The results of the first round confront Đukanović with a dramatic fact for him - that the trend of falling trust in the Democratic Party of Socialists continues, but also that his popularity is lower than that enjoyed by the party he leads. The success of Jakov Milatović and the continued growth of the popularity of the Europe Movement cannot now be interpreted only by what analysts call "strategic overflow of votes".
photo: risto bozović...
Montenegrin citizens have distributed the ducks to the elites of all political entities that participate in any way in the government in Montenegro. In other words, the vice-president of a non-parliamentary party, Jakov Milatović, strongly grabbed the electorate, gaining almost 30 percent of the trust of the citizens who came out on Sunday to elect a new president. This was not the first test of the potential of the Europe Now Movement (PES), which already showed in last year's local elections in more than half of Montenegrin municipalities that it strongly rode the wave of discontent of the Montenegrin population caused by the political and institutional crisis. But, this is primarily a message addressed to those who are considered the winners of the parliamentary elections in 2020, and to those who lost their absolute dominance on the political scene after almost three decades. That voter message is about – changes. Not only in narratives, but also changes in policy makers. This time, the citizens went to vote unburdened by fear and with a clear determination to return the entire process to its original meaning - election. This is perhaps the biggest step forward made last weekend in Montenegro.
This is the first time that the new president of Montenegro will be decided in the second round of voting and the first time that, by all accounts, the candidate of the Democratic Party of Socialists is not the absolute favorite. There is every chance that Jakov Milatović, who received the undivided support of the parties whose candidates did not make it to the second round, has a significant advantage over the current president of the state, Milo Đukanović. Đukanović will find himself at the polls for the first time on April 2 in a situation he is not used to and has no experience with - uncertainty.
The results of the first round revealed another dramatic fact for him. Not only does the trend of falling trust in the Democratic Party of Socialists continue, but its popularity is lower than the reputation of the party it leads. He came to these elections as an undisputed leader and an influential political figure, who will be a barrier against negative trends and a stabilizing factor for the party he has led almost since its foundation. It is shown, however, that he is the main ballast to its reform and adaptation to the new balance of power and that the citizens see this, even those who support the DPS.
photo: zoran žestićHINT OF FINAL TRIUMPH: J. Milatović
WHAT MILO IS HIDING IN HIS POCKETS?
Milo Đukanović enters the second round of the presidential elections with Jakov Milatović. He commented on that by asserting that the results are exactly as they expected and that they know in which "pockets" the resources are hidden that will lead him to the final victory. Jakov Milatović presented the result not only as a success for PES, but also as a victory for all those forces that fought against the politics that Đukanović personifies, as he said, "a man of the past, division and poverty". He called the messages of support sent to him by Andrija Mandić (DF), Aleksa Bečić (Democrats), Dritan Abazović (URA) and Predrag Danilović (UCG) "very good", emphasized that they all have an obligation to seal victory in the second round and in thus opening the door for a "more democratic and economically developed Montenegro".
The fact that the DPS candidate won the most votes in the first round is obviously no guarantee of his inviolability in the continuation of the election. The reality says exactly the opposite. Although Đukanović's party received the most support from the citizens in the previous elections for deputies, it failed to secure a parliamentary majority and today it participates in the work of the parliament from the opposition benches. But what are the resources that the current president is counting on? We are talking, first of all, about the electorate in the areas inhabited by less numerous peoples, where in the earlier elections he won a much larger number of votes, and certainly the numerous diaspora that was obviously not activated at the start of the race. Apart from the "awakening" of the Albanians and Bosniaks, who apparently stayed at home in the first round, Đukanović will have to sharply increase the turnout of his own electorate and that of his traditional partners, the Liberal Party and the Social Democrats, and wake them up from the "victory lethargy" that had to be interrupted before two years.
