Puff, puff and there is no Europe now

What was expected many months ago, happened. Disagreements between the leaders of the Europe Now Movement (PES) turned into a split. The great wave of success of PES was finally interrupted by hitting the rocky coast of Montenegrin political reality. State President Jakov Milatović left all positions in the party he co-founded. Yesterday's colleagues welcomed it with delight. Now everything is just a matter of answering the question of whether Milatović chose a good or bad moment for such a decision.

But what was the environment in which he made this move?

Let's say Tuesday. A seemingly ordinary day in Podgorica. Parliament Speaker Andrija Mandić received in the Assembly Milorad Dodik, the President of Republika Srpska whose business is under US sanctions. In front of the parliament building, citizens are protesting shouting "Fascists!". BiH flag on the protective fence. The reception takes place on the 31st anniversary of the crime against Muslims in Štrpci. The Bosniak party, which is speculated to enter the government together with representatives of the "Serbian world" during its reconstruction, declares that Mandić is turning Montenegro into a promoter of Russian policy in the Balkans. European Commissioner for Enlargement Oliver Varhelji arrived in the capital of Montenegro on the same day. Previously, he wrote on the X network (Twitter) that Montenegro is the most advanced of the candidate countries in the accession negotiations and that "we are all ready to close the temporary benchmarks".

Varhelji met with Milatović, a meeting with Mandić and a dinner with Prime Minister Spajić were announced. On the other hand, the speaker of the parliament said in the previous days that he did not know whether Dodik would meet with Milatović or Spajić. Of course, it is more about political alarmism than accurate information. At the same time, the media reported that the trial of the former president of the Supreme Court, Vesna Medenica, was postponed indefinitely. What will be closed first - the accession chapters or Medenica, and whether Dodik was brought in as a scarecrow for the EU or as a challenge to the Bosniak party to condition its eventual entry into the government by terminating the PES coalition agreement with the New Serbian Democracy and the Democratic People's Party - it could be one from cynical comments.

ONE HUNDRED DAYS OF DISINTEREST

It is obvious that in Montenegro everything works like a colorful orchestra. Everyone plays their own tune. The dissonant tones are so strong that no one even schedules rehearsals for the main musicians anymore. The aforementioned sketch of an ordinary day in Podgorica is not at all different from the picture of what preceded the separation of the president of the state and the prime minister.

Glamorously marking the first hundred days of the government, while ignoring the parliament, Spajić promoted a new political pattern - "I'm not interested in that". He is not interested in upheavals in the security sector, nor who will be the first man of the National Security Agency, even though that is his competence, nor is he interested in identity issues, nor in displaying the flags of other countries. He continued his ignorant attitude towards parliament by comparing the events at the House Security Committee to the men's locker room of a high school club even though, by his own admission, he has not watched it and has no intention of doing so. And the eight-hour session of this Committee changed a lot in Montenegro. And most likely it was the trigger for President Milatović's decision to leave his post in PES.

BLUE NOTEBOOK AND YELLOW BOARD

Almost any statement that was made at the Parliamentary Committee on Insanity could have made a good headline in any tabloid. The committee was supposed to be a control hearing of SDT Vladimir Novović and the head of the special police team Predrag Šuković in connection with the Do Kwon case, i.e. the alleged attempt by former Prime Minister Dritan Abazović and the then Minister of the Interior Filip Adžić to weaken the pre-election positions of the current Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić by accusing him for business contacts with the South Korean "cryptocurrency king", who is awaiting extradition to either his home country or the US. At the time, the PES official, and now the Minister of Justice, Andrej Milović filed a criminal complaint against Abazović and Adžić for fabricating the affair. Because of this case, Spajić eliminated Abazović's URA Movement from the list of potential partners in the formation of the parliamentary majority.

The multi-hour session of the Security Committee, which was broadcast by the Parliamentary channel TVCG, however, did not reveal any new details of the Do Kwon affair, but opened up so many new surprising mutual accusations that, with the best of intentions, they cannot fit into one journalistic text. And all that took the work of the Committee far from the planned agenda. Thus, the Minister of Justice Andrej Milović accused the head of the special police unit of being connected to the organized criminal group Budva. He informed the public that he handed over documents to the Special Prosecutor's Office about Šuković's alleged embezzlement of apartments. He also asserted that the name of the head of the special police team was also found in the "Blue Notebook" affair and portrayed him as an informal consultant of the then MP Milo Božović, who would later become the president of the Municipality of Budva. Milović, who is a member of the Democratic Front, now performs this function from prison, where he is under indictment for belonging to a drug clan.

Šuković did not remain indebted to the Minister of Justice and accused him that, before he sat down in the ministerial chair, he requested that a woman with whom he was in an emotional relationship be removed from the list of persons of security interest (BIL) and that she had previously been in a relationship with the murdered man. the first man of one of the Montenegrin clans. He also accused him, showing photographs, of contacts with organized criminal groups and stated that Milović's car was seized in Bosnia and Herzegovina last week with a large amount of drugs. The minister replied that he had sold the car and since then it had changed hands three times.

In the following, the board "entertained" the Montenegrin public with the roles of political officials in affairs related to foreign citizens. Abazović and Adžić accused the Minister of Justice of refusing to extradite Binali Čamgoz to Turkey, which is looking for him for several crimes, including the creation of a criminal organization and attempted murder, despite the decisions of the Montenegrin courts. They suspect potential high level corruption, and Adžić called Milović a mafia protector. The Minister of Justice responded with a "contra case" claiming that Abazović is friends with Telman Ismailovii, who was granted political asylum during his minority government and that the SDT has opened a case on that event. Milović previously claimed that someone from Abazović's government "directly took money" in order for Ismailov to receive asylum.

