The Belgrade Stock Exchange, as a stock market, is in a very difficult state and without realistic prospects for significant improvement. Contrary to the implemented "modernization" of the stock market website and the very optimistic statements of government representatives, the stock market is on the verge of collapse. The last Report on the Stock Exchange's operations available on the website refers to the year 2022, and the last International Conference of the Stock Exchange was held in November 2019.
After the statements of the official representatives Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia in the middle of 2025, those less familiar with the state of the Serbian capital market might think that Belgrade Stock Exchange smile bright future. However, data from the past and the current actions of the authorities clearly indicate that this market institution in Serbia may be redundant. In the text that follows, the operations of the Belgrade Stock Exchange after 2012 will be analyzed, that is, an unbiased presentation of the development of the stock market in Serbia after the SNS came to power will be carried out.
At the very beginning, it should be pointed out that the number of shares on the Belgrade Stock Exchange in the observed period decreased drastically, which perhaps cannot be directly blamed on the government itself, but was mostly about the withdrawal of companies from the stock exchange for two reasons: the bankruptcy proceedings against the issuer and the termination of the status of a public joint-stock company.
At the end of 2012, 1081 shares were listed on the stock exchange, while in the middle of 2025, there are a total of 247 share issues on the aforementioned market. During the observed period, there were mostly 7 or 8 companies in the best segment of the market, but currently only 5 are listed. The number of shares in itself is not of crucial importance for the development of the stock market, but their liquidity is much more important. In this regard, it is important to look at the number of concluded share transactions and the realized turnover.
...Number of concluded share transactions in the period 2012–2024. years, in thousands
During 2012, 483.013 transactions were concluded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, only to be followed by a long-term decline. As a result, a total of 2020 transactions were concluded during 2021, 2022 and 59.601, while only 14.583 share transactions were concluded during the last year included in the analysis. Stock turnover had a variable movement over the years, but a significant decline of this parameter during the SNS era can also be clearly observed.
...Stock turnover on the Belgrade Stock Exchange in the period 2012–2024. year, in billion RSD
Slightly higher amounts of share turnover in certain years are the result of block transactions and forced buybacks of shares by some issuers, mainly due to the transition to a closed legal form and withdrawal from the market. In this regard, the large turnover of shares during 2019 was not achieved due to some favorable circumstances for the Belgrade Stock Exchange market, but due to the sale of the state stake in Komercijana banka, i.e. thanks to the block trading of this bank's shares in June and November 2019. Thanks to the sale of this bank, state revenue of around 450 million euros was achieved, but the stock exchange listing was left without another quality company.
...The structure of the total turnover in the period 2012–2024. year, in billion RSD
Furthermore, the increase in turnover in 2022 is the result of a block transaction in shares of NIS ad Novi Sad in May worth 7,2 billion. RSD, while the realized turnover in 2024 is the result of extensive trading in the shares of Messer Tehnogas and certainly in the shares of NIS. At the same time, it should be noted that more than 30% of the total share turnover on the Belgrade Stock Exchange is realized by trading in NIS shares. In this regard, it is important to note that trading in shares of this company during 2025 will most likely be at a historic low due to well-known political reasons and pressures. Therefore, it is clearly observed that after 2012 there was a significant drop in the liquidity of the stock market. On the other hand, since 2015, government bonds have been intensively included in the domestic stock market, whereby these financial instruments today account for approximately 90% of the total turnover. Contrary to this trend, in the period before 2012, shares had a dominant role in achieving total turnover on the stock exchange.
The structure of the total turnover clearly indicates that the Belgrade Stock Exchange in some way over time has become a "portal" for recording a smaller part of the state debt instead of representing a place of valuation and capital collection for public and successful companies.
Bearing in mind that the level of development of the capital market is generally viewed based on the number and quality of financial instruments, that is, the securities traded on it, it can be concluded that the Belgrade Stock Exchange is at a rather low level of development. In recent years, record low stock turnovers have been achieved on the stock market if only standard trading methods are observed. For the prosperous development of the capital market in the observed area, first of all, the true will and support of the ruling political structures is necessary. In addition, it should be borne in mind that the domestic economy is generally characterized by a low level of corporate culture, as well as a low level of confidence of small investors (individuals) and their lack of interest in investing in the stock market. Bearing in mind all the above, it is realistic to expect that the trend of collapsing the stock market in Serbia will continue until the inclusion of some new large and quality issuers.
It should be noted that, in addition to transactions concluded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, transactions concluded on the OTC market are also recorded and balanced in the system of the Central Register of Depository and Clearing Securities ad Belgrade. According to the Capital Market Law, the OTC market is a secondary market for trading financial instruments that does not have to have a market organizer and whose trading system involves negotiation between the seller and the buyer of financial instruments in order to conclude the transaction. The rules of operation of the Central Registry regulate that OTC transactions are performed through the auction platform of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia, the auction platform of the National Bank of Serbia, the user WEB application of the Central Registry and other platforms for over-the-counter trading. The largest value of settled transactions on the OTC market refers to the repo purchase and sale of financial instruments, specifically treasury bills of the National Bank of Serbia. Taken as a whole, transactions with financial instruments concluded on the OTC market account for about 99% of the value of all transactions settled at the Central Registry, that is, transactions concluded on the regulated market and the multilateral trading platform of the Belgrade Stock Exchange account for only about one percent. In this regard, in 2023, the World Bank approved 27,7 million euros to encourage the development of the capital market in Serbia, whereby a significant part of this program is intended for the development of corporate bonds.
The main incentive for the issuance of corporate bonds by domestic authorities is the involvement of the central bank in the role of buyer on the secondary market. As a result of this program, several issues of corporate bonds were realized, with the inevitable participation of social and state enterprises as issuers. Speaking of large social and state enterprises, it should be noted that around 4,8 million small shareholders and a larger number of investors have been waiting for Telekom and EPS to go public for more than 15 years. Recently, the Law on Amendments to the Law on Privatization from 2025 defined December 31, 2027 as the deadline for the transformation of public companies with social capital. In this regard, it can be said that this is perhaps the last chance for these large companies to appear on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, and perhaps to save the stock market in Serbia.
However, as it usually happens, as soon as there is a glimmer of hope for the development of the stock market in Serbia, politics again takes a dominant role. Although the Government of the Republic of Serbia itself determined the criteria according to which economic companies with state capital will change to the form of a joint-stock company or a company with limited liability, for who knows how many times the decision was made to the detriment of the joint-stock company. The public companies "Pošta" and "Srbijašume", in addition to meeting all the necessary conditions to become joint-stock companies, changed their legal form to LLC.
However, it should be noted that there may not be an intention of the current political structures to extinguish shareholding in Serbia, but the reason is ignorance. In this regard, it took almost ten years for capital market regulators to notice that Article 30 of the Law on the Right to Free Shares was in conflict with the Privatization Law. Perhaps, however, something else is hidden behind that. Those who are a little better informed know that the Privatization Act of 2014 abolished the possibility for employees of companies with state capital to receive shares of that company when they are privatized. In contrast, Article 30 of the Law on the Right to Free Shares provides exactly that, so it had to be deleted after more than nine years.
Based on the presented data and the conducted analysis, it can be concluded that the Belgrade Stock Exchange, as a stock market, is in a very difficult state and without realistic prospects for significant improvement. Contrary to the implemented "modernization" of the stock exchange website and the very optimistic statements of government representatives, the stock market is on the verge of collapse. The last one Business report of the stock exchange that is available on the website refers to the year 2022, and the last International Stock Exchange Conference was held in November 2019.
The author is a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Kragujevac
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