Photo: Cem Ozdel/Turkish Foreign Ministry via APForeign Ministers of Russia and Ukraine, Sergey Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba, met on Thursday morning in Antalya. There was no progress. They repeated the previous demands and expanded the list of accusations. Everything is happening at a dangerous speed where all three parties first react and then think about the consequences
They met to measure each other and that it cannot be blamed on them that they did not make an effort to end the armed conflicts in Ukraine. Neither Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, nor his Ukrainian colleague Dmytro Kuleba, nor mediator and host Turkey, nor the USA nor the EU had any expectations from the meeting in Antalya.
The result was as expected. The warring parties did not agree on anything. They held separate press conferences after the talks.
What did Kuleba say?
The head of Ukrainian diplomacy said that Ukraine "has not surrendered, is not surrendering and will not surrender" in the face of Russian aggression. He also said that due to the war situation at home, it was difficult for him to even sit across from Lavrov.
He demanded the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from gas storage facilities and nuclear power plants.
He said that Ukraine is counting on NATO membership in the foreseeable future, but that he understands that this will not happen in the near future, and that, despite everything that is happening, he is ready for a "measured" diplomatic solution to the crisis.
What did Lavrov say?
Lavrov dismissed accusations that Russian forces attacked a maternity hospital in the port city of Mariupol as "fake news". In his interpretation, there were no patients or medical staff there, but armed members of the ultra-radical, Ukrainian nationalist Azov regiment. He called the pictures of injured pregnant women that went around the world and claimed the opposite "manipulation of public opinion".
Lavrov accused the U.S. of secretly helping Ukraine build weapons of mass destruction and supplying it with deadly weapons.
He reiterated that in Ukraine it is not an "invasion" but a "special military operation" aimed at protecting ethnic Russians, "denazification" and "demilitarization". He emphasized once again that Kiev "must" undertake to remain neutral, and that NATO will not decide on Russia's security issues, but that Russia is ready to discuss Ukraine's security guarantees.
Lavrov said that after this crisis, his country will look at the world differently, that it will no longer have illusions about the West and that Russia will make sure that it never depends on the West again.
When asked if it will come to atomic war Lavrov replied that he neither believes in that nor wants to believe in such a possibility.
Acknowledgment of the completed act and the departure of the Russian troops
Before the meeting between the two ministers, the wartime government in Kiev had announced that there was nothing to negotiate until Russian troops withdrew from Ukrainian territory, while the Kremlin demanded that Ukraine recognize Crimea as part of Russia and the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as add an annex to the Constitution that will oblige it to be neutral.
So far, three rounds of negotiations have been held in Belarus at the level of lower negotiators, the only thing they achieved was a shaky agreement on the establishment of humanitarian corridors for evacuation of civilians from cities under Russian siege.
Dangerous acceleration
The fact that Lavrov and Kuleba were sitting at the same table separated by Turkish mediators can hardly be called a conversation. Because things have gone very far very quickly, events overtake each other every day - the Russian invasion of Russia began only two weeks ago.
All three sides - Russia, the West and Ukraine - began to react to the first ball. Consequences are thought about later.
Regardless of the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world will not be able to return to the pre-war situation for a long time. The West has started raising the bar to the point that sanctions against Russia will remain in force while Vladimir Putin is in power. Sanctions have already been raised to an unimaginable level, to the point of awareness self-harming and jeopardizing western markets.
The sanctions have already started stifling the Russian economy terribly, the consequences for the Western economy are also looming and are quite alarming, and will only come as he expresses.
Putin is pushed against the wall. He can only get out of this situation with a military victory in Ukraine, or at least a situation he can declare a victory. Rather, it seems that the rashness in Washington and the EU capitals is under the pressure of the biggest refugee crisis in Europe after the Second World War, the terrible pictures from Ukraine, the brave and emotional performances of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and the very fact that Russia launched its tanks on a European country, and not a conscious decision that the time had come for a final showdown with Putin and his followers, led to the fact that the President of Russia was left with almost no room for maneuver. First of all, the American and British allies repeat that it has come to this point.
The whole picture of this conflict is irresistibly reminiscent of two big trucks rushing at full speed towards a head-on collision, waiting for the other to brake or swerve, while believing in the strength of their own bodywork and the weakness of the other. The question to Lavrov about whether he rules out an atomic war was appropriate: this conflict between Russia and the West is increasingly reminiscent of the Cuban crisis, and Ukraine is increasingly acting as collateral damage, as a battlefield where two powers are balancing their forces.
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