Thus, SDT Vladimir Novović's presence at the Board turned into gathering a list of new cases that he will have to initiate. In fact, the tendentious and utilitarian statements of Montenegrin politicians look less and less like spin, and more and more reveal their connections - indirect or direct, conscious or unconscious, or careless with criminal structures and/or BIL persons. And it is quite possible that the statement that the criminal octopus has captured the entire social reality is so close to the truth that you have to run into it everywhere you turn.

FALL OF THE CLAN "MAJOR"

On the other hand, what was often presented to the public as spin, as time goes on, is revealed not as a distortion of the facts, but as the truth. When the minority government of Dritan Abazović was replaced in August 2022, allegedly due to the signing of a "fundamental agreement" with the Serbian Orthodox Church and slow European integration, the prime minister at the time claimed that the reasons for replacing the government were completely different and accused DPS Milo Đukanović of being connected to crime. Then, in the Assembly, he made the claim that the Montenegrin construction giant Bemax, i.e. its owners and the "Grand" clan, are at the top of the criminal pyramid. The owner of Bemaks, Ranko Ubović, Aleksandar Mijajlović, and former high-ranking official of the National Security Agency (ANB), Zoran Lazović, sued Abazović for defamation. The presidential and extraordinary parliamentary elections have passed, the 44th government was formed, Abazović remained in the opposition, and the development of events shows that he was most likely right.

Namely, in a major operation of the Special State Prosecutor's Office last week, Aleksandar Aco Mijajlović, police officers Milenko Mića Rabrenović, Radoje Rabrenović, Dragan Backović and Mirko Mijušković were arrested on charges of creating a criminal organization and smuggling. Among those arrested are Dejan Jokić, Golub Vojinović, Milan Vukadinović, Zoran Žuti Đukanović, Milan Rogač and Mileta Simanić. As is suspected, based on the Sky correspondence submitted by Europol, the main organizers of this group, known as "Grand", are Mijajlovic and a person whose identity has not yet been established. Mijajlovic is reputed to be a co-owner of Bemax, although his name does not officially exist in the company's papers. Insiders claim that his arrest is perhaps the most significant event since the crackdown on organized crime began.

The accusations at the Security Committee and the aforementioned arrests bring back the reasons for removing Abazović from power and pushing him into the opposition, in which, by the way, he feels extremely well for now. It certainly increases his rating and the public's belief in his claims or expressed doubts.

GOOD FOR THE MINISTER NOT FOR A DOG

In the continuation of these events, the first victim of the aforementioned Security Committee meeting is the current Minister of Justice, Andrej Milović. Although this was not stated as an immediate reason, and the actual reason did not even reach the ears of the public, Milović was excluded from the Europe Now Movement. The man who claimed to be the "political backbone" of Milojko Spajić, lived to be a "victim", as they said in PES, of "a little housekeeping". In the aforementioned purge, the PES committees in Podgorica and Bar were also dissolved, apparently as places where Jakov Milatović has a dominant influence.

On that occasion, the PES presidency noted the resignation of the state president and their vice president from all positions in the party, considering that by that act he resigned from the Movement, although Jakov Milatović did not mention it in his resignation. I guess something can be sensed?

Milatović stated in his resignation that when founding PES, they promised transparency in work, rational and reasoned dialogue about policies that are inclusive and sustainable, that they promised a different political culture based on respect for diversity and affirmation of European values. "The current way of working is contrary to the promises and values ​​that I had in mind when creating the Movement," wrote Milatović.

PES announced that it is good that Milatović realized that it was time to leave the movement so that society would not suffer due to personal dissatisfaction. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić has not commented on these events for the time being, in line with the "I'm not interested in it" narrative. Milović is still the Minister of Justice who is waiting for the "cleaning up of the Government". We'll see if and how that cleaning will happen and who will drop out of Spajić's "combination". And maybe we won't! Andrija Madić's performance with Dodik's visit would certainly have to be interpreted as a violation of the agreement of the parliamentary majority, which gave Spajić the green light to form the government, and Milan Knežević (DNP) and Andrija Mandić (NSD), the former skeleton of the Democratic Front (DF), a promise for entering the government during its reconstruction by the end of this year. The condition was consistent persistence on the pro-European path. It is known, however, that Dodik does not see the EU on his path. In any case, it will make the reconstruction of the government more difficult, prolong it, and maybe even make it impossible.

photo: Saša Matić / Government of Montenegro / Tanjug

BROOM AND AGREEMENTS

The basic question is how much the split in the Europe Movement will weaken the parliamentary majority that supported the 44th government. Are all PES MPs really with the Prime Minister and to what extent do other political entities see Spajić as a reliable partner? The first comment from the former ruling DPS was that Milatović finished his work in PES when he "lobbied for the Democratic Front to come into power", indirectly expressing sympathy for Spajić and, of course, offering the possibility of another parliamentary majority . Alekse Bečić's Democrats, who participate significantly in the current government, reacted with restraint to the divisions in the most important political group, asserting that they will consistently adhere to the signed agreement and that their views will not be influenced by events that are solely an internal matter of their coalition partners. Consistent, but not politically convincing enough.

Finally, it could happen that in the announced reconstruction there will be impossible calculations in which the "puff puff prime minister" would open the door to the Bosniak party and the "Serbian world", and together with the "political backbone" Milović, sweep away the Democrats as well. Political manipulators prefer to use a model that can best be translated as - "let your voice out, there will always be someone who will run after it". Let's wait for the Prime Minister to speak. For now, also through the X network, he has promised nine sections of highways and expressways, four sections of railways, two airports and the port of Bar.