Sometimes great progress can be glimpsed through seemingly small steps. So is the news that he is American State Department "welcomed the steps taken by the authorities" Republika Srpska towards the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina" caused an avalanche of interpretations - from euphoria in Banja Luka to caution in Sarajevo. What is hidden behind diplomatic language, a turn of American policy or a carefully measured signal that shows a chance for progress and prosperity?
According to Reuters, Brandon Hanrahan, State Department official in charge of European and Eurasian affairs, said that "the United States welcomes the decision of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska that affirms the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina and paves the way for a constructive partnership with the United States, based on shared interests, economic potential and shared prosperity."
A day earlier, the US Ministry of Finance removed from the blacklist four BiH citizens from Republika Srpska, the closest associates of the former president of the RS Milorad Dodik, who were sanctioned for actions challenging the constitutional order of BiH. At the same time, the RS National Assembly appointed Ana Trišić Babić as interim president, after Milorad Dodik lost the right to hold public office, and withdrew several laws that were seen as separatist.
It is important to understand Hanrahan's statement that it does not appear on the official website of the State Department. When Washington decides to "blow" a signal through Reuters rather than through its own channel, it usually means sending a message rather than announcing a firm policy change.
Cooperation with RS is possible again
Some in Republika Srpska still consider that statement "as big as a house", and some experienced Bosniak politicians privately read it as a sign that "a big deal has been made". Why? First of all, because during the past years the trend was quite different - every new statement and action of the American and even European institutions towards the Republika Srpska was more and more harsh.
And indeed, bearing in mind that it was not a statement about wishes but about reality - it came after concrete and political decisions implemented at the highest level in Republika Srpska - and considering that it was also followed by concrete actions of the American administration, it is certainly very significant.
However, it would be wrong to understand it as if the work is finished. Instead, she says that the cooperation of the USA, and very likely the EU, with the elected authorities in Republika Srpska (and not some other, imaginary one) is again possible and very real. We also put the EU in this context because there are increasingly strong demands in American politics, from the ruling part of the political spectrum, that the foreign policy towards the Balkans be coordinated with the EU as much as possible.
Undoubtedly very significant, the statement by the US official is not a sign of a change in US policy, but a strong signal of opportunities for prosperity. The State Department has, in fact, shown that the "way back" is open to those who show a willingness to take institutional responsibility.
Dodik remains under sanctions
It should also be known that this signal does not refer only to the Republika Srpska, because the problems in BiH are generated from several sides. Dodik was only the most exposed, thanks to his brash rhetoric and willingness to move from harsh words to actions.
He himself remains under sanctions for now. His name is not mentioned in the statement, either as an obstacle or as a potential interlocutor. In this absence of personalization lies the second part of the unspoken message: the essential problem is not the Republika Srpska itself, nor Milorad Dodik subjectively and unchangeably, but each and everyone's politics that weaken BiH. Whether that can change - whether Dodik and the politics he represents can remain committed to the idea of a strong Republika Srpska, but not to the detriment of BiH, remains to be seen in the future.
A lesson for all national actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina
It is also important how other national actors in BiH will interpret the situation; if they think that all this concerns only Republika Srpska and applies only to it, they will miss an important lesson. As already written, challenges for BiH come from all sides, and the right answer to them is self-respect and taking responsibility - and not in any way, but constructively towards BiH, and not a vassal spirit.
It is a pity that, through the rhetoric of Aleksandar Vulin, one hears cynicism or even a refusal to acknowledge that such an event could be positive for Serbia. The statement that "The taste of defeat will not be able to disappear for a long time" regarding the decisions of the Assembly of Srpska, which removed the greatest pressure from the RS, is difficult to understand even from the point of view of Serbian nationalism.
Since when is it better for Serbia and Serbs that Republika Srpska is in conflict with the USA? How can something that led to the first positive signal from the US in many years be a "defeat"? It is difficult to understand, but not impossible. That episode reminds us of the question we asked two years ago, in a slightly different context, in the text "Does BiH love itself more than it does not love Dodik".
Is Bosnia and Herzegovina capable of overcoming conflicts?
But let's go back to BiH. The new development of events reopens the essential question - are political actors in BiH, and all of them, and not only from Srpska, capable of overcoming mutual animosities and building stability out of self-respect, and not out of fear of punishment? Before the latest decisions of the Assembly of Srpska, and the American cautious but encouraging approach, that question was meaningless - the reality obviously answered with "no". Today, opportunities are opening up and the outlook looks better.
If the Republika Srpska authorities want to take advantage of this moment, they must prove in the next year that the decisions of the National Assembly were not a tactical maneuver, but the beginning of real institutional stabilization.
Three steps are crucial: consistent respect for the constitutional order of BiH, and not occasionally, when pressure comes from outside, but as a permanent commitment; a full and sincere return to the joint institutions of BiH - because participation in the state bodies of BiH is the best way for the RS to be heard and respected; redirecting political energy towards development - economy, education and infrastructure are areas where RS has something to offer and where it can get support from the West.
In translation: if Banjaluka shows that it can be a predictable partner, the State Department will know to reward it more concretely than a single sentence placed on Reuters.
The USA did not change sides, they just opened the door - but the catch, for now, is on the inside, and not only in the room called Republika Srpska.
