Deutsche Vele: Serbia between repression, chaos and falling support

Nine months from falling canopy in Novi Sad the political crisis in Serbia is far from resolved. Protests continue., and it's somewhat of a surprise considering the high temperatures and annual holidays, but the pressure is still there.

During the summer period, the actions of the police intensified, the repression increased, but faced with the number of protests and their dispersion, the authorities made a break in this regard as well, reports Deutsche says.

Judging by the latest events, the police have been replaced by various private security forces, and it seems that communal police are also involved in the arrests.

Playlist or awakened prosecutor's office?

The beginning of August, however, brought a political bomb in the form of the arrest of high-ranking officials of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) for corruption and embezzlement of 115 million dollars for the construction of the Novi Sad-Kelebija high-speed railway.

The public remained rather confused, and that action is seen either as a play directed by Aleksandar Vučić, or as a genuine step by the prosecution in cooperation with the European Union.

"Both theories show how the state of Serbia is not based on formalized institutions," points out Dejan Bursać, research associate at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory.

"If you analyze both of those solutions, you can see that they sound equally crazy. In that context, I think both scenarios are risky for SNS and Aleksandar Vučić, because both show that he doesn't really have control over the state. And that's something his image is based on," he says.

Panic – who's next?

Political scientist Duško Radosavljević assesses that he is more inclined to the interpretation according to which the prosecution finally acts independently, which "is also shown by the hysterical reactions to the arrest and detention of the suspects".

"Panic has set in, especially since this is about the first echelon for arrest. And now there is already mention of a more serious amount of money in that case, so far these were relatively modest amounts of money. If we go further into the analysis, the question is how many more people will be arrested, and the regime does not know who it could be. Let's say that it is possible and that the EU has given encouragement to start dealing with corruption," Radosavljević points out.

The shirt is closer than the coat.

In recent days, the crisis within the ruling coalition has worsened. Certain tensions between the SNS and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) have been going on for a long time, but now they have been joined by harsh rhetoric addressed to the Bosniak parties in Sandžak, after the violent break in the blockade of the State University of Novi Pazar (DUNP).

The authorities fiercely attacked the leaders of the local parties for disloyalty, which also led to the Sandžak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) filing a criminal complaint against Parliament Speaker Ana Brnabić "for inciting national, racial and religious hatred and intolerance."

This is not a surprise after nine months of crisis, emphasizes Dejan Bursać. "If we had a functioning party system, that was the natural state of affairs, internal conflicts and factions would have arisen very quickly," he says.

"If you have a government that no longer controls the country, it is expected that there will be dissatisfaction. But here, the parties function as some informal centers of power, and that is why the process is going slower," Bursać believes.

The progressives sent "road robbers" to Novi Pazar, as a sensitive environment, to empty the university, assesses Duško Radosavljević. "Now an explosive atmosphere has been created there. And in that atmosphere, an experienced politician like Rasim Ljajić, or someone else, realizes that his shirt is closer than his coat."

Research as crisis management

All these events include public opinion polls in some way. Two recent ones - those of the Sprint Insight agency and New Serbian Political Thoughts - showed that a possible student list would have a comfortable advantage over the regime's list.

Although these are still theoretical choices, according to those tests, students have at least ten percent more support.

This was then "covered up" by the Ipsos survey, which did not even offer students as an option.

Dejan Bursać believes that the later researches were "crisis management on Sprint Insight research that gave an advantage to students".

"It is very strange that certain agencies did not respond for nine months, and then many presented their research within two weeks. I think that there is definitely a problem for SNS, because you have practically a state of emergency in the country, and it is expected that their support will decrease," says Bursać.

However, mathematics in Serbia is a little different. Duško Radosavljević points out that one cannot crown those around one million people who are connected to the regime.

"Up to a million more people, who otherwise voted for the government, are susceptible to influence. Buses for rallies are hard to fill, and I think their objective strength has dropped by at least a third. It is now just a coalition of life losers, transitional losers, and people from the criminogenic structure," states Radosavljević.

Agony or regime consolidation

Protests in Serbia do not stop, but due to increased repression and the continuation of lawlessness, rebel citizens often say that the regime has consolidated, and that some kind of initiative is on its side.

However, there are also many who think that Vučić is finished and that this is just the agony of a failed regime.

Duško Radosavljević does not see the consolidation of the regime and enumerates the problems the authorities are facing: "It is difficult to fill the budget, no one will sign permits for infrastructure works, it entered into what would be called a serious conflict with the Bosniaks, it did not go very well in Užice."

"It is difficult to say what consolidation is. Maybe a conversation with Macron? Or is it consolidation that turns seven public companies into seven limited liability companies in order to pay back some debts? Maybe he sees as consolidation that he has surrounded himself with an enormous amount of police that protects him from more direct encounters with rebellious citizens," concludes Radosavljević.

On the other hand, Dejan Bursać says that the claims that the regime is falling and consolidating are not mutually exclusive.

"It seems to me that Vučić is getting closer and closer to the election mode of the SNS. I think he has realized that this will have to end only with elections, one way or another. But there, an undemocratic process will await us in which all election manipulations will be turned to the maximum," concludes the DW interlocutor.

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