Montenegro has broken. By the decision of the majority of citizens, Montenegrin statehood was restored after 88 years, with messages to Serbia that it remains a brotherly state and closest neighbor.
Specially za "Time" iz Podgorica
At the referendum on statehood on Sunday, May 21, 55,5 percent, or 230.711 citizens voted for the independence option of Montenegro, while 44,5 percent, or 184.954 citizens, supported the union. The turnout was expectedly high - 86,49 percent or 419.236 citizens.
The threshold of 55 percent, which was imposed by the European Union, was slightly exceeded, but a clear majority was established, which does not cast doubt on the dominant decision in Montenegro. Probably because of the peaceful and tolerant campaign that both blocs led before the referendum and which showed that Montenegrin society is gaining the outlines of full political maturity, May 21 was not experienced as a doomsday after which nothing will be the same. Along with smaller incidents, already on Monday, May 22, the "rivals" congratulated each other on the country. Although the leaders of the unionist bloc at that time still refused to recognize the results, demanding a new count, the sovereignists and unionists, who were also in the same family, sat together in the gardens of Podgorica cafes, without visible tensions.
"E VIVA MONTENEGRO": The danger of emotions exploding and a close encounter between the activists of the two blocs was avoided on Sunday evening, after, based on the first preliminary results, at 22 p.m., just an hour after the polls closed, fireworks were set off from the Government building where the celebration of the sovereignist had begun. The preliminary result, according to which the sovereignists had 56,3 percent, was announced by the monitoring organizations - the Center for Monitoring (CEMI) and CeSID, from the headquarters of the unionists they called it flat, then announced that according to their results they were leading, only to have the police prevent a fight a few minutes later. members of two camps on the streets in the center of Podgorica.
The leaders of the unionists, disputing the result of the CEMI, in a dramatic tone asked the sovereignists to withdraw their supporters from the streets, at the same time calling on their own to exercise restraint in order to avoid incidents.
This was followed by "shuttle diplomacy" by Solana's envoy, Miroslav Lajฤak, who met with both Bulatoviฤ and the sovereignist leader, Prime Minister ฤukanoviฤ, and the argument that the process should not be spoiled in the end was an added impulse for both sides to calm the passions of their supporters, so it is mostly on the streets everything ended without serious incidents.
Two hours later, CESID representative Dr. Zoran Luฤiฤ, based on the complete sample, corrected the earlier estimate to 55,3 percent for independent Montenegro, noting that it is practically impossible for this percentage to fall below 55 percent. Soon after, CEMI came out with a result of 55,5 percent for independence based on almost all the votes counted. The leaders of the unionists appeared before the journalists again, and Predrag Bulatoviฤ said that, based on 79 percent of the votes counted, the sovereignists have 54 percent, and the unionists 46 percent.
After his words that we should still wait for the report of the Republican Referendum Commission, around one hour after midnight, a few hundred unionist supporters, gathered at the headquarters in the ฤoลกak pizzeria in the center of Podgorica and in front of the SNP headquarters on the banks of the Moraฤa, dispersed. On the streets of Podgorica, in front of and in the Government building, the celebration of the supporters of the restoration of the independence of Montenegro began.
"E viva, e viva, e viva Montenegro", broke out around 1.40:XNUMX a.m. in the Government building when the leader of the sovereignist bloc, Milo ฤukanoviฤ, declared a definitive victory.
Several thousand sovereignists sang the Montenegrin national anthem at the top of their voices, chanting continuously: "We have a state, we have a state...", "Milo, Milo!"
The first tears of joy, along with hugs and mutual congratulations, flowed at 21.50:XNUMX p.m., when the first information about the victory arrived at the headquarters of the sovereignist bloc.
Then, by 23.30:55 p.m., everything went quiet, various percentages were mentioned, while controversial information circulated about whether there was 45 percent certainty. A new wave of euphoria was caused by DPS spokesman Predrag Sekuliฤ, who, half an hour before midnight, together with his SDP colleague Branislav Raduloviฤ, appeared in front of hundreds of journalists in the congress hall for the first time and declared victory. As he did not provide any data, the wait continued for another hour, until suddenly at 55,5 minutes after midnight it was announced - XNUMX percent!
