The biggest progressive hoax

Often that radio Yerevan joke is paraphrased. Soviet propaganda, known for its futuristic outbursts, announces that in the near future the government will allow every citizen to own their own helicopter. One of the listeners asks the radio presenter - well, but what the hell is a helicopter going to do when we can't even get the most basic food? This one says - you practically gave the answer yourself: if, for example, you live in Tula, and you hear that oil has arrived in Nizhny Novgorod (then it was called Gorky), you start your helicopter and there you are in no time in line for oil.

It is typical for an autocratic government to separate its followers from the "irrelevant" reality/present by constantly teleporting them into the past and future. With the help of the reconstruction of the past, mythomaniac consciousness is created and maintained, which always comes in handy for justifying and legitimizing the government. The futuristic approach has an even simpler mechanism: it is that you are not very well now, but wait a little, happier times are coming when you will live like emperors, and you will not have to do practically anything. As it were, the president will personally deliver money to your address every few days, including the keys to your helicopter and other flying vehicles.

Autocratic propaganda also rests on megalomania. Let's go back to the USSR again: it's true that you don't have oil, but that's why we're conquering the expanses of space and have modern weapons that can destroy humanity 200 times. It is not only the communist heritage, for megalomania we can jump to Nazi Germany and recall, for example, the organization of the Olympic Games in Berlin in 1936, which were used to consolidate power, promote power and ideology and, of course, monumental party theft. But we won't talk about that.

EXPO THE PEAK OF PROGRESSIVE FUTURISM

Since coming to power, even while it was in the opposition, the radical-progressive party promised citizens a bright future. "Belgrade on the water" was the most famous example until the Expo 2027 project. Admittedly, it is not that this project has not already been realized to some extent. And now, the fact that he did nothing good for Belgrade or the citizens and that he dramatically damaged the state budget, architecturally destroyed the city by turning it into a backdrop for the Grand Parade, and that the builders say that a stronger earthquake could destroy the entire city. be disastrous - is a completely different matter. Other futuristic promises were not without a certain effect either. It was being built, not that it wasn't. It was late, not that it wasn't. Admittedly, the state became hyper-indebted, everything was paid much more than the real price. Many citizens have no benefit from the "towers and cities", only harm, but some have become rich, that's right. An elite of progressive rich people was created, whose basic unit of measurement is a million euros. They don't get out of bed below that.

photo: promo

Expo 2027, which has been presented as a cure-all for all our ills, looks set to be the climax of a progressive propaganda-criminal crescendo. The public does not actually know a single key thing about the project, i.e. what exactly this manifestation entails, but according to the information we are dealing with now - we can only scream in fear. Especially considering we know who we're dealing with. It is true that this world manifestation, which has existed for almost two centuries, has brought benefits to many cities and countries, but that means nothing in the case of Belgrade. It is not at all impossible that Serbia after her will be a land of ghosts and debts. And that those who do not get up without millions, and their children and grandchildren, should be on some other meridians.

Let's start, of course, from the price of the project, when we already mentioned megalomania. Initially, the government told us that it would cost 12, and then suddenly there was a forecast increased by as much as 50 percent - 18 billion euros! An additional problem pointed out by one of our interlocutors, Goran Radosavljević, a professor at the FEFA faculty, is that the price of the projects implemented here only increases over time. From the planned few hundred million, we reach a billion in no time. He says that it is therefore easy to assume that the cost of the Expo by the time of its realization, and then during construction, "will break through 18 billion euros, only the sky is the limit". For the sake of comparison, this year's Olympics in Paris will cost around eight billion euros in total.

THEY SAW THE HORSE SHOEING...

The Expo exhibitions are divided into "big" and "small" or - global and specialized. On them, states and corporations present their economic, technological, cultural and construction achievements, contacts are established, deals are made, contracts are signed, and new projects are contracted. The legacy of this manifestation, among others, is the Eiffel Tower in Paris, the Atomium in Brussels, and even the invention of television. The experts we talked to point out that after the event, the host, in addition to new business arrangements, is left with valuable objects that are later converted into museums, art galleries, science institutes, technology parks, university spaces or objects that become tourist attractions in their own right. However, they point out that even a cursory look at the cities where the exhibitions are organized shows that these are usually countries that have excess money, but also what they have to present to humanity. Serbia has neither excess money nor anything to advertise, especially not when it comes to the economy.

Expo in Belgrade, although it could not be said by the price, belongs to the "small" specialized manifestations. Considering that we are with the economy and technology of "Talašika", the Belgrade Expo will be called "Game(s) for humanity - sport and music for all". With the "event", Vučić not only wants to elevate Serbia, but also to save the planet and the surrounding galaxies. The official "poster" roughly says that this event will prepare the human body, mind and logic to navigate the new world of technology full of uncertainty. And what else are you going to fight against the challenges of civilization if not with sports and music? Jus-jus-juskay, as a poet would say.

We have already said that the Expo brought many good things to many countries. There were also controversial examples, such as Kazakhstan (Astana). The city and tourist complexes built for the exhibition are largely unused today, some say they look like a turbo-modern desert. The huge hotel capacities are completely out of proportion to the needs. Therefore, not only is the invested money not returned, but additional maintenance is required. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan organized a fair specialized in the field of energy, in which this country is an important player, so it all made at least some sense. In addition, the state wanted to expand the capacities of the relatively new capital, so whether it overplayed its hand or not is another matter, there was still some plan. In the end, Kazakhstan is a rich country, it has huge sources of energy, so it was not a problem for it to spend some money. And one more thing, not the least important - this Expo cost incomparably less than the Belgrade Expo: "only" two billion euros (it is estimated that around five were spent anyway).

photo: marko čoković / tanjug

Serbia saw that the big and rich countries were shoving each other, so it also raised its foot. Not just one, but all four. The structure of the money that will be invested in the Expo is not yet known, but it is quite certain that a huge percentage will come from new debts, i.e. loans. Even though we are already indebted to God and the people, we will take out new loans at high interest rates because - experts say - things are like that in the world economy today and it will be like that for at least five more years. No more cheap money. In short, we are wasting other people's expensive money that someone else will return (next generations). Comfortable position! And realistically, we don't really have anything to show when it comes to sports and culture. Djokovic will be in a well-deserved retirement by then, and the question is whether Kusturica will have time to deal with the Expo: maybe then he will be eagerly called to install the parquet.

