Where are the greatest chances for a change of government

Will it local elections in ten local self-governments, which will be held on March 29, will be a kind of political turning point for Serbia and the beginning of an accelerated end Serbian Progressive Party? It is difficult to give a clear answer.

Certainly, the victory of the anti-regime forces in at least one of these places will have a strong symbolic significance, which will give a wind at the back of the opponents of the government and quite upset and discourage the crew from Vučić's pyramid of power, from the top down, who anyway cannot get used to the new relationship of political forces, created after the fall of the Novi Sad canopy and the long-term and multidimensional student-citizen protests.

The regime itself is actually the most deserving of this symbolism, because it has declared all elections as fateful, for a war in which the opponents should be turned into minced meat. And because he has gathered around him people who play the "safe" game, they participate exclusively in races in which they are sure to win, which would mean - figuratively speaking - that they only start a game of chess if they have at least five or six pieces in excess, and the right to hit the opponent in the head with a club from time to time and steal his wallet. They easily desert and easily become witnesses-collaborators. And there will be something to witness, from Belgrade to Sevojno. The regime itself has turned every election into a vote "for and against Vučić", so any defeat in the local elections is also the defeat of the omnipotent and wanton president.

You should be optimistic and have hope, especially when the regime's propaganda is trying to kill it with all its artillery, but you should not exaggerate that either. Political psychology tells us that unrealistic expectations can lead to group depression, and that one should be especially careful in the interpretation of events, including possible defeats. If we look at things that way, then it can be said that the anti-regime bloc has already achieved victory in the upcoming local elections, even if the SNS remained in power in all electoral places. Why? Because there is no doubt that in all these self-governments, this block will achieve significantly better results than in the previous local elections, including in relation to the parliamentary elections in December 2023, which were actually a not very strong but important sign that the political situation in Serbia is changing. In this sense, the local elections of the previous year, especially those in Kosjerić, Zaječar and Mionica, represented the defeat of the regime.

In some of the election places, for the first time, there will be a strong opposition made up of respectable and quality people, many of whom have been in internal exile until now. The regime doesn't really know what to do with them. It is very possible that SNS will go into opposition in some of the municipalities, despite all the abuses, thefts, fake voters, threats, blackmail, slander, fraud and lies, which have become a key, if not the only, part of the progressive identity.

MORE REASONS FOR A GOOD MOOD

The anti-regime bloc has more reasons to be in a good mood. Thanks to the student movement as well as the passage of time, political chakras have opened up even in areas where media darkness reigns. Only a little light was needed for the citizens to realize that the country and their surroundings are ruled, populistically speaking, by Shalabizers and secikes. It's hard to imagine that level of jealousy when a progressive activist sees some, say, older people who until recently were nodding their heads in fear - hugging students as if they were the liberators. The progressives did not consolidate, their decline continues.

Actually, maybe it's better to say, they rot. It is a process that can take time, but it is irreversible. The good news is that the whole country did not rot with them. And that the student-citizen protest was not a dying cry, but something that lives and will live. This can be seen in the atmosphere before these elections, especially in areas that were once impregnable progressive fortresses.

The good news is that Vučić was quite relaxed. His angelic comparison of the students to the Taliban was also meaningless to his slaves. As if someone in passing explained to him the origin of the word "talib", so he decided to show his erudition, without thinking much. This is silly especially since his voters pretty much share a value system with the Taliban, respecting anything that carries a gun and instills fear in its bones.

MEN IN BLACK

The bad news, of course, is that elections are being held in only ten places, so the regime will direct all its forces towards them. It's a familiar repertoire, with all those armed, bald ruffians who come in expensive black vehicles and sow fear in the streets. It is already a tradition, these are more or less the same people who appeared in the first extraordinary local elections since "this" came to power in 2013. In fact, even before, they were the ones who "adapted" local authorities to republican ones, literally arrested people and took them to prisons-quarantines. The good news is that now they are not arriving in scared and dead places but among people many of whom have swallowed their own fear.