Sovereignist leaders Milo ฤukanoviฤ, Ranko Krivokapiฤ, Filip Vujanoviฤ, Svetozar Maroviฤ, Miodrag ลฝivkoviฤ, Branko Lukovac and others were welcomed a little later with Montenegrin folk songs. With the presence of Prince Nikola Petroviฤ, who appeared around midnight, they sang to King Nikola... Some of the hits were "...and goodbye..." and "Oh Serbia, we wish you all the best at parting"!
"STO A LOT INDEPENDENTLY": The bursts and detonations from the outskirts of the city at around 22 p.m. for hundreds of people from Cetinje gathered in the bars in the center were the signal that the celebration could begin. The news began to spread with kisses and hugs, bursts from Kalashnikovs rang out in the city center as well. "No-for-you-sna, no-for-you-sna..." was the marching band on the Cetinje corso. As the flags went up, the phones went down. Mobile phone connections "went down", like on New Year's Eve.
Unlike Podgorica, in Cetinje there was no worry as to whether the preliminary results would turn out to be correct. Montenegro was "100 percent independent" in Cetinje, as in the old slogan of the Liberal Alliance, whose leader Slavko Peroviฤ was most cheered on the night between May 21 and 22.
The celebration of the sovereignists in Nikลกiฤ started on Sunday morning. The gathering centers were the cafes on the main street and the town square, which are mostly held by supporters of independence. Montenegrin folk songs, red flags with a yellow-gold coat of arms in the middle, crusader banners, columns of decorated cars with sirens on... The central celebration was organized on Monday evening in the capital, in front of a full King Nikola Square, with a roasted ox.
The referendum result, as reported from Cetinje, restored the honor of the last king Nikola and the Petroviฤ dynasty, dethroned by the decisions of the so-called Podgorica Assembly in 1918, as well as to all citizens of Montenegro.
"We once again restored the Montenegrin state in such a way that no one can ever question it again," were the words of Prime Minister ฤukanoviฤ.
He called on the leaders of the unionist bloc from Cetinje to "not dispute what cannot be disputed and not to leave a shadow on the democratic and European image of Montenegro." A few hours before that, Predrag Bulatoviฤ, Predrag Popoviฤ, Andrija Mandiฤ and Ranko Kadiฤ requested a check of the preliminary results and a re-counting of the ballots at all polling stations, a check of newly registered voters who reside abroad, a comparison of the central voter list with excerpts from the list who was at the polling stations, comparing the signatures on the voting material with the signatures on their ID cards...
However, already on Tuesday morning, everything was clear. The President of the Republican Referendum Commission, Frantiลกek Lipka, announced the final results, according to which the option of restoring state independence has about 45.000 more votes. On the same day around noon, the European Union announced its acceptance of the results of the referendum, which finally put an end to any doubts that things could change.
O INDEPENDENCE SERBIA: However, in the block for a joint state, they do not want to surrender so easily.
On Tuesday, the President of the People's Party, Predrag Popoviฤ, again requested that "at the polling stations where a huge turnout has been observed in the last hour and a half, the signatures on the voting materials should be compared with the signatures from the extracts of identity cards".
"Depending on how this request is resolved, we ultimately want the result of the referendum to be established as indisputable so that we know how to behave in that situation." Should we accept the result or act differently? We suspect a brutal theft and we want to establish the indisputability of the referendum result", said Popoviฤ, according to whose information "a number of people who voted came from Kosovo and Albania".
The unionists tried to prevent the announcement of the results by not submitting the minutes of voting at 37 polling stations in Podgorica, with around 19.000 votes, which they did, after the intervention of the president of the RRK, Franitisek Lipka, before the legal deadline expired. All minutes were signed by all members of the voting committees, of which there are three from each block, and no one objected to the voting at those 37 polling stations.
