"Brave as a lion, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic fights for Serbian interests. At least that's the impression anyone who has followed some of his recent statements can have," writes the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung regarding the situation regarding The oil industry of Serbia and the threat of sanctions that recently arrived from Washington.
At the beginning of the article, the well-known facts are stated - that the outgoing Biden administration imposed sanctions on the Russian oil industry, and thus on the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), which is majority owned by Russia's Gazprom. The author of the article, Michael Martens, in the text titled "Serbian contribution to the Russian war budget", reminds readers that this is an extremely profitable and large company that has more than 5.000 employees in Serbia alone and several thousand more in the region, as well as more than 400 gas stations. writes DW.
"It is the biggest taxpayer in Serbia." In addition, NIS influences Serbian society in other ways, for example as the main sponsor of the Crvena Zvezda football club. The annual net earnings, which are measured in the three-digit number of millions, remain for Russia's war budget."
"However, that business model is threatened by American sanctions." Russia must withdraw from the economically and above all politically profitable business in Serbia by February 25, with a transitional period of 15 days for the sale to the new owners. If that does not happen, the sanctions could hit Serbia with all their force. Big inflation and an acute energy crisis are threatening," writes Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Plenković as a representative of Serbia's interests
The author writes from Zagreb and explains that official Croatia wants to avoid such a development:
"The Prime Minister of Croatia is eager to avoid that." Back in December 2024, when it was leaked that the next US package of sanctions would hit Serbia, Plenković stated that it was necessary to find a sustainable solution. After Plenković's conversation with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Brussels, his statement is quoted that it is not in anyone's interest to leave Serbia without fuel supply. According to him, Croatia will not be at the forefront of that policy."
Then it is explained that perhaps Plenković's commitment to the well-being of Serbia seems surprising, since he is not in love with the president of that country, but it is also reminded of the fact that the Serbian oil industry is almost entirely supplied by the Adriatic oil pipeline, which has been running from the Croatian island of Krk since Yugoslavian times.
"The pipeline system and a number of warehouses connected to it are majority owned by the state-owned company JANAF, which regularly fills the coffers of the government in Zagreb with profits." And the most important customer of JANAF is Gazprom Neft from Novi Sad. In other words, Croatia also benefits from Russian business in Serbia. Without a Russian company in Serbia as a customer, the future or at least the profitability of JANAF would be called into question."
Sale? Nationalization? Buying time?
The German newspaper reports speculations in Belgrade and Zagreb about what the solution could look like:
"Sale to a neutral company, say a Greek one? Forced nationalization? That is not an option, because Vučić does not want to spoil relations with Moscow, especially since he soon has to negotiate with Putin about a new gas contract. That Balkan state did not join the sanctions against Russia and was rewarded with deliveries of cheap Russian gas. But will that also apply in the event that Russia has to hand over the most important instrument of economic and political influence in Serbia?"
"For now, Moscow and Belgrade are buying time," writes the Frankfurt newspaper. "The Serbian Ministry of Energy announced that the NIS asked Washington to postpone the sanctions for 90 days. This request is supported by the governments of Serbia and Hungary. Obviously, there is hope that Trump will be persuaded to lift the sanctions of his predecessor or at least prevent their implementation."
It is also assessed that Hungary's support is a "smart calculation": "Trump has a high opinion of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and on the other hand, he is good with Vučić, since both have developed a similar model of government in their countries."
"Orban and Vučić, however, are preparing another big thing, which should strengthen Russian influence in Southeast Europe like few events in previous decades." In October 2022, Belgrade and Budapest announced that they would connect the north of Serbia and Hungary with pipes, in order to connect there to the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, which has supplied Hungary with Russian oil since Soviet times. Only last week, the Serbian government confirmed that plan. The technical preparation will be completed in 2025, and the construction in 2027," Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung says, but with the assessment that "it is unclear who will then own the Serbian oil industry."
