved by fulfilling the student demands, but we saw that no one in the SNS had an ear for it. The only possibility to resolve this - either by the fall of this regime or its survival - is the elections. But those elections must be somewhat free and democratic. If we see in them everything that we have seen in the previous several election cycles, with all manipulations and 'problems' in the implementation of the electoral process, the agony for SNS will continue."
He adds that the regime is now, at the moment when it begins to lose power, beginning to show its authoritarian character: "We see panic and the desire to retain power at any cost. That price is no longer morality or the law, the expense is not complained of, nor the reputation. This absolutely includes the attitude towards the media. The Serbian Progressive Party sees this as a life and death struggle. For them, staying in power is the reason for their existence and they will fight by all means, no matter how illegal or immoral it may be, to ensure their stay in power".
According to him, there could be elections at the end of this year or at the beginning of next year, but "he cannot say that with certainty".
"I think everything depends on the personal calculation of Aleksandar Vučić and his assessment of whether he can achieve success in those elections."
photo: milica vucković / fonet...and Vučić's "miraculous" measures
SNS READY FOR ELECTIONS
The executive director of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CESID) Bojan Klačar tells "Vreme" that he is sure that the decision to call elections has not yet been made within the SNS, but that the progressives are ready for that move at any moment.
"Calling early elections is a big asset in the hands of every ruling party everywhere in the world. If we are talking about the interests of the ruling party, it is more realistic that the elections be held at the end of next year or at the beginning of 2027, so that in a possibly more relaxed atmosphere, with the Expo over and with some good news in hand, the campaign can be started," Klačar points out. However, he states that it is not excluded that the elections will be called earlier.
"There are several moves that have always been a sign of the upcoming elections in Serbia, and which the SNS has been doing lately. It is a whole series of pre-election activities. From the rally in Požega, through the rallies against the blockades that were held in the past few weekends, the increase in the minimum wage, the announced increase in pensions, the adoption of economic measures. It seems to me that the ruling party does not want to close the door to the elections at any moment. That is why it is making moves that can enable them to call elections whenever they want. assessments", adds the executive director of CESID.
He explains that the Serbian Progressive Party is in a continuous campaign: "The SNS understands that the elections are close even if they are in a year, a year and a half. With such events on the ground, all we are looking at is the election campaign."
In his judgment, the progressives still prefer that the elections be held at a different time, but "they do not want to close the door to the possible calling of elections at the end of this year or the beginning of next year. In theory, if that happens, they will automatically have several topics ready for the campaign."
ON THE EVE OF THE PREVIOUS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
What did the preparation of the field for the elections look like in the past? The last time Vučić announced extraordinary parliamentary elections on November 1, 2023. They were announced for December 17 of the same year, so the election campaign officially lasted about a month and a half. Unofficially, it was much longer.
Two days before the election, Vučić announced the famous student cards as a significant benefit for students. Vučić's student card came with 1000 dinars on it, and many students eventually took it because they were conditioned - since that year, the payment of state student scholarships and loans is made exclusively through the account that comes with the student card. Shortly before the student year, the pensioner card was announced, and five days before the election, Vučić talked about economic measures: one-time aid for social assistance beneficiaries until the end of the year, pension increases, double-digit salary increases for employees in the public sector. In addition, he promised a one-time 20.000 dinars for pensioners.
Vučić did not dwell only on economic measures. Just as at the end of August this year he visited the Vasiljević family and took pictures with their children, at the end of October 2023 he received the Janković family from Kosovo in the Presidency building and said that he would be the godfather at the baptism of their three-month-old baby.
The campaign before the campaign of that year was also marked by the re-opening of the Belgrade Center Railway Station in Prokop on October 20. Five years later, the station is not only not finished, but due to serious static problems it has to be reconstructed.