"In sports terms, the Law established the rules of the game, which were respected from beginning to end, and all decisions were made by consensus of both blocs." The referendum took place in a peaceful, democratic and legitimate manner. The Republic of Croatia has not received a single serious complaint, which international observers have also noted," noted Lipka, Slovak writer and acquaintance of Miroslav Lajฤak, whom the EU sent as President of the Republic of Croatia due to the mutual distrust of the opposing camps in Montenegro.
From the sovereignist headquarters, even though the euphoria was at its peak at the time, in the night between Sunday and Monday they managed to convince their supporters to celebrate in moderation, so as not to provoke the activists of the other bloc. That's why car processions are forbidden to go around the suburbs of Podgorica, and festivities in Podgorica are limited to the main boulevard. On ฤukanoviฤ's face, one could not see the victorious arrogance.
"Our independence is in the interest of our good and close European future, it is not motivated by harming anyone." In this way, I want to congratulate the state of Serbia on its independence, to express my belief that the state of Serbia will rapidly conquer the next stages on the path of its European integration and that it will contribute to general regional stability and the rapid and high-quality European and Euro-Atlantic integration of the entire Western Balkans," said the Prime Minister. in the first address, calling on all citizens to "celebrate the great victory with dignity" and to do so "so as not to leave room for anyone to feel depressed or lost, because in the independent state of Montenegro there will be no losers".
"We want the state of Montenegro to be a spacious and comfortable home for each of its citizens and to be a good and open friend to everyone in our environment," were ฤukanoviฤ's words.
A day later, at the first press conference, he announced that he would like "Serbia to be among the first to recognize the independence of Montenegro."
"That would be a gesture of Serbia's democratic maturity and its readiness to build the best possible relations with Montenegro and contribute to regional stability." It is clear the majority will of the citizens and I do not see that anyone, including the competition, could object to this result. This is a great victory for Montenegro, for democracy, the rule of law and European principles in Montenegro," ฤukanoviฤ said.
Noting that it is historically just that Serbia also restored its independence, he assessed that the restoration of the independence of the two old Balkan states is a condition for a faster path to the EU and the healing of mutual relations.
The dynamics of the talks with Serbia on the dissolution of SCG, he said, will depend on the readiness of the Serbian state authorities.
"Those talks can be short and effective and result in bilateral agreements in many areas," the prime minister emphasized, alluding to agreements in the field of education, treatment... When it comes to forecasts, the Podgorica agencies Damar and CEDEM have shown that they are serious about their work.
About a month and a half ago, CEDEM announced that the turnout would be 87 percent and that the sovereignists would win 56,3 percent, while the closest to the exact result was Damar who predicted 55,9 percent for the sovereignists.
Unlike them, some foreign and Serbian agencies made big mistakes, with the Mark Plan from Pancevo going the furthest in predicting the defeat of the sovereignist forces.
According to public opinion surveys by the Maarten Bord agency, the result of the referendum should have been in the "gray zone". According to the Marten board, 52,35 percent of voters should have decided for independence.
The most optimistic forecast for the sovereignist camp was given about two and a half months ago by the American agency Terence Group, which predicted that 62 percent would vote for independence.
The politicians' assessments at the beginning of the campaign about the outcome of the referendum turned out to be very realistic, unlike those they announced at the end of the campaign, which can be interpreted as an attempt to homogenize their supporters and bring panic to the opposing camp.
Unionist bloc leader Predrag Bulatoviฤ announced at the official start of the Unionist bloc's media campaign that they have more than 180.000 safe voters, which turned out to be true in the end. In the end, he agreed with the leaders of smaller parties who claimed that they would have 200.000.
On the first claims of the unionist camp that they have 180.000 voters, DPS responded with a sovereignist 57 percent, so that in the end the advantage increased to more than 60 percent.
The last forecast was given by Svetozar Maroviฤ when, in a TV duel, he asked Predrag Popoviฤ and Andrija Mandiฤ to remind him that he predicted that the result would be between 58 and 60 percent. Leaders of NS and SNS, the desire to spite Maroviฤ has probably passed.
At the first press conference after the announcement of the referendum results, ฤukanoviฤ reiterated that the citizens of Serbia do not need to worry about their property in Montenegro because that right is guaranteed to them, saying that they will still be able to enter Montenegro with an identity card, even if Serbia request passports for citizens of Montenegro.
