Less than a week before parliamentary elections in Serbia, scheduled for October 25, one of the questions being asked is which of the two biggest favorites in the elections, "Student list - Students are winning" or "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia", managed to win over the undecided voters and how much they could determine the outcome of the election.
Executive Director of the Bureau of Social Research (BIRODI) Zoran Gavrilović for DW estimates that in Serbia at the moment there are between 11 and 16 percent of undecided voters, which is about 800.000 people.
Among them are those who do not know if they will vote at all and those who know they will vote, but do not yet know for whom.
Photo: FoNet/Branko VučkovićGathering of the Student List in Novi Pazar
The main goal of the campaigns – (non)turnout
However, Gavrilović does not believe that the main goal of the United Serbia campaign, that is, the Student List, is to win over undecided voters.
"The goal of the Student List (and their Door to Door campaign) is as high a turnout as possible, and the goal of the government, that is, the Serbian Progressive Party, is as low a turnout as possible - because Aleksandar Vučić won the elections with a turnout that did not exceed 58 percent."
He reminds that the lowest turnout was in 2012 in the presidential elections, when Tomislav Nikolić won in the second round, and about 46 percent of voters went to the polls.
"That's why the regime, through this neo-radical campaign, is trying to intimidate citizens and leave them at home on election day."
In order to create an environment in which the electorate of the Serbian Progressive Party, which is disciplined, will go to the elections, and the youth, i.e. the student population, will stay at home, United Serbia uses, Gavrilović specifies, "hate speech, labeling opponents and censorship in the media."
photo: amir hamzagić / tanjugFROM TENTS TO MEETINGS: Women in A. Vučić's campaign
Fewer and fewer undecided
Ana Stojiljković, a consultant for election campaigns who earned her doctorate on the subject of political communications and campaigns, points out that in the last few election cycles there were very few undecided voters in Serbia.
"After these two years of protests, conflicts and political tensions, it is to be expected that there are fewer of them. We live in a country where both friendships and families have been divided along political lines, and in such an atmosphere it is difficult to remain undecided, even if you do not have strong political beliefs."
That's why he says that "taking over other people's voters is difficult because of the pronounced polarization and that the actors focus on keeping their own and discouraging the voters of rival actors".
Photo: TimeSerbia or mafia: The student list submits signatures to the RIK
The last days of the campaign
Ana Stojiljković assesses that the Student List campaign was dominated by messages of "hope and optimism", while United Serbia mainly sent messages of "fear and stability". He adds that all this will be expanded in the last days of the campaign.
"The student list had a phase of presenting the list, which is still ongoing on certain channels, and assuring the voters that it has the best and most professional people who can repair, democratize and recover the country."
She also indicates that the messages of the Student List were "focused on the students themselves, who should ensure a sense of trust and awaken the enthusiasm of the citizens."
"There is also the 'informative' part of the campaign that reminds of the scandals and mistakes of the government and its corrupt, violent and unprofessional nature. On the other hand, the Serbian Progressive Party has a strong campaign to discredit the opponents (both students, universities, individuals from the list and institutions that should control the electoral process and the government in general).
The Serbian Progressive Party also has a positive campaign, says Stojiljković, "in which they claim that they are the only guarantor of the stability and progress of society, especially the economy."
"Everything is gaining intensity in the last days. SNS was more restrained compared to previous election cycles, because these are elections when an intense campaign that mobilizes was not in their interest. The campaign is now entering its final stage, so I expect that in the last days everything will be in expansion - advertising and performances and rallies. This will certainly affect mobilization to a certain extent."
He also says that on undecided voters, "if there are still any, awareness of the uncertainty of the election and the importance of each vote could have the greatest impact."
"Nevertheless, in this situation with further suppression of independent media, it is questionable how many such news will reach the voters in the last week, and that should be taken into account," emphasizes Stojiljković.
Photo: Tanjug / Amir HamzagićVučić in Kanjiža
Topics for undecided voters
Answering the question of which topics could most influence the final decision of undecided voters, Stojiljković replied that apart from the awareness of the uncertainty of the election, they could be influenced by "new affairs and revelations".
"Also, direct appeals and calls and visits to voters can bring a higher turnout, more than a specific issue."
Gavrilović explains that from public opinion research it can be concluded that the topics that are important to the voters of the Serbian Progressive Party are related to "salaries, roads, stability and some kind of neutral politics of Serbia".
On the other hand, adds the executive director of BIRODI, "for those who would vote for the Student List, the priority topics are the rule of law and the fight against corruption."
"What we see is that Vučić does not talk much about Kosovo, and even less about the fight against corruption. So, since the Serbian Eliot Ness, today he is someone who has not made a sound in the campaign on the topic of the fight against corruption".
Gavrilović assesses that Vučić is asking the students for an answer on the subject of Kosovo.
"Vučić, in fact, is listening to the students, asking for their answer. The students, for their part, said what their program for Kosovo is, but they do not go into its elaboration. However, the students have a space here, and that is to show that Aleksandar Vučić has done a lot when it comes to Kosovo's independence."
When it comes to the European Union, Gavrilović says that BIRODI's research shows that for Serbian citizens, the issue of EU membership is at a lower priority.
"Serbia has collapsed in the last 14 years; its statehood has been called into question. When I say statehood, I mean first of all the rule of law, the integrity of institutions and a free and democratic public. The welfare state, the rule of law and the fight against crime and corruption are most important to citizens."
Gavrilović believes that the campaign of the two favorites in the elections will not change much in the last week of the campaign, but that United Serbia will try to "discredit the other side" even more.
"I think that in the last week of the campaign, United Serbia will go for what would be called sliding starts in football, that there will be a lot of fouls, that they will try to discredit the other side. From 11 to 16 percent of undecided voters, some will decide in the last week whether they will vote."
Nevertheless, he emphasizes once again that, bearing in mind the referendum atmosphere in Serbia, the real battle is the battle for turnout.
"So, it is an indicator that will tell us who will win the elections", concludes Zoran Gavrilović.
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