Closing the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran is crucial for trade oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LNG). About a fifth of the world's oil transport has so far gone through that bottleneck. This reinforces customers' fears of supply disruptions and raises the question of alternative sources - for example from Africa.
Can African oil-exporting countries increase production in the short term and thus stabilize prices on the world market?
"African countries play only a secondary role in the short term," Robert Capel tells DW. "They can help, but not fast enough and not to the extent that would be needed," adds the former president of the Hamburg institute GIGA, writes DW.
For example, Nigeria has increased exploitation again, but in order to further increase production, investment is needed – meaning that any reaction would only be possible in the medium term. Smaller countries like Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea have no reserves and cannot increase production.
Another factor: "International oil companies producing in African countries have reduced their investments in recent years, partially sold assets to national governments or companies, and at the same time reduced exploration for new oil fields," Capel says. Capacities, therefore, would have to be gradually expanded again so that Africa could play a greater role internationally in the future energy markets.
In the short term, Africa can make only a limited contribution to mitigating the current crisis in the supply of oil and gas, according to Štefan Liebing, director of the investment company Conjuncta, which is focused on the African continent. "Africa's role is more medium-term, especially in the supply of natural gas," Liebing tells DW. Since 2022, European countries have shown great interest in African gas, because they no longer want to buy energy from Russia and thus finance the war in Ukraine.
In fact, the world economy, considering the climate crisis and the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, should have reduced the consumption of fossil fuels a long time ago. In the short term, however, the dependence on oil is still huge, so the rise in prices since the beginning of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran has unpredictable consequences for companies, governments and consumers in countries around the world.
Nigeria has potential but…
Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and "definitely has the potential" to increase production, Nigerian analyst Ayodele Oni told DW. That country, however, currently lacks all the technical and operational capacity to respond to global supply disruptions. "The biggest obstacle is the lack of significant backup capacity," explains Oni.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly oil market report for March 2026 said Nigeria produced about 1,42 million barrels per day – and additional available capacity was: zero.
"This practically means that the current level of production already represents the maximum that the country can sustain in the short term," explains Ayodele Oni. "There is no spare capacity that can be quickly activated in case of market shocks."
Problems of the Nigerian oil industry
According to Oni, additional problems are poor infrastructure, outdated pipeline network, insufficient funding and security problems in the Niger Delta – the center of Nigeria's oil industry. In addition, the development of large projects, especially in the deep sea, takes a very long time.
"With such projects, many years often pass between the investment decision and the start of exploitation. This means that even the growth of global prices, which encourages investment, would not quickly bring new volumes of oil to the market," emphasizes Oni.
Although Nigeria has not introduced new measures in response to the current global crisis, there have long been initiatives to increase oil and gas production that are now accelerating. As an important example, Oni cites the One Million Barrels project, which aims to reactivate shut-in wells, speed up technical interventions and remove regulatory obstacles that previously slowed down oil field operations. Tax reforms should also attract investment and boost manufacturing growth.
Despite improvements in security, fewer oil thefts and better monitoring, output remains well below the targets set by President Bola Tinubu's government at the start of its term, writes Clementine Wellop, lead analyst for sub-Saharan Africa at consultancy Horizon Engage.
"In this crisis situation, Nigeria will continue with all these initiatives, but there is no magic button that can be pushed for the country to immediately benefit from higher prices and alleviate the global oil and gas supply crisis," says Wellop.
Photo: Pexels/Miguel CuencaIllustration
Refineries as an additional problem
Another problem - although more for the domestic market than for the global economy - is the dilapidated state refineries. Nigeria has long been dependent on imported refined fuels, although it has exported crude oil. The country often sold oil in order to use the money to buy gasoline and diesel.
As of 2024, the situation has changed somewhat: the largest private refinery in Africa, built by billionaire Aliko Dangote, has opened in Lagos. It processes about 650.000 barrels per day and supplies the domestic market with about 60 million liters of fuel per day.
However, according to Oni, the Dangote refinery is primarily of regional importance - it strengthens the supply of Nigeria and West Africa, but does not have a decisive impact on the global market.
How much oil can Angola offer?
The second largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa is Angola. The country in southwest Africa left the OPEC cartel in 2023 in order to more flexibly decide on