It is also good news that in most places students, civil movements and the opposition have found a common language. It is a sign that the student movement and civic initiatives are maturing and that currents are strengthening that understand that politics should also be pragmatic in order to achieve goals. Somewhere they didn't, there were even scandals and fights, for example in Smederevska Palanka, but my God, that's the dynamics of political life, one should learn from mistakes.

It is also good news that the national media, these independent ones, are full of stories about local elections. International factors are also interested. Local people are becoming aware of their own importance, which is also a sign of political maturation. There are many anecdotes, but also serious analyzes that testify to this: definitely, many voted in local elections for those who can "fix something for them in Belgrade". What would a man from Vojvodina say: if you want to get married in Begeč, don't go to Bačka Palanka! The fact that things are changing can be political capital for the future: increasing awareness of the importance of local governments and the need to decentralize the country, as reason dictates.

It can certainly be interpreted as good news that in all elections the government decided to go to the elections with all partners (only Stamatović's "Healthy Serbia" goes to the elections separately in Sevojno and Bajina Bašta), which is a clear sign of weakness. We won't talk about it now, until Ivica Dacic is completely healthy, but all this hints that SPS can slowly close the beer hall. This is a sign that his party was completely swallowed up by SNS.

HOW TO SWALLOW SESELJ?

In the multi-national Kula, the progressives brought the radicals and the Union of Vojvodina Hungarians into the coalition. The Vojvodina Hungarians somehow managed to swallow Vučić, primarily because of his good relations with Orban, but be a dude and swallow Seselj. Perhaps this is where the progressives made a mistake. What was important to them, however, was that because of Dont's system, they would be first in the elections, which means that their research is in favor of the fact that list number three (Voice of the Youth of the Kula Municipality) seriously threatens them. They also created a fake list of "young people". They brought the Ruthenian Party into the game, but it will be difficult to attract a significant percentage of the Ruthenian votes, which tend towards the student list.

HOW AND WHERE WHO STANDS?

Even the big surprise of the primaries, the so-called "Serbian Liberals", a phenomenon that will have lists in as many as eight out of ten local governments - according to some, it is not so bad news for the anti-regimes. Those who consider this list to be a "progressive hoax" tell us that Vučić has fallen to the bottom when he has to count on Dejan Žujović, the leader of the "liberals". They claim that Žujović received the full support of SNS for collecting signatures, that he was even given an expensive car for election needs, that he was seen leaving the presidency and hanging out with high-ranking progressives and the like. We are building a fence, it is very possible that these are just the scars that are so typical of our political scene. But it's really unusual that a small, relatively unknown organization manages to collect signatures in so many different places at once, so quickly and efficiently, and that it has people everywhere who will flock to its list.

In conversation with experts on local conditions, political, student and civil activists, we managed to conclude that the chances of the anti-regime bloc are greatest in Sevojno, Bor, Kula, Bajina Bašta and Arandjelovac. It is somewhat weaker in Smederevska Palanka, Kladovo, Majdanpek, Knjaževac and Lucani. Less because the anti-regime bloc was not very well organized, more because of the high starting position of the regime in certain parts of the country - analysts say that the SNS weakened the least in the south and east of Serbia. In Lucani, the "famous" factory "Milan Blagojević - Namenska" plays such an important role, which, as local journalists tell us, is a "hotbed of progressives", and which employs 1800 people, who are blackmailed and scared. Or they are simply progressives.

Political experts Dušan Vučićević and Dejan Bursać agree to some extent with our assessment, who shared with Vremena their projections of election events into ten self-contrasts, based on previous election cycles, demographic trends, and overall political processes in the country.

"If we talk about the decline of the SNS in absolute numbers, viewed solely through the results of the party itself, that decline is not dramatic. Most studies say that it ranges from around three to five percentage points. However, the picture changes when looking at the wider, so-called regime block, which does not only consist of the SNS, but also other parties that appear together with it. In that case, the decline is more pronounced. Part of the SPS voters, for example, switched to abstinence or turned to other political options outside the regime's In addition, the expected increase in turnout can significantly affect the total percentages. In contrast to the previous parliamentary elections, a greater mobilization of voters is expected in some areas, which can lead to a drop in the regime bloc in the range of five to eight percent, and in some municipalities, up to 10-15 percent," says Vučićević.

