The recent visit of the director of the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States of America (CIA) William Burns to Bosnia and Herzegovina caused deep tremors not only on the political but also on the music scene. The previous anthem at the traditional Kočić choir in Stričići, performed by the president of the Republika Srpska entity Milorad Dodik, from "No one can do anything to us, we are stronger than fate" (especially popular at the time of the US sanctions against the RS officials) grew into "Everybody would be a fool to kill the wolf". What can be read between the lines of these verses, who are the fools, who are the wolves, who and what fate awaits them, who is for secession and who for an independent Republika Srpska, are questions that occupy numerous analyses, dialogue shows and declarations of politicians, just like interpretations. what was the first CIA man doing in the region. Only after he slept the night after Burns' arrival in Sarajevo and although he did not meet him personally, Milorad Dodik changed the game and shocked the majority of both politicians and citizens, not only in Bosnia and Herzegovina but also in the region, with the statement that "secession will never was not the policy of this entity".
"The Republika Srpska (RS) has never disputed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in accordance with the Dayton Agreement and secession has never been our policy," Dodik said shortly after his "right hand", the current Serbian member of the BiH Presidency Željka Cvijanović, met with William Burns in Sarajevo.
As usual, the very next day he traveled to Belgrade to discuss "energy and infrastructure projects" with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, completely ignoring the high-ranking guest from America, whom he later declared was not a bastard, unlike the American ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. whom Dodik has been insulting for a long time in the most primitive way. He even read his mind:
"As the director of the CIA nicely said, Dodik is not the only one responsible for the situation in BiH, but all three national parties. He thereby rejected the concept of civil BiH", said Dodik. And then everyone except the direct participant in the conversation, Željka Cvijanović, continued to read Burns' thoughts. For her, this was too serious a conversation to make a public statement about, and according to the Prime Minister of the Government of the RS, Radovan Višković, Burns did not teach a lesson only to the Serbs, but also to others in BiH. The director of the CIA came to Bosnia and Herzegovina to "collect some information that interests him", claims Višković.
MESSAGES FOR SERIOUS PEOPLE
After a few days, at dinner with an unnamed diplomat, Dodik realized the "secret" of the CIA director's visit and through social networks announced the diplomat's "interesting thinking" to the uninformed crowd: "For days I read that Mr. Burns came to Bosnia and Herzegovina to convey a message to Dodik. The director of the CIA is not a postman to deliver mail. The director of the CIA is a very serious man and a very serious official who conveys messages only to serious people. If Mr. Burns had a message for you, then you are a serious political figure. If he had no message for anyone else in BiH, then they are politically worthless. It turns out that you are the only serious political figure in BiH".
The President of the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska, Nenad Stevandić, knew that "only those from political Sarajevo, which is truly unbelievable to him, did not understand the messages of the head of the CIA about the need to de-escalate the situation in BiH and the region and the responsibility of everyone in that process that would preserve peace": " They simply put everything in the function of the conflict with Republika Srpska and by demonizing its leadership they try to play CIA spokesmen or paraphrase or even outright lie about the topics of the visit. The expensively defended and very rational neutrality of the RS seems to be more understandable to the head of the CIA, and it is still a thorn in their side. Raising the USA with hatred towards Russia and pointing the RS in that direction is very poor and low."
For Igor Crnatka, head of the Party of Democratic Progress club in the National Assembly of the RS, "it is depressing and sad to see Dodik and other officials of the Srpska retreating and how, on the occasion of the arrival of the CIA director, they compete to see who will be sprinkled with more ashes."
Crnadak says that the people of Republika Srpska deserve better leaders - serious and stable, collected at all times, who can be counted on, not "quasi-leaders who retreat, publicly tremble with fear and give up overnight everything they have been saying for years".