The extraordinary elections of 2023 were held after a major political crisis. In May of that year, Serbia was shaken by two mass murders, which caused a wave of mass civil protests "Serbia against violence". However, by autumn, the protests had dissipated and only then did the authorities assess that the terrain was safe enough to go to the polls. This time, the traditionally politically dead summer was spent in mass demonstrations and escalation of police repression. If autumn is known by September 1, there are undoubtedly hot months ahead of us. After all, the anniversary of the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad is approaching, the event that started the historic student and civil rebellion and marked the beginning of the cracking of the progressive wall.
Therefore, this time, at least in the next few months, the government cannot count on protest fatigue. Instead, he is trying to respond - by organizing "spontaneous" counter-protests, he is looking for a way to shake up his own already exhausted electorate.
CONSOLIDATION OF YOUR ELECTORS...
It is a sad picture that is coming these days from the streets where the gatherings of citizens against the blockades are being held. There are retirees who want to learn, interlocutors who change roles from city to city, and party officials who are there exclusively as citizens - at least that's what it says in the "message box" of the progressive that was leaked to the public. It is quite clear that these are gatherings organized by SNS in an attempt to appease its own electorate and show that it still has the capacity to gather the people around an idea.
However, the counter-protests proved to be another own goal for a party that boasts more than 700.000 members. The number of people present at these gatherings is miserable, even when the gathered supporters of the government are counted by the Minister of the Interior Ivica Dačić or the police director Dragan Vasiljević. The citizens who gather at the protests against the blockades of the detachments have the same message: they want to learn, they want peace, they want their Serbia back and for everything to be as it was before November 1. It is interesting that posters with similar messages are already appearing - at the end of August, just one day before the start of the school year, they appeared at schools in North Mitrovica, in the colors of the Serbian tricolor. On some of them it is written: "We will not give Serbia", "I want a normal life", "I want peace"...
"I don't see much of a systemic strategy here, but it is also clear to SNS that it has to do two things in order to create preconditions for the elections," explains Bursać. "One is to re-mobilize and keep their electorate homogeneous, and that's why we're also looking at these economic measures that are aimed at older and poorer citizens, but, in general, the entire electorate is worried about the rise in prices in the past few years. That's why we're also looking at these ritual gatherings of the SNS - it's a message to our own base that the party is still organized and that everything is fine."
...AND SABOTING THE OPPONENT
Another part of the tactic, explains the interlocutor of "Vremena", is discouraging the part of voters who would vote for the student list when the election comes.
"There is also a part of people who are voters of the civic opposition, and there is also a significant part who voted for right-wing parties. There is also a significant number of abstainers, and there is also a modest percentage of people who previously voted for the parties of the ruling coalition and were disappointed in them. The easiest policy for SNS is to discourage abstainers and to quarrel with civic and nationally oriented voters. These are things that have already been tried: to talk about the issues of Kosovo, Srebrenica and the like". states Bursać.
He explains that the regime is already trying to discourage more moderate voters by emphasizing civil war, violence and unrest.
"On the other hand, we also have surveys published by SNS, which are only there to discourage voters who have hope for political change. It is the second time in a month that an Ipsos survey has been 'leaked', which, I would say, has unrealistic figures - it does not measure the student list under strange methodological explanations, and SNS is at a very high percentage that, it seems to me, is inflated. And it always leaks to some media intended for a more moderate audience."
When, sooner or later, the election comes, the campaign of the Serbian Progressive Party will be very similar to the campaigns we have seen before, but with a few key differences.
"It is very easy to play the game when the opponent's legs are tied. The SNS still has huge advantages. An unlimited budget - both abuse of state resources and private sources of funding. Media mechanisms that are very unbalanced on the side of the government and the state apparatus that includes the means of force, which works for one party in the electoral process. However, for the first time they will have an equal, and according to some research, a stronger opponent. I believe that this will create great nervousness in the SNS and I am afraid that we will not have a normal election again process. All those flaws of the electoral process, many of which can be attributed to the conscious manipulation of the ruling party - from problems with the voter list, electoral corruption, misuse of state resources to problems on the voting day itself - will be 'turned to the troika' in the upcoming elections", concludes Bursać.