The idea of โโan alliance of independent states, as he said, is no longer on the table because "today we have a completely new reality", although relations with Serbia can be "much more than an ordinary neighborhood".
"I do not expect a radicalization of Serbia's attitude towards Montenegrin citizens." It is my belief that Serbia will truly want to continue continuity in the Council of Europe, the OSCE, that it will want to be a member of the UN very quickly, and that it will continue to work with us on the European road. All this implies that they will respect the standards and that people with Montenegrin citizenship will continue to enjoy full civil rights in Serbia," said ฤukanoviฤ.
He recalled his warnings that Serbia's projections that the citizens of Montenegro living on its territory will become foreigners are extremely ill-intentioned.
"Unfortunately, that's what people who thought they were representing Serbian interests in Montenegro said, most often in the referendum campaign. This is a big misconception", assessed the Montenegrin Prime Minister.
Although there is no doubt that the sovereigntists will dominate even after the regular parliamentary elections in September, it is difficult to predict the distribution of forces after those elections because the big question is whether all the sovereigntist parties will appear in a coalition.
The DPS-SDP axis, which has been in power since 1997, could remain until those elections, which is difficult to expect for Miodrag ลฝivkoviฤ's Liberal Party, Krsto Paviฤeviฤ's Civic Party, the newly formed Bosniak Party... Those smaller parties will certainly go to the DPS electorate. and promoting a better and more prosperous Montenegro and a fiercer fight against corruption, but the question arises whether, say, LP and GP will be able to pass the census if perform independently.
On the other hand, the truce between the SNP and the pro-Serbian parties, agreed upon due to the referendum, will hardly last, which again means that NS and DSS, if they go to the elections alone, will fight for the census. According to all polls, Mandiฤ's SNS has around six percent, with the fact that it could be left without a leader since Andrija Mandiฤ announced his resignation due to the failure of the referendum.
Bulatoviฤ also announced his resignation before the referendum if the opposition does not exceed 45 percent, but it would not be a surprise if his party, as after the electoral defeat in 2002, refused to accept it. Nebojลกa Medojeviฤ's Group for Change appears as Bulatoviฤ's potential ally in the next elections.
It would not be a surprise if the SNP is the new partner of the DPS in the Government after the September elections, which was somehow hinted at by ฤukanoviฤ on Tuesday, speaking about the need to overcome divisions in Montenegro.
Mentioning the forms of rapprochement with the opposition, he said that they "cooperate in the parliament and will cooperate more intensively in the parliament."
"We will see a new arrangement of political forces after the elections in September." We will see if there is room for more intensive cooperation through some other institutions where we have not cooperated so far. It would probably be premature to talk about it now," said the Prime Minister.
The first analyzes show that the quota of 55 percent was exceeded thanks to the organized arrival of Montenegrin emigrants from the EU and the USA, whose representatives months ago, together with the ruling structures, prepared the ground for every emigrant, who did not register their residence in Montenegro, to be in their homeland on May 21 . From last Friday to Sunday, up to 40 planes landed at the Podgorica airport a day.
According to unofficial information, over 10.000 emigrants circled "yes", while unionists could count on a maximum of 2000, but that's why more than 5000 voters from Serbia arrived - students and citizens of Serbia who reside in Montenegro.
The winner was decided in Cetinje, Bara, Ulcinj, Roลพaje and Plav, where the sovereignists had a huge advantage, but also in Berane, where the difference in favor of the common state was about 1000 votes, although at the beginning there were predictions that the sovereignists would be in the center of Vasojeviฤ in the minus by more than 5000 votes.
The sovereignists achieved a narrow victory in Podgorica and Nikลกiฤ, in Bijelo Polje they were overwhelming, while in Danilovgrad, Kotor and Tivat they had an advantage ranging from 800 to 1800 votes.
As expected, the unionists dominated in Pljevlja, Herceg Novi, Andrijevica, Kolaลกin, Mojkovac, Pluลพine, ลฝabljak and ล avnik.
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