Jelena Trivić, the president of the People's Front and Milorad Dodik's opponent in the past parliamentary elections, showed Dodik's journey from a "brave secessionist to a complete creep in front of the head of the CIA" in a video clip. The Minister of Defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zukan Helez, sees the recent visit of NATO and CIA officials as the fruit of great diplomatic activity: "That visit is the fruit of our strong, great, diplomatic activity. Both mine and that of Mr. Konaković and other people in power, who are part of this patriotic, pro-Bosnia-Herzegovina bloc," Helez said in an interview with the daily newspaper "Oslobođenje". According to him, "Dodik is in serious trouble": "I don't wish harm on anyone, but since 2016, Milorad Dodik has been implementing this policy of blockades, and it has had a constantly upward trajectory. I think that the end of an era, a retrograde policy of Milorad Dodik, who represented, as he says, the RS, the smaller BiH. entity.”
Along the way, Helez expressed the hope that the new people who come to those positions will have a different approach to Bosnia and Herzegovina and its path towards Euro-Atlantic integration.
In all of this, the only thing that is certain is that the wolf did not stay in lamb's clothing for long, so Milorad Dodik, on the third day after Burns' departure, said from Manjaca that he was proud that the flag of Serbia was being flown at Kočić's choir, and not the flag of the country whose "sovereignty and territorial integrity was never disputed".
photo: tanjug / srnaAS DODIK SAYS, TODAY ONE, TOMORROW ANOTHER: Assembly of the Republic of Srpska
"GOODBYE BIH, WELCOME RS EXIT"
The astonishing short-term transformation of Milorad Dodik from a publicly declared separatist who for years promised the citizens of the entity referendums on the independence of the RS and its secession, to someone who never even thought about the independence of the entity that he ruled sovereignly for almost two decades, was quickly returned to the factory settings, so with Manjače issued a new threat: "If they touch our property, the Republika Srpska will become independent, and neither the director of the CIA nor anyone else who moves around here will help."
That is why it is surprising to connect the visit of the director of the American intelligence agency with state property, if Dodik initially welcomed the arrival of its first man in the light of the fight against terrorism, as "the obligation of the entire free world, given that the Republika Srpska is dedicated to that fight and welcomes any cooperation in that area".
Enver Halilović, the former ambassador of BiH to Russia, thinks that those who believed that Dodik changed after the visit of the head of the CIA were naive, and that he should be viewed as a whole in order to "understand him because one day is for secession and the next day says that secession was never considered". Halilović emphasizes that the Declaration from the All-Serbian Parliament is a legal and political document that represents a form of secession and unification of Serbia and Republika Srpska:
"The state property was also mentioned in the declaration. It is necessary to understand and analyze the political personality of Dodik. I will freely say that his political profile is hostapleray. The actor of an American thriller who creates scandals until someone confronts him. We can understand its action when it is viewed as a whole. We are for Bosnia and Herzegovina when the Dayton Agreement is respected, says Dodik, and then he interprets it as he wants. One day they want secession and the next they don't. He is playing with the political public in BiH. It creates a psychosis of instability and danger to living conditions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is one game that resembles those thriller movies. When looking at the relations between Serbia and the RS, we can compare them with the relations between Iran and Hezbollah. It's the same here. The government in the RS is the executor of the Serbian policy, which implements that Greater Serbian policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Now we are in danger like when Merkel introduced Russia in a way into the EU, and Russia almost broke up this community. Now Scholz is doing the same, presenting Serbia as democratic. However, it is a country that has pronounced ethnocentric values", says Halilović.
In fact, for Dodik, secession is a peaceful separation, the independence that, in his vision, is given by the Dayton framework, even though it does not allow entities to secede. From the floor of the RS National Assembly in February 2020, Dodik said "Goodbye BiH, welcome RS exit".
Steps towards legal secession were made in the National Assembly of the RS when the conclusions were adopted on the "anti-Dayton action of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina", the return to the "original Dayton", the abolition of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the return of the RS Army". In October 2021, Dodik announced the imminent independence of the entity.
"We are openly working on the project of an independent Republika Srpska within the Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina," he said at the time.
