photo: vladimir milovanovićSending a letter requesting debt write-off harms Air Serbia because other creditors will start asking for money when they see that the company is insolvent. Such a letter can cause panic that will make an already difficult situation even more difficult
"WEATHER": The latest news is that Air Serbia has asked for 82 percent of its debt from Etihad, which Etihad refused. What will happen to that debt now??
PREDRAG VUJOVIĆ: If the state decides to save the company at any cost, then it will have to pay. Now the question arises - what should he pay? Is it only 51 percent of that debt, because he owns 51 percent of Air Serbia, or the entire debt? Since we do not know what the loan agreement is, who is the guarantor of that loan, what are the terms of payment, delays, we can only guess now. But, since Etihad did not appear until now when it was supposed to compensate the difference between income and expenses in the company, but that difference came from the budget of Serbia, I strongly doubt that they will now accept that, for example, the Serbian side pays only 62 million of a total of 120 million dollars, with the rest being borne by Etihad. And according to the ownership structure, that's how it should be.
Forwards, they took that money from Etihad.
There is now a big game. Etihad is a multinational company and now the story begins that the part of the company that gave the loan has almost nothing to do with aviation, and that Etihad aviation, when it needs to buy an airplane, takes a loan from them. That is possible, but there is another part to the story. First, that loan payment didn't come suddenly. Since 2015, when the first loan was taken that should be returned now in September, someone had to take care and say - both three years ago and two years ago - people, we have to give 56,5 million in September 2020. That didn't happen. From the very beginning, nothing was done on the subject of debt repayment. I won't insinuate, but it looks a lot like that - I took a loan, and I knew from the start that I wouldn't be able to pay it back.
One could say that if there was no corona, we would return for sure...
Corona is not at all the cause of Air Serbia not being able to repay the debt and that cannot be an argument. The moment someone took out a loan five years ago, he should have set aside money to repay the loan. That's about 25 million dollars annually, because the second loan is also due only 10 months after the first. If you didn't set aside 2016 or 2017 until last year, then it has nothing to do with corona. Does anyone think that Air Serbia would have made a profit of 56 million dollars this year for the first nine months of 2020 if there was no corona? It wouldn't, you can see that if you look at the business report from last year. They reported a net profit of 9,5 million euros, with a state subsidy of more than 20 million euros.
I still maintain that the company was structurally misplaced from day one, since 2013. It is even more important that the Serbian side - the Government of Serbia - as the majority owner, ceded the right to manage the company to Etihad. Whoever runs the company is obliged to ensure such operations that he can repay the loan. Or to say: "I'm incapable" and go away. And he cannot now turn to the Government of Serbia and say - if you want a national company, pay 120 million dollars.
Didn't the European Commission once determine who manages Air Serbia and determined that it is the Government of Serbia, not Etihad?
The European Commission requested that there be more members of the Serbian side than Etihad in the Management Board. But about the management of the company, about all the key places - Etihad decided, they brought people and they didn't ask anyone and they didn't answer to anyone. Remember when (former CEO of Air Serbia) Dane Kondic literally ran away in December 2017 - after four years in the position of CEO, no one analyzed what that man did, whether it was good or not.
If I, as the majority owner, gave you the company to manage, then I can expect from you, if nothing else, that the company has no debt after five years. And not that after five or seven years I will face a dubious case, and the same one who gave me a loan and who manages the company is not responsible for anything.
When it comes to that credit relationship, the very way in which the largest part of the debt was requested to be written off, without explanation, is so naive that I am speechless. Before sending that letter, it was necessary to have serious discussions at a high level, and it is not the current director of the company Naismith - who, by the way, also ran Alitalia on behalf of Etihad, and thus led to bankruptcy - but someone from the Government of Serbia, someone who participated, e.g. Siniša Mali. And not like this, I send a letter and say that I have no money. Sending such a letter and such a response harms the airline because other creditors, everyone who has claims against Air Serbia - airports, suppliers of fuel, spare parts... - will now demand money when they see that they are insolvent. I am afraid that such a letter can cause panic, which will make the difficult situation of the company even more difficult.
Vučić said in April that everyone's job and wages at Air Serbia are guaranteed, as well as that Serbia will invest much more in Air Serbia because now the EU allows state aid and recapitalization.
It has nothing to do with reality. The EU has not changed its policy. It allows for state intervention in the form of loans, with the return of that money. Unilateral giving of money as a grant does not exist anywhere and the EU has not changed anything there. Furthermore, regarding wages and employment, a politician should not talk about it, but the director of the company should come out and say that this is how he will run the company, which will sustain wages and everything else, without having any income, so let him say where he will come from to cover it.
The assumption is that the state will cover.
It's not just about those loans. If what Zorana Mihajlović said in May is true, that Air Serbia has 30 million euros in losses, and the assumption is that it will have 50 million by the end of the year, if the state gives that 120 million dollars, it will have to give another 50 million. would keep the company going until January 1, 2021. And then what will it do after that?
Why is there nothing else between the overcome regime and the changes? What does the regime mean when it says it is defending Serbia? Why is the Student Movement indomitable? Who has the knowledge and real experience, and who leads without a day of work experience outside of politics? And why students win
After almost two years of protests, hundreds of kilometers walked, arrests, persecution and unprecedented social mobilization, Serbia is holding elections that could mark the end of a political era. Sociologist Marija Babović tells "Vreme" that the hope for change has not been so great since October 5, 2000, but she also warns of the danger that, if changes are not made, the country will face an even tougher authoritarian regime.
Their only weapon now is the media they control: like, we don't have an agenda, which is not true; as, we will betray the national interest, which is not true. One of their arguments is that we are afraid to go to the debate with Vučić. They do not understand that it is their punishment. This is a punishment for Aleksandar Vučić, who for 14 years conducted exclusively a monologue. For fourteen years he did not allow anyone any kind of dialogue, and now he would like to be rewarded or pardoned with the opportunity to talk to us. Well, he won't be able to. What he sowed is now reaping
These elections are not elections about Serbia's membership in the European Union, Kosovo and Metohija, gay marriage, tax policy or any other single political issue. Although parties on the fringes of political power try to impose these themes, at the heart of the upcoming political election is a much simpler dilemma: change or preserve the existing order. For more than a year now, surveys have shown that this is the primary dilemma on the ballot
In the RS, 19.800 people registered for the elections in Serbia, who will be able to vote at 28 polling stations. It remains unknown how many of them will cross the Drina on October 25 and vote in Serbia. In any case, I do not believe that the voters from Republika Srpska are the ones who will decide the winner of the elections in Serbia. Realistically, the voters from Republika Srpska can influence a little, but it seems that they are symbolically very important to both Vučić and the opposition.
There is, literally, no difference between the one who claims it is day in the middle of the night, or the one who claims to be a giraffe, from the claims we read on billboards: that Vučić is working to unify Serbs and that Serbia is doing better and better day by day.
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The ring that tightens around Ćaciland Student list is getting narrower. Because there are more and more spoiled people who see the false prophet for what he is: a street obscener who is fighting Serbia
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