Many people around the world will remember last summer for record heat, forest fires and floods, which took lives, destroyed income sources and caused irreparable damage to the environment. Fires raged in Turkey and Greece, and flash floods claimed nearly 200 lives in Germany, affecting other European countries as well. In Serbia, this was the fifth warmest summer in the last 70 years.
If we do not bring climate change under control, these weather conditions will become more and more frequent and extreme. Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), which occur primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels, trap heat in the atmosphere, so the planet is already 1,2°C warmer than in the 19th century, at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
WHY THE GLASGOW CONFERENCE IS A TURNING POINT FOR THE FUTURE
The latest UN report on climate change says that life as we know it and all the economic activities it entails will not be possible if the average global temperature before the end of the century rises by 2°C compared to the end of the 19th century. The report estimates that we are getting dangerously close to that scenario, because if the current trends in GHG emissions continue, the increase in average temperature will reach or exceed 20°C already in the next 1,5 years. On the bright side, the report says that with zero global net GHG emissions by 2050, it is very likely that we will be able to hold global warming below 2100°C by 2. To achieve net zero emissions, we need to reduce GHG emissions to equal the amount of CO2 that can be absorbed from the atmosphere, for example through forests.
In order to encourage a new global agreement on urgent climate action, leaders and representatives of almost 200 countries, including Serbia, will meet next week in Glasgow at the 26th UN Conference on Climate Change - COP26. The conference will gather representatives of companies, development and financial institutions, climate change experts and civil society activists. It will be the most important meeting on climate change since the landmark climate talks in Paris in 2015. The three most important expectations from the conference in Glasgow are that it will provide an additional commitment by countries to stop the increase in global temperature well below 2°C, in accordance with the Paris Agreement, with concrete plans on how to achieve this; speed up the implementation of adaptation measures to the already changed climate conditions; and mobilize enough money to achieve the first two goals.
RESTRAINING TEMPERATURE RISE ON EARTH
At the conference on climate change in Paris in 2015, all present countries, including Serbia, committed to reducing GHG emissions, in order to keep global temperature growth below 1,5°C. The promises made in Paris have not been fulfilled, as global CO2 emissions have continued to rise. The UN report on climate change, backed by 234 scientists from 66 countries, warned of unprecedented changes in the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets and land. Some of these changes, such as the constant rise in sea levels, cannot already be reversed in the coming centuries, or even in 1000 years.
COP 26 will first have to deal with what was agreed in 2015 and not achieved, as well as how to increase ambitions to stop climate change in order to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid climate disasters. Serbia is expected to announce that it will reduce GHG emissions by 2030 percent by 33,3, which is significantly more than the previous goal of 9,8 percent. Some of the biggest broadcasters are making the biggest move
GHG – USA, China and EU. The US rejoined the Paris Agreement and set a new goal to reduce GHG emissions by 2030 percent by 52. The EU has promised to reduce emissions by 55 percent by the same year, while China has announced that it will halve its emissions and become carbon neutral by 2060.
Achieving zero GHG emissions globally is not easy and requires major changes. Countries will have to stop relying on carbon for the growth of their economies, through increasing energy efficiency and the share of renewable energy sources (solar, wind energy and biomass, hydro and geothermal energy). Afforestation, maximizing the use of resources through a circular economy and better waste management can also accelerate the green transformation, as can the use of cleaner technologies in industry and the transition to electric vehicles.
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
The climate is already changing and will continue to change even as we reduce emissions. Between 1999 and 2018, almost half a million lives and close to 3,5 trillion dollars were lost worldwide due to the impact of climate factors. At the beginning of this year, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for 50 percent of the financial resources to combat climate change to be directed to improving resilience and adapting to the effects of ever-increasing temperatures.
Climate change increases the risk of extremely hot and dry weather, longer and more intense droughts that threaten agriculture and favor the outbreak of fires. Warmer weather also means more vapor in the atmosphere, which leads to more rainfall and flooding. The most vulnerable are poor countries, because they do not have enough money to adapt. That's why COP26 will call on countries to work together to help those most affected by climate change to protect and restore ecosystems, build defenses against extreme weather, establish early warning systems, and make infrastructure and agriculture more resilient. One of the reasons for holding the conference live, despite the pandemic, is to hear the voice of less developed countries, so that they can get the necessary support.
It is also important for Serbia to adapt, because it is located in a region that is warming 1°C faster than the global average. Without adaptation measures, economic losses due to extreme weather conditions could reach 2030 billion dollars by 13. If nothing is done, Serbia will not be able to maintain agricultural production as it is now, and economic growth in the fields of forestry, energy, transport and infrastructure will also slow down. With the support of the Green Climate Fund, UNDP is assisting the Government of Serbia in the development of the first National Climate Change Adaptation Plan, with concrete measures for the greatest climate risks in key sectors of the economy. For example, measures to protect yields in agriculture, which accounts for 7,5 percent of Serbia's GDP, include increased irrigation, use of drought-resistant seeds, construction of greenhouses, and more regular use of hail nets and systems.
HOW TO PROVIDE MONEY?
In 2009, developed countries promised that by 2020 they would collect 100 billion dollars every year to help less developed countries, including Serbia, in order to reduce the risk of climate change and adapt to it. According to OECD data, the most money was allocated in 2019 – 79,6 billion dollars. Ahead of COP26 in Glasgow, the UK and the US have announced they are doubling aid to developing countries for climate action. Great Britain will allocate $16 billion over the next 5 years, and the US will allocate $11,4 billion by 2024. At the same time, the EU announced that it will allocate another $2027 billion by 5 to support low-income countries that are particularly threatened by climate change.
COP 26 will call on donors to step up support and demonstrate that the $100 billion per year target can be met and exceeded. It will also call on companies to make more significant investments in funding the technologies and innovations needed to get the world to net zero emissions by the middle of the 21st century. However, countries wishing to receive this type of support must regularly plan, monitor and report on their efforts to reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate change. Also, international financial institutions and bilateral donors have agreed to include strict climate criteria as a precondition for obtaining loans and official development assistance.
As the recipient of these funds, Serbia will have to show its willingness to reorient itself to an economy that relies less on fossil fuels. Reducing dependence on this type of fuel will bring other positive effects for the Serbian economy, as it will become more competitive on foreign markets. This particularly applies to the EU as Serbia's most important export market, as well as to more economically developed countries where goods and services with a reduced carbon and ecological footprint are already favored. This is especially important ahead of the introduction of new carbon duties and taxes on the import of strategic goods produced outside the EU, which is expected in 2023.
WE HAVE NO TIME TO WASTE
Due to the current global shortage and increase in gas prices, some are questioning whether abandoning fossil fuels as an energy source is too risky. Instead, this situation should make us turn even faster to renewable energy sources (RES). Not only will supplies of gas, oil and coal only last for about 50 or 100 years, but the prices of energy obtained from RES, such as solar and wind energy, have fallen by 10 percent and 60 percent in the past 90 years.
Increasing the share of RES in the energy mix, as well as greater energy efficiency, is the only way to energy security. It is also the way to build a more resilient and fair economy, preserve the environment and ensure a healthier future for humanity. Whether the conference in Glasgow will succeed in providing us with such a future will be measured not only by the promises, but also by the concrete steps that will be taken to realize these promises as soon as possible.
The author is a permanent representative of UNDP in Serbia
