As hosts of important US-Iran talks, Pakistani officials express optimism, stressing that, unlike many others, they enjoy the trust of both parties.
Photo: AP Photo/Anjum NaveedSoldiers on the streets of Islamabad
The man who leads American delegation, vice president JD Vance, also sounds optimistic.
"If the Iranians are ready to negotiate in good faith, we are certainly ready to lend a hand of cooperation," he said before leaving the US.
But there was also a warning.
"If they try to deceive us, then they will realize that the negotiating team will not be so receptive."
Photo: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, PoolLeader of the American delegation
The question of Lebanon
Israeli attacks on Iran's ally in Lebanon, groups Hezbollah, threaten to derail the negotiations before they even begin, writes the BBC.
"Continuing these actions will make negotiations pointless," Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian wrote on the X network.
"Our fingers are still on the trigger. Iran will never abandon its Lebanese brothers and sisters."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says there is "no ceasefire" when it comes to Hezbollah, but repeated Israeli warnings to residents of Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate have not yet led to further action.
Donald Trump says that Israeli actions in Lebanon will now be "somewhat quieter", and the US State Department says that direct talks between Israel and Lebanon will be held next week in Washington.
Photo: Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via APIranian delegation
The Strait of Hormuz issue
Another issue that can stall negotiations from the start is the key oil sea passage - The Strait of Hormuz.
Donald Trump says Iran is "doing a very bad job" of letting ships through the strait, despite initially saying it would.
“This is not the deal we have!” he declared in a post on Truth Social, accusing Iran of “dishonorable behavior”.
Very few vessels are getting through, while hundreds of ships and an estimated 20.000 seamen remain trapped in the Gulf.
Having gained control of this key waterway, Iran seems determined to formalize it, calling it sovereign Iranian waters and talking about new rules about what can and cannot pass through.
On Thursday (April 9), he announced the creation of new transit routes north of the existing two channels to separate traffic. It was announced that the new routes are necessary "to avoid the presence of various types of anti-ship mines in the main traffic area."
Amid reports that some ships that managed to get through in recent weeks have paid $2 million in fees, Trump warned that Iran "better not tax tankers."
Photo: AP Photo/Anjum NaveedThe negotiations are taking place in Islamabad
Nuclear issue
Probably the biggest and certainly the longest-lasting point of contention is the nuclear issue.
Trump said he was launching Operation Epic Fury, in part to ensure Iran "can never have a nuclear weapon."
Iran claims it has never tried to build a bomb - which most Western governments view with great skepticism - but insists that, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it has the right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
Iran's 10-point proposal, which Trump described as a "workable basis for negotiations," includes a demand for international recognition of enrichment rights.
Trump's 15-point plan, according to reports, requires Iran to "cease all uranium enrichment on its territory." But when asked about it earlier this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegsett said only that Iran "will never have a nuclear weapon or the ability to get one."
It took years for international negotiators to reach the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which dealt with this complex issue in great detail.
Are the two sides ready to discuss a new agreement?
Iran's regional allies
Iran's network of regional allies and proxy groups – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and various militias in Iraq – has given Tehran regional influence, allowing Iran to exercise what is often called a "defence front" in long-running disputes with Israel and the United States.
Since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, the network Iran calls the "Axis of Resistance" has been under constant attack. One part of it, the regime of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, no longer exists.
But Israel sees the "Axis of Evil," as it calls it, as an existential threat that needs to be completely eradicated.
At a time when Iran's economy is faltering, many Iranians would also like their government to spend less on foreign adventures and more on improving everyday life.
So far, however, there are few signs that Iran is ready to give up on its allies.
Sanctions mitigation
The Islamic regime has been suffering heavy international sanctions for decades. It demands the lifting of all US and international sanctions as part of any agreement.
On Friday (April 10th), Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Kalibaf said an estimated $120 billion in frozen Iranian assets must be released before negotiations can begin.
As he said, it is one of the two previously agreed measures (the other is a ceasefire in Lebanon).
However, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's April 7 announcement announcing a two-week ceasefire made no mention of the release of frozen assets. It is not clear which agreement Kalibaf was referring to.
It seems highly unlikely that the Trump administration is willing to make such a big concession just to get negotiations started in the first place.
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