He says that, when it comes to regional differences, the smallest decline of the regime bloc is recorded in parts of southern and eastern Serbia. Therefore, in municipalities such as Knjaževac, Kladovo and Majdanpek, the anti-regime bloc can hardly achieve victory. In this context, a result of 30 to 35 percent for the opposition would represent a solid step forward compared to the previous elections.

"Essentially, the greatest chances for a good result for the opposition exist in the municipalities where the civil opposition in the 2023 parliamentary elections achieved a result at the level of the republican average. These are primarily Sevojno and Bor, where the opposition had about 25-26 percent of the vote. When looking at the total opposition, including the national one, the aggregate result in those areas reached 35-40 percent, which represents a good starting position. With the expected increase in turnout - somewhere bigger, somewhere smaller - as well as a slight shift of some voters towards the anti-regime bloc, these are precisely the municipalities where a competitive election race and eventual victory of the anti-regime bloc can be expected," he says.

According to him, Sevojno stands out because there is almost a referendum atmosphere there. The anti-regime bloc appears united through the list "United for Sevojno", while the regime comes out in two columns - through a broad coalition and through "Zdva Serbia", which appears independently. That party won over 20 percent of the vote in 2022, but now a much weaker result can be expected, probably at the level of the census and one mandate. In such an arrangement, it is crucial that the opposition list achieves a better result than the broad coalition list of the government, because in this way the mandate of "Healthy Serbia" would be taken away from the progressive quota.

photo: milos andrejic

"Bor is also an area with a good starting position for the anti-regime bloc, both in terms of demographics and the results of the previous elections. However, unlike Sevojno, there is no referendum atmosphere there. In addition to the main regime and opposition list, Predrag Balasevic's Wallachian Party is also participating, which can win one or two mandates. In addition, there are three other lists that will share part of the vote, which is why the main opposition list must achieve a more convincing result compared to the regime's in order to have a realistic chance for Nevertheless, Bor remains one of the municipalities where an uncertain race can be expected", says Vučićević.

Among the uncertain municipalities, Kula and Arandjelovac are included, each with its own specificities. There is a referendum atmosphere in Kula, and in Arandjelovac, which is quite right-oriented, the key question is whether the anti-regime bloc will gather the votes of those on the right who are not fans of the regime.

POSSIBLE CHAIN ​​REACTION

Dejan Bursać says that based on the results of the previous elections - both local and parliamentary in 2023 - it can be concluded that Bor could pose a serious challenge to SNS. If they were to lose power in this city, it would be a significant political blow for the regime, given its symbolic and political importance.

"A similar situation can be sensed in Arandjelovac, where there was strong resistance to the progressives in the previous elections. It is particularly noticeable that this resistance was largely borne by the right-wing opposition parties, such as 'Zavetnik' and 'Dveri'. However, it remains uncertain how the voters of those options will choose in the new political circumstances," he says.

Bursać says that the analysis of previous election results is not enough to reliably predict future outcomes, since the political scene in Serbia has changed significantly in the last year and a half, with "a new mobilization of voters and different dynamics on the ground."

photo: milos andrejic

"In certain areas, a potential drop in support for the Serbian Progressive Party is already visible. Sevojno stands out as a place where that party could have serious problems, while in Kula there is a high mobilization of opposition voters, which could threaten the existing balance of power. It is illustrative to look at the election results in certain municipalities where the SNS previously won between 70 and 80 percent of the vote, while in some places that support has now dropped to 50 to 60 percent. A drop of 20 to 30 percent in it represents a serious political signal to smaller communities", says Bursać.

According to him, it is only a matter of time before SNS could lose power in one of the local governments.

"Such a scenario would have wider political significance, since the SNS personalizes the elections through Aleksandar Vučić in almost all election campaigns. Therefore, a possible defeat at the local level could be perceived as a political defeat for Vučić himself. If the citizens notice that a change of government is possible, it could trigger a wider political effect and further weaken the dominance of the SNS - potentially triggering a chain reaction across the country," he says.

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