The Serbian energy industry is in a difficult position, because the system has been neglected for decades in terms of investments, and as for security, the de-diversification of supply was only started after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. At the moment when Europe introduced sanctions In Russia, Serbia remains the only country where the entire oil system is in the hands of Gazprom, which was sanctioned by the United States in January, write Aleksandra Nenadović and Aleksandar Milošević in The new economy.
The authorities in Serbia requested a postponement of the start of their implementation, however, according to New Economy sources, who know the situation in detail NIS-, the security of supply will be in question in the coming days.
As Nova ekonomija learns, banks in Serbia have set Saturday, February 22, as the day when they will close NIS accounts and stop conducting transactions with that company. Such a decision will have dramatic consequences for the NIS, but it is not the end of the problems for the NIS or for the citizens, Aleksandar Nenadović and Aleksandar Milošević write in an article for New Economy.
"A company ceases to exist when its accounts are closed." Even if someone wants to violate sanctions, there is no way to pay money to NIS. The Government of Serbia really must not play with it because it can itself come under the influence of sanctions", says the interlocutor of New Economy and adds that what was proposed as a solution, for intermediaries to buy oil and resell it to NIS, is not achievable because they would also come under the influence of sanctions.
Another New Economy source also confirms that the banks will stop cooperating with NIS, except perhaps Poštanska štedionica, which is owned by the state. In addition, another bank is currently planning to continue servicing the NIS until February 27, hoping for a last-minute political agreement.
The consequence of the closure of NIS bank accounts is, according to a person familiar with oil sanctions, that NIS gas stations will also cease to operate soon after, Nova ekonomija writes.
If a bank still keeps the company's account open, it could prolong their work for a few days. The company, according to the sources with whom New Economy spoke, considered the possibility of continuing to work by accepting only cash at the pumps, in case it was prevented from accepting cards, but it was concluded that such a way of working would be unfeasible in practice and that the company would in any case have a problem with all other payments that must be made within the banking system.
But, although fuel may not be able to be dispensed at the pumps owned by NIS, all other gas stations will continue normal operation in Serbia, such as OMV, MOL, Shell and others. MOL confirmed to RTS that they are ready to double fuel deliveries to Serbia and that they are working with the Hungarian and Serbian authorities to simplify the procedures for its transport. In addition, Serbia also has oil and fuel reserves sufficient for two months, and in addition, NIS itself has its own reserves. However, the question is how to deliver this fuel to consumers in the event that NIS pumps are closed.
According to NIS data, that company manages a network of over 400 gas stations in the Balkan market under two brands - NIS Petrol and the premium brand Gazprom. According to data from the Ministry of Foreign and Internal Trade of Serbia from May last year, there are 1.529 gas stations in Serbia, of which NIS runs 324, and Lukoil and Knez Petrol have more than a hundred.
However, NIS holds about 80 percent of the Serbian oil derivatives market, and in terms of retail sales, slightly less than half, which is why there is no doubt that the termination of this company's work would cause a strong disruption in the fuel market.
The decades-long warnings of energy experts that the supply of energy must be distributed among different countries and forms in Serbia did not bear fruit. Only in the last two years have investments in the energy sector increased, so that the country has lost the race for a security-resistant energy system in the geopolitical realignment. As many times before, investments went mainly to EXPO, stadiums, roads, armaments. We are once again dealing with the energy system late and under the pressure of sanctions.
JANAF and supply
JANAF, the Croatian oil pipeline that supplies NIS with all its imported oil, told Nova Ekonomija that they still hope for an exemption from sanctions.
"JANAF dd, through its American lawyers and in coordination with the Government of the Republic of Croatia, submitted a request to OFAC to obtain a license to implement the contract with NIS. OFAC has the authority to grant exceptions within certain sanctions programs, and we expect that a license for such exceptions could be obtained for the implementation of the oil transport contract we have with NIS. "It is not in anyone's interest that Serbia is left without a safe supply of oil, and we believe that a compromise solution will be reached that will enable the fulfillment of contractual obligations towards NIS," JANAF said.
Goran Radosavljević, a professor from the FEFA faculty, told our newsroom earlier that he doubts that any company from the USA will be interested in NIS, because there were rumors that the American Shell could be a potential buyer.
"Mol may not have an economic interest, because they have enough of their own refineries, but it has a political interest to buy NIS." It seems more realistic to me that some players from the Middle East appear. It wouldn't surprise me if the Russians don't want to sell their stake. They have no interest in getting out of here unless someone forces them, and I don't see anyone forcing them. If they decide to stay, the company can go bankrupt and that creates a problem for the state. In that case, the state would be forced to put the company under its control," says Radosavljević.
NIS was sold for EUR 400 million in 2008 to Gazprom.
Under the sanctions of the USA, apart from NIS, which was prevented from doing business indirectly through Gazprom, local politicians were also on this list, namely the current ministers Aleksandar Vulin and Nenad Popović.
Source: New Economy