photo: risto bozovićFAILED MARKETING: A. Mandić and M. Đukanović
MEETING AT THE HILTON
The decision of Milo Đukanović and Andrija Mandić to spoil the game, avoid the announced second round of confrontation on the public service and independently finish the dialogue in the Hilton hotel, reclining in armchairs similar to those in the Green Lounge of the hotel "Crna Gora", did not help either of them. The camera with a diffuse filter, as in romantic lemonades, those in almost identical suits and tufted ties, where the second's tie is the negative of the first's tie, only increased the awareness of the directedness of the entire event. The message about the importance of democratic dialogue hit the wall of unfoundedness of that surrogate of political reality. This breaking of previous agreements was surely punished in the first round, the citizens proved to be far more mature than the creators of this electoral happening concluded. And indeed, it was hard to expect that the main creators of the division of the citizens of Montenegro along national lines and the key generators of deep intolerance overnight became promoters of democratic dialogue and compromise.
Although the change in their political narratives should be welcomed, the conclusion is self-evident that it will be very difficult for them to return to a recognizable conflict model of political behavior. Even today, they would like to forget that meeting at the Hilton. Đukanović is already in the fight to keep the presidential chair, and then both of them are in the process of winning parliamentary seats. The new change would only convince the citizens of their insincerity and deepen further mistrust.
Đukanović's election strategists will certainly be fired very quickly for claiming that the dissolution of parliament and the scheduling of extraordinary parliamentary elections will be a move that will raise him on the electoral ladder. Not only has that not happened, but the elections scheduled for June 11 now seem not only too close, but dramatically dangerous. Precisely because of the fact that any strategic change in political narratives will be experienced primarily as electoral manipulation and will send a message of panic and inconsistency.
RE-GROUP IN THE CENTER
The continued growth of PES's popularity cannot be explained only by what analysts call "strategic overflow of votes". We are talking about a situation in which citizens evaluate the potential results and chances of candidates in the second round and make decisions based on these evaluations, and not on the sympathy they have for the candidate of the political group they belong to or gravitate towards. Namely, Milatović's result is ten percent better than the one achieved by the Movement Europe now in the October elections. If we add to that the same percentage of lower turnout than in October, we are facing a far more serious strategic change, and not just a mere overflow of votes. Of course, we should not ignore the events that preceded Milatović's candidacy. The citizens saw the non-acceptance of the candidacy of his party colleague Milojko Spajić as unfair and as an attempt to eliminate the most serious competitor to Đukanović.
Why is everyone feverishly analyzing the results of the first round? Because they largely reveal the picture of the balance of power in the future parliament, the ups and downs of the current party leaders, but also the appearance of the future Government. Especially since the campaign for the parliamentary elections has just started with this race for the president and does not leave much room for serious maneuvers. The Democratic Front is facing an announced drop in support, the Democrats are stagnating and a strategic agreement with the URA Movement, which failed to materialize through electoral votes, offers a broad center coalition to the Europe Now Movement. Europe has now positioned itself as the force with the greatest negotiating capacity, and it is certain that it will dictate the terms of any coalition lists. They rode firmly on the wave of citizens' dissatisfaction, and if they are aware of the fact that every wave hits the coast at some point, they can indeed change the political scene of Montenegro as early as June.
If Jakov Milatović becomes the new president and remains consistent in his message that he will be a representative of all citizens, he is expected to leave his party positions. If he does that, which would be a further democratic step forward, PES will have one less advantage already in the elections in June. Victory always has its other face. Otherwise, PES could turn out to be just another face of the Democratic Party of Socialists. More populist and less nationalist.
Electoral percentages
Milo Đukanović and Jakov Milatović will face each other in the second round of the presidential elections. In the first round, the current president of Montenegro and the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Milo Đukanović won 35,37 percent of the vote (or 119.673 votes), the deputy president of the Europe Now Movement (PES) Jakov Milatović 28,92 (97.858), and one of Democratic Front (DF) champion Andrija Mandić 19,32 percent (65.386). The President of the Democrats of Montenegro Aleksa Bečić received 11,10 percent (37.562), the representative of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Draginja Vuksanović Stanković 3,15 (10.669), the President of the United Montenegro Goran Danilović 1,38 (4.652), while the independent candidate Jovan Radulović won 0,76 percent (2.574).
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