The established opposition parties are going to the extraordinary parliamentary elections on October 25 in three columns. Whoever does not pass the census has done the work for Aleksandar Vučić
Opposition parties they failed to unite before early parliamentary elections on October 25, despite the warnings of public opinion researchers that consolidation would be the most effective in the fight against the autocratic Serbian regime.
In the collision of two dominant competitors for change, i.e. preservation of the existing situation, the student movement that appears under the name "Student List - Students Win" and the coalition "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia", part of the opposition parties therefore, in the interest of replacing the progressive government, he decided not to participate in the elections and actively support the Student List.
The "European Serbia - Marinika Tepić - Zdravko Ponoš" coalition - the Freedom and Justice Party (SSP) of Dragan Đilas, the Ponoš Serbia Center (SRCE) and the Civil Solidarity Movement of Goran Ješić - estimated, however, that there is room in the electorate for established political parties that prioritize Serbia's membership in the European Union.
Opposite this option is the "Authentic Right" - which is actually the Serbian NADA coalition consisting of Miloš Jovanović's New DSS and the Movement for the Kingdom of Serbia (POKS) headed by Vladimir Jelić - where everything mainly revolves around Kosovo and Metohija.
The "People's Serbia" coalition - Miroslav Aleksić's National Movement of Serbia (NPS), Aleksandar Jovanović Ćuta's Ecological Uprising and Miloš Parandilović's Novo lice Srbija (NLS) - parties that are fighting for regime change and which apparently also estimated that together they can pass the 3 percent threshold, could be placed somewhere in the right center.
However, it will not be easy at all.
Judging by the referendum atmosphere that is burning in society for and against the government of Aleksandar Vučić, by the turbo-drive of the progressive electoral machinery and the unwavering enthusiasm shown by the supporters of the Student List, it can be assumed that the turnout will be significantly higher than usual.
In the parliamentary elections held in December 2023, the coalition gathered around the New DSS won 191.431 votes, and the coalition "Serbia against violence" (9 parties: SSP, SRCE, NPS, ZLF, DS, PSG, Ecological Uprising, Zajedno, Novo lice Srbije) won 902.450 votes. The turnout at that time was 58,77 percent, and there were officially 6.500.666 voters on the voter list.
Current Unified voter register, the correctness of which the opposition disputes, has grown since then to around 6,75 million registered voters. If it does not change, and the turnout is, say, 65 percent, about 132.000 votes will be needed to pass the 3 percent threshold.
This means that the three opposition coalitions would have to win at least 396.000 votes together and divide them equally in order to pass the census.
With a lower turnout, the number of votes needed to pass the census decreases, of course.
Given that the number of voters, i.e. citizens of legal age, is greater than the total number of inhabitants, which was 6.647.003 in the 2022 Census, the real turnout is actually much higher than the official one every time.
Previous public opinion surveys available to the public have shown that the Student List, a new organization on the Serbian political scene, will collect a huge number of votes from people who want to see the back of the regime of Aleksandar Vučić, let it even they give a significant advantage in relation to Vučić's "United Serbia".
After good results in the general elections on December 17, 2023, despite all the machinations of the regime and the importation of voters from Republika Srpska, the "Serbia against violence" coalition broke up over the dilemma of whether or not, under such bad conditions, the second part of the local elections should be boycotted, and above all, the repeated Belgrade elections on June 2, 2024, which occurred due to a stalemate in the City Assembly.
The parties of Dragan Đilas, Zdravko Ponoš and Miloš Jovanović called for boycott and surrendered the capital without a fight to the regime of Aleksandar Vučić.
Since then, election conditions have not improved, but have become even worse. Boycott was not an option for them this time, but after unsuccessful attempts to seriously unite the opposition parties, between the possibility of supporting the Student List and going to the elections, they decided on this second option.
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