The fate of the war, as well as the future geopolitical order of Eastern Europe, are being shaped behind closed doors in the agreements between Washington and Moscow - without the presence of Ukraine and essentially without the participation of the European Union
How is the war in Ukraine closer to the fourth anniversary, it is increasingly clear that key decisions are no longer in the hands of Kyiv.
The fate of the war, but also the future geopolitical order of Eastern Europe, are shaped behind closed doors in agreements Washington i Moscow - without the presence of Ukraine and essentially without participation Of the European Union.
After secret American-Russian contacts that have lasted for months, a new peace proposal for Ukraine emerges on the political scene, agreed as part of the administration's talks Donald Trump and the Kremlin.
According to information first published by leading Western media - Axios, Financial Times, Politico, Reuters - as well as Russian sources, the plan is largely based on proposals that Vladimir Putin made during the summit with Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska.
The latest peace plan is evaluated as essentially very similar to the demands that Russia presented at the negotiations held in Istanbul, at the very beginning of the invasion in the spring of 2022, thus confirming the continuity of the Russian strategy towards Ukraine.
From the leaked parts of the document, it appears that the US proposal includes 28 points and implies the biggest concessions to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
In part, it is a consequence of the fact that the situation on the front is not in Ukraine's favor: Russian forces are gradually but thoroughly suppressing the exhausted Ukrainian defense.
According to reports, the proposed plan includes territorial concessions to Ukraine — including the part of Donbass still under Kiev's control — as well as an indirect or de facto recognition of Russian control over Crimea and eastern areas under the control of Russian forces.
There is also the reduction of the Ukrainian army by half and Kiev's renunciation of key types of weapons.
In addition, the document foresees the recognition of the Russian language as the state language in Ukraine, as well as the granting of official status to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
Also, the document envisages a gradual reduction of the military aid of the United States, while some analyzes mention the possibility of long-term economic rapprochement between Moscow and The snow.
The Washington Post reports that US officials are putting more and more pressure on the president Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the proposal.
Kiev is in a sensitive position: the Ukrainian leader is currently affected by a major corruption scandal at the top of the government, while Russian military strikes have intensified.
According to analysts, this combination narrows his room for maneuver.
Also, the European Union, once again, watches from the sidelines as the continent's key issues are decided without it.
Brussels is now trying to make up for lost time by finding a unified position, but when the main decisions have already been agreed in principle in Washington and Moscow, the question is to what extent the EU can reshape the key points of the future agreement.
Referring to an unnamed American official, the Axios portal states that the American authorities believe that it is in Kiev's interest to give up the territories in the east, because it would still lose them if the military conflict continues, with an even greater risk for civilian casualties and infrastructure.
The arrival of the highest US military delegation since Trump took office should be viewed in the same context: Secretary of the Ground Forces Daniel Driscoll arrived in Kiev, accompanied by the head of the US military.
Officially, the goal of the visit of high-ranking American officials of the Pentagon to Kyiv is to "establish the facts" and discuss the possibilities of ending the war in Ukraine.
Although Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy, is one of the key authors of the new peace plan, the role of the official representative who will present the plan to the Ukrainian authorities is assumed by the aforementioned Secretary of the Army.
According to reports, Driscoll was briefed by Witkoff before embarking on this sensitive diplomatic mission.
Media sources also state that the meeting between Trump's envoy Witkoff and Volodymyr Zelensky in Ankara, planned a few days earlier, was suddenly canceled - when it became clear that Zelensky did not want to discuss the American-Russian peace plan.
Politiko states that the Ukrainian president arrived in Turkey with his own proposal, coordinated with certain European partners, and insisted on a format for future negotiations that includes European countries.
According to the available information, neither Kyiv nor Brussels were involved in the drafting of the peace plan.
European foreign ministers will discuss the details of the leaked document in Brussels, and Reuters states that European officials are of the principled position that any plan must have the support of Ukrainians and Europeans.
Still, the key question remains whether Ukraine, despite its heavy losses and unfavorable military situation, will be able to reject a plan backed by Washington and Moscow that most Ukrainians would likely find unacceptable.
In front of Kiev, as well as the West, a dilemma remains: is it better to agree to some kind of conditional truce than to an endless war.
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