At the end of April last year, he was again explicit and decisive, talking about "coming out of the empty and imposed shell": "We do not live in BiH as a state, a shell was imposed on us, we would like to be with Serbia, that is the historical aspiration of our of the people", Dodik promised on RTS and stated that RS will be "an independent state and will achieve this in peace". And then he started the saga of peaceful disassociation, established the Commission for the Agreement on Peaceful Disassociation, offered plans to the Federation of BiH on how to carry it out, used the Resolution on Srebrenica in the UN General Assembly as a threat to this step... And then withdraws the same plan at twelve past five from the session of the National Assembly of the RS. Apparently under the pressure of some invisible hand.
The US Embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been criticizing the authorities in Republika Srpska for months. Among other things, they also warned foreign investors about the secessionist activities of the leaders in the Republic of Srpska.
"Potential investors want to know where the money is before planning an investment. The State Department has published an analysis of the situation for investments in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the year 2024, where investors are advised to do a rigorous legal check before investing in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is important to avoid exposure to US sanctions and confirm land ownership rights to avoid possible involvement in illegal and/or unconstitutional arrangements. This is especially important in Republika Srpska, where the secessionist activities of the leaders, efforts to unconstitutionally take control of state property and non-implementation of the High Representative's decisions create legal risks that further complicate the business environment", said the US Embassy.
In this context, an unnamed official of the US government said in a statement to Radio Free Europe that all the talks were aimed at "escalating the tension caused by Milorad Dodik. He stands openly with Vladimir Putin, with whom he has met several times since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine".
Bosnia and Herzegovina "joined" the EU sanctions, but did not implement them due to the opposition of political representatives from the RS in the State Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, led by Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD).
MOSCOW AND BELGRADE
The former Minister of Defense of Montenegro, Predrag Bošković, spoke for "Oslobođenje" about the visit of senior NATO and CIA security officials to Sarajevo, Belgrade and Pristina.
"In any case, the message is first of all to Milorad Dodik and his separatist tendencies that the United States of America will certainly not allow it nor will they look favorably on what Dodik and his people are doing in Bosnia and Herzegovina", he answered the question about what the visit means Bernsa region. "What remains unclear is that what is obviously not tolerated in Bosnia and Herzegovina is certainly tolerated in Belgrade, because I assume that even Milorad Dodik would not behave the way he does if he did not have the absolute support of Belgrade and Aleksandar Vučić. So, is it a question of some wider interest or what, but in any case, it remains a puzzle why the United States of America allows Belgrade to export instability beyond the borders of its country."
Professor at the Faculty of Criminal Sciences in Sarajevo, Edina Bećirević, in an interview for "Vreme", points to two important meetings that Burns had in Sarajevo, one with Almir Džuv, director of the Intelligence and Security Agency of Bosnia and Herzegovina (OSA), the other with members of the BiH Presidency. which included a person under American sanctions - Željka Cvijanović. According to Professor Bećirević, the meeting with Džuv is important "especially in the context of regional security and the fight against foreign influences, above all the malignant influence of Russia". According to her, Cvijanović was at the meeting to convey the message directly to Dodik.
"We don't know the content of Burns' messages at closed meetings, but the fact is that Dodik stated the day after Burns' visit that he never planned secession. This suggests that the message was very harsh. However, Dodik's quick return to secessionist rhetoric, by linking the issue of state property with the decision on secession, shows that US pressure was not enough to permanently restrain him. It is obvious that Dodik is unsuccessfully trying to balance between American pressure, which includes severe sanctions that caused the financial collapse of the Republika Srpska entity, and Russian instructions to maintain instability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dodik has long been one of the key Russian projects in the Balkans, and it is difficult to expect a significant change in its policy and strategic goals agreed with Russia. It is also interesting that "Pink" television, which is controlled by Aleksandar Vučić, broadcast a program two days after Burns' visit to Serbia in which Dodik was advised to leave the government. This can be interpreted as a result of CIA pressure on Vučić to distance himself from Dodik or as a tactic by Vučić to show cooperation towards the West while behind the scenes he continues to support Dodik's secessionist ambitions. That would be an established tactic that Vučić uses with the United States of America, but also with the West in general", concludes Bećirević.
The domestic actors are left to speculate and each interpret the topics of the conversation in their own way, the consequences of this visit and the projections of the future before all of BiH, which will certainly become clearer in the coming months.