WHAT A FEASIBILITY STUDY?

The economists we spoke with say that, rather than the frightening cost of the event, an even bigger problem is that there is evidently no serious plan, that is, a precise and systematically done study of the project's feasibility. And that study should, to put it simply, contain the following: a precise and professional record of what will be built and worked on, an accompanying cost estimate, as well as an elaborate plan for how the money will be returned in the short and long term. So, this will cost so much and so much, here we can save, here not, but the state will benefit from all this in the short term from this, and in the long term from that. And that doesn't exist, and it won't exist, and especially that document won't be transparent, as our people would say.

The exhibition implies some short-term profits (engaged construction operatives, a large number of visitors, full hotel capacities, restaurants, agreements made and contracts signed...), but it is very important whether the money will be invested in something that will bring money to the state in the long term, the means by which she will be able to pay back huge loans. If the money is spent on something that will have to be maintained additionally, after the event, with citizens' money, then it means that the price of the Expo will only increase in the long run. Let's say, who guarantees that the big stadium in Surčin will bring profit? This cannot even be said for the announced new fair complex, no matter how important fair tourism is in many cities of the world. Vučić claims that 120-130 hotels will be built for the Expo. It already does not look like a sustainable business, it is more reminiscent of some future dilapidated buildings whose rooms will be turned into studios, if anyone wants them too.

photo: tara radovanović / tanjug

In the past, Surčin was known for its airport and criminal clan, and perhaps in the future it will be known for its philharmonic and opera. No one can guarantee us that Serbia will not invest (other people's) money in the promotion of culture. Maybe the progressive kids have already finished some kind of music academies in the world, so they want to return home, but they can't find a suitable job. Such institutions would definitely have a problem with profitability. All in all, the fact that there is no serious, elaborate study in this regard, but that all this is and will be another progressive blunder, is also said by this rumbling of billions.

Radosavljević says that the question arises whether Serbia even has enough construction operatives to spend such a large amount of money in the next three years. "We don't know what will be built, we can only discuss on the basis of semi-information and assumptions. As things stand, this all looks like a giant steam washing machine to me. That is why we are talking about such large numbers. At around 20 billion euros, a billion up or down becomes a trifle," he says.

Other economists remind us of the following: Expo for the government in Serbia is of great importance because this kind of manifestation is ideal for inflating the GDP through borrowing. When borrowing, the ratio of current debt to GDP is observed. And if that debt is 60% of GDP or less, it is possible to get a more favorable credit arrangement. New debt is used to finance projects that once again show an increase in GDP. This again opens up space for new borrowing and thus closes the circle. Until everything breaks. Of course, it is important - they say - to secure financing from those lenders who will not insist on the transparency of the process and the dedicated use of money.

PUBLIC PROCUREMENT, BYE!

However, something is known. It is legal. In order to spend huge billions of euros, the state will not have to bother with public procurement. Everything can be agreed on the basis of godfather, party and other ties. A billion up and down, who's going to waste time on that nonsense now. Everything revolves around the family anyway. If he's lucky, some serious global company would be hired for the feasibility study as well in a public tender. This is what Vučić and Siniša Mali have to do during their snack break.

In its annual report, the international organization Transparency International stated that Serbia is facing the decline of democracy and strongly criticized the legal solutions that exclude transparency and the public procurement system from the Expo 2027 project. No wonder, it is a paradise for corruption.

photo: marko djoković / tanjug

Many experts have already said in public that they have no doubt: they believe that through this project, large sums of money will flow into private pockets through corrupt practices. Not only the companies that will be engaged in the implementation of the project, with which secret contracts and agreements will be concluded, but also the Serbian Progressive Party itself and certainly individuals from the top of the government will make a huge profit. The party will be guaranteed to continue to engage in various forms of political and electoral "engineering" for years to come, among other things, the transportation of citizens in the country and from abroad for the purposes of elections and political gatherings. There is no doubt that money will be found for the media, which will follow the project with great fanfare. They will be on their home turf: they will spread a sense of pride among citizens due to the presented successes of our athletes and musicians. There will be those who will profit more or less regularly from the Expo, some companies (experts say, primarily foreign, because the biggest exporters in Serbia are precisely foreigners, the Chinese and others), hoteliers and other restaurateurs, tour operators... Of course, creditors will also profit who will give Serbia loans with high interest. But there will certainly be losers. You guessed it, the losers are all of us, first of all our children and grandchildren who will (we) pay back the debts that this government will one day leave behind through taxes, excise duties and other levies. As for the Expo, there is no doubt that we will pay much more for this project than it actually costs.

TO THE VERY END

If there was a serious feasibility study, it would foresee various risks, and not only those concerning long-term sustainability, but also those that, for example, could call into question the holding of the event itself. And that would make sense, given that Argentina pulled out of hosting the 2023 Expo in Buenos Aires due to the pandemic and the global economic crisis associated with it.

So, from a bad scenario there is an even worse one. Progressive activists list 20 and a half billion euros, and some kind of world crisis breaks out and the event does not take place at all. Should we present arguments about the "current world moment" in order to establish that something like this cannot be completely ruled out?