A war of cities and drones

The Russians, after several months spent trying to take Donbass with variable results, since October 10 have pressed Ukraine with all their might - with missile systems and drone strikes on the power system, communications (both road and rail), internet connections, business centers with the intention of disrupting economic life, according to the state administration with a focus on destroying the buildings of intelligence and security structures, and the supply lines of forces on the front.

The motives are primarily political - to show that the Kremlin has the will to wage war, and the message was clearly sent to the world and the domestic public. In this context, actions are being transferred from the front, where the Russians have not been doing well since the end of August, to the rear and to the civilian systems, with the intention that before the winter the Ukrainians will reconsider the cost and purpose of waging war. The destruction of the electric power system can leave the population without heating, at the same time the economy is under attack, because it can cause a drastic drop in work in all sectors of production, banking, trade and transport.

NEW RADICALIZATION

Attacks on cities are not new either for war theory or practice. In the military profession, mass operations in the vital centers of the country were the first to be elaborated in detail by the Italian general Giulio Duet, during the First World War and in the post-war years. In practice, strategic air offensives were conducted consistently and over a long period of time by the Anglo-Americans during the Second World War. Recently, the so-called the war of the cities with the exchange of rocket attacks on the main urban centers was conducted by Iraqis and Iranians. The combination of the effect of aviation and missile systems and political propaganda pressure is the basis of the idea of ​​NATO's aggression against the FRY in 1999. There are many more examples of this, and the most recent ones were given by the Russians, because the message sent to Ukraine is that the damage will be great for everyone. In the background, we appreciate, is the preparation for possible negotiations to end the war in the current position on the ground, that is, by reconciling Kiev with the loss of part of the territory.

The War of the Cities may be meaningful if sustained over a longer period of time, but so far it seems to have only led to a radicalization of attitudes towards Russia. In a situation in which some NATO members were reconsidering their attitude towards the position of Ukraine and the sustainability of continuous supply of its army, now everything is crystal clear - the war continues, and support by sending resources for the war against Russia will be extensive.

The war will be long, judging by the fact that NATO is preparing plans for a ten-year reform program for the Ukrainian army. It also counts on the period of war and, let's assume, the post-war era, with a sharp division of the world. The coordination meeting takes place on the third week of October in Poland. The details of the plan were presented at a briefing at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, which was attended by a journalist from "Vremena", a signatory of these lines. Complete westernization of the Ukrainian army is planned, including the transition from Soviet weapons to new ones from NATO, followed by changes in doctrine, tactics and training. In parallel, work is already underway on the program to rebuild the military infrastructure once the war is over and on investing in the Ukrainian military industry. The starting point for NATO is the positive experiences from the period from 2014 until the war, when a large number of Ukrainian soldiers went through training courses, the non-commissioned officer corps was introduced into the structure of the armed forces, and reorganization was carried out. According to NATO, the result is agile and flexible forces that adapted to the real situation on the ground during the war. That is why they survived almost eight months of war against Russian power.

AIR defense as a priority

We followed the meeting of NATO defense ministers held in Brussels on October 11 and 12, which focused on supporting Ukraine. The priority of all priorities now is the development of the Ukrainian integrated air defense system based on modern missile systems, which will be sent by the members of the alliance through bilateral agreements. In the shadow of Russian missile strikes deep in Ukraine, it was emphasized that NATO recognizes that the current level of Ukrainian air defense is not sufficient for effective defense and that something must be done. A day before the start of the ministerial meeting, on October 11, NATO boasted of one German move - handing over the first of four batteries of the new IRIS-T air defense missile system to the Ukrainian army.

The destruction zone of that system is up to 40 km in distance and 20 km in height. The battery includes a 250 km Swedish-made Girafa 4A radar, a command post and three launchers, with eight rockets each. In the spring, when the Germans promised IRIS-T, the problem was the production deadline and it was overcome by the agreement between Berlin and Cairo that some of the ordered batteries should be diverted to Ukraine, and that replacements would be made later. That is why the Germans handed over the first battery now and three more batteries will follow, one of them maybe before the end of this year, and the others at the beginning of next year.

Now we are waiting for what the other NATO members will do, in accordance with the defined plan to make the Ukrainian air defense effective and deeply echeloned. In the initial phase of the war, NATO members delivered mainly light portable anti-aircraft missile systems of various models, with a maximum destruction zone of up to 6,5 km. Some self-propelled launchers such as the British Starstrike were an exception to the rule, but their destruction zone exceeded shoulder-launched missiles by only a few hundred meters, which in real war conditions was not a relevant difference.

The shift in the depth of the zone of action will be the NASAMS missile system promised by the Americans, because its missiles can reach a target 30–50 km away, depending on the model of the missile. Of course, this is information that refers to the maximum distance, and not to the oblique parameter, that is, the realistically achievable distance of the target from the place of the launcher. The first two batteries were promised as emergency support, and on October 11, American sources officially confirmed that in the context of the Russian missile offensive, funds for air defense will arrive "soon", and that another six units have been approved as a donation, but for a longer period of time. The Ukrainian Air Force needs funds as soon as possible and in large quantities, and now we are waiting to see what the NATO members will do.

The colorful selection of techniques and means newly introduced in weapons such as IRIS-T is probably a technological risk, but there is no choice, as a defensive approach is now a politically convenient solution. Pushing Ukraine to acquire long-range surface-to-surface missile systems such as ATACMS is not currently an acceptable solution, as Moscow has made it clear that this is out of the question and would be considered a direct NATO entry into the war. Russia's massive and systematic attacks on Ukraine's state infrastructure launched on October 1st with cruise missiles are now the reason for quick decisions to strengthen air defense, and this seems like a propagandistically viable approach.

