European intelligence officers warn that in the coming months, Russia could test NATO with a limited incursion into the territory of a member of the Alliance. At the same time, Baltic officials see no signs of an imminent attack
Several European intelligence officials have warned that it would Rusija in the coming months, she could take a step to test her readiness of NATO, including a limited incursion into the territory of an Alliance member. At the same time, the intelligence services of the Baltic countries warn that there are no indications of an imminent attack, the British Guardian reported.
The warnings of a possible new escalation come at a time when the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, and drone and missile attacks are becoming more intense.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that intelligence assessments point to the possibility of Russia launching a drone or missile attack on NATO territory in the coming months to try to demonstrate that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is "more theoretical than practical".
French President Emmanuel Macron hailed Tusk's warnings as "founded and well-documented," and on Friday he gathered political party leaders and candidates for the 2027 presidential election in Paris. One of the topics of the meeting were assessments of the growing threat posed by Russia.
Director of the Czech Security and Information Service (BIS), Michal Koudelka, told the Guardian that a limited incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia cannot be ruled out as one of the possible scenarios.
"It is possible. It could involve a limited intrusion, false flag provocation or a massive influence campaign," Koudelka said.
According to his assessment, such a scenario could happen in "months, not years", but at the same time he emphasized that many are working to prevent such a development.
The Baltic countries, however, are much more cautious in their assessment of the immediate danger of Russian military action.
Normunds Mežviec, director of Latvia's state security service VDD, said there were no indications of an imminent attack.
"We see no indications of an immediate attack," Mezhviets said, adding that there are signs that Moscow is preparing the possibility of more decisive action in Europe, but that it is not clear whether these are concrete plans or part of a broader destabilization strategy.
"It is still an open question whether they have direct and concrete plans or whether this is all just part of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society," he said.
This is why certain Baltic countries are now in an unusual situation. Their officials have for years warned Western Europe of the Russian threat, while now urging caution in public messages about a possible imminent attack.
Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Saturday warned of "social media panic" over a possible attack.
"If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make it clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine," he wrote on IX.
Mezhviec assessed that it is good that Western Europe has begun to take the Russian threat more seriously.
According to his words, before 2022, the Baltic countries constantly warned their Western European partners about Russia, but their warnings were mostly not accepted. After the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the approach of Western countries changed.
Neither Koudelka nor Mezhviec wanted to reveal what specific intelligence data they based their assessments of Russian plans on.
They did not comment on whether CIA Director John Ratcliffe's surprise visit to Moscow last month was, among other things, connected to a warning to the Kremlin about the consequences of a possible attack on NATO.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov previously rejected allegations of a possible Russian attack on NATO.
"It has nothing to do with reality or the intentions of the Russian Federation," Peskov said.
Recalling intelligence warnings from the period before the Russian invasion of Ukraine further complicates the assessments. During 2021 and early 2022, American officials repeatedly warned that Russia was preparing for an invasion, while Moscow denied it.
European countries are stepping up preparations for a possible wider conflict with Russia, faced with the intensification of hybrid attacks, uncertainty about the US commitment to NATO defense and the experiences of the war in Ukraine, according to CNN analyst and former US national security official Brett McGurk.
McGurk says that in recent days, European allies have taken a number of measures that indicate increased concern about the possibility of the war spreading beyond Ukraine.
Belarus held military exercises this week near the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow land route between Poland and Lithuania that connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO. French President Emmanuel Macron called a confidential briefing for political leaders, after which new measures to protect critical infrastructure from Russian hybrid attacks were announced.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia could carry out drone or missile attacks on NATO countries and present them as incidents. Great Britain urged citizens to prepare for a possible war and secure food and water supplies, while German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz spoke of the need to prepare for "decisive moments" in the defense of Europe.
And Switzerland, which traditionally leads a policy of military neutrality, has adopted a new national security strategy that envisages greater resistance and the ability to defend against armed attack.
McGurk says European countries have been dealing with cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, drone strikes and other operations attributed to Russia for years. The problem for NATO is that such activities can be carried out without clearly crossing the threshold of conventional war.
As a possible scenario of a wider confrontation, the author singles out the Suwalki Corridor, about 100 kilometers long, which connects the Baltic countries with the rest of NATO by land. He estimates that a limited Russian military operation, with the possible participation of Belarus, could serve to test the readiness of the Alliance members to implement the provision on common defense.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said earlier that the Alliance regularly rehearses such scenarios and that an attack would provoke a strong response.
The war in Ukraine, according to McGurk, showed that states must have not only weapons to defend themselves, but also power grids resistant to attack, hospitals capable of treating large numbers of casualties, alternative communication systems and transport infrastructure, and institutions that can function under prolonged pressure.
This week, NATO released updated requirements for national resilience, which include government continuity, energy, food and water supplies, healthcare and communications during crisis and conflict. According to McGurk, the Alliance is studying Ukraine's experience in maintaining key services during Russian attacks.
The author also points to the American factor, stating that the US is simultaneously engaged militarily in Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, which is why its resources, including air defense, intelligence capabilities and ammunition, are limited.
McGurk believes that Russia, even while engaged in Ukraine, does not need to launch another large-scale invasion to test NATO. According to his analysis, Moscow could gradually increase the pressure through sabotage, cyberattacks, assassination attempts, drone or missile attacks and limited military operations.
He concludes that a period in which war was considered unlikely is ending in Europe and that states are again preparing for the possibility of armed conflict, partly due to the assessment that deterrence depends on how the Russian leadership assesses NATO's readiness and what the US response to the spread of the conflict would be.
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