In terms of the expected results, it will be a serious challenge for the Russian side, because the effectiveness of its offensive potential will be reduced. A hot topic is the shooting down of cruise missiles, which is a serious challenge for NATO missile systems, and it has yet to be seen in real life how feasible it is to intercept high-speed missiles. The new missile systems will be an obstacle for the actions of the Russian strike aviation, which, admittedly, are quite rare in depth, but are present above the front.

A prerequisite for the deployment of missile units closer to the front is a high saturation with new means, which will ensure Russian supremacy in airspace. The full effects of this approach will be noticeable when Ukrainian offensive power is strengthened, and now it seems certain that in the long term Ukrainian pilots will receive modern aircraft. For now, in the field of aviation, support is limited to the acquisition of aircraft from the USSR era.

The first step in the offensive approach of the air defense is the integration of AMRAAM anti-radar missiles on MiG-29 fighters, which is a solution that has been used since this summer. Additional AMRAAM missiles are now routinely sent from America to replenish the stockpile. They are part of the latest package approved on October 14, which mainly refers to munitions to replace those that have been used up. The Americans will send more GMLRS missiles for M142 HIMARS multi-barrel launchers, another 23 thousand 155 mm missiles (a total of 904 thousand pieces have been approved since the beginning of the war), and another 500 155 mm M9823 Excalibur guided missiles (3000 so far). The Americans had previously already donated two thousand 155 mm cluster missiles with anti-tank mines, and the remotely placed obstacles to Russian tanks obviously proved to be a good solution, because now another five thousand such missiles are going to the Ukrainian artillery. U.S. war aid has so far reached a value of $17,6 billion, in the estimated value of used and new goods. A lot of money compared to Ukraine's potential, which according to the rebalancing of the budget for this year should amount to about 10,5 billion dollars for all expenses.

Other allies are also "packing" packages for Ukraine. Now the goods in demand are winter clothing, because even if the winter is mild, it is cold on the field. The Canadians will advise and supply the necessary uniforms. The Russians have enough experience with the cold, but still only to find where stocks of winter uniforms are hidden or missing. Some critics of the situation of the Russian rear service say that as many as one and a half million sets of uniforms are missing. The mobilized must be provided with clothing, and a sign that the Kremlin is carefully monitoring the problems is the replacement of the head of material and technical security of the armed forces.

DRONES IN ACTION

photo: ap photo

The accuracy of Ukrainian artillery has given the Russian military a lot of trouble, but now there is an answer to that challenge – Iranian drones. They are a cheap and massive solution that will provide the Russians with a guided missile balance for HIMARS.

In the first waves of the missile offensive from October 10, the Russians hit with cruise missiles, but Geran-2 drones, renamed the Iranian Shahed-136, are gradually being used more and more. It is not easy to shoot down that drone even though it does not fly fast, about 185 km/h, but the low flight height and insignificant radar reflection make this simple hang glider a very effective tool. There is a characteristic sound on the ground that can be compared to a Tomos engine, and then there is very little time left to do anything. The Ukrainians try to shoot the drones with automatic rifles and machine guns, and sometimes they hit, but most miss. The tactic of applying Geran-2 is in mass - several pieces are sent to one object of action, and thus the probability of destruction increases significantly.

photo: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Basically, the drone is sent to a target that is recognized as lucrative. If it is about the front line and the closer, tactical depth, the position of the target can be determined by the reconnaissance drone and transmit the image to the ground, to prepare the action with Geran-2. In the combat premiere of Iranian drones, they destroyed high-value artillery pieces such as 203 mm self-propelled howitzers and 155 mm howitzers. In the war of cities, they were used to destroy objects that are hundreds of kilometers away from the launch site. In preparation for such tasks, the drone is sent on a flight without returning to previously set coordinates. The Russians lack effective systems for deep reconnaissance, and therefore the problem of choosing the objects of action is equally reflected in the use of cruise missiles and small drones.

At first glance, the more suitable choice are missiles such as the H-101, which are launched from strategic bombers and reach the target at a cruising speed of approximately 700 km/h, or the 9M723 quasi-ballistic missile for the Iskander system, which can fly part of the trajectory at speed 5,9 times the speed of sound. Their 400 kg warheads are ten times larger than the payload carried by the Geran-2. Those "big" rockets are too expensive and cannot be replenished quickly. The drones are outnumbered and their chances of overcoming the defenses have proven to be quite solid. Some fail, some are shot down, but enough drones arrive where they are sent. For the Ukrainian air defense, it will be a big problem how to find a solution to defend against the boring, noisy, small and murderous machines created in the factory of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. For NATO, it will be a challenge to find a way to shoot down those drones, but for the sake of the Ukrainians and for themselves, they will have to make an effort. It is already known that it is not a good idea to send drone fighters, because on October 12, the Ukrainian aviation was left without a MiG-29 in an attempt to shoot down the Geran-2 over the city of Vinnytsia. He got too close and the remains of both aircraft fell to the ground.

In addition to Geran-2, an aircraft of the same name with serial number one is also used in the war. The remains of the first copy of Geran-1 were found on October 13 near Kiev, and upon examination it was found that it was a Russified Shahed-131. The main difference compared to Geran-2 is more than three times smaller warhead, of some 15 kg. They are an even cheaper choice for action, albeit against small-scale targets, but for war, statistics and constant pressure on the opponent are important. That's why the Gerani 1 and 2 are now important Russian assets for the winter months when it will be more difficult to launch tank battalions, but there will be no problem sending dozens of drones into the air every day on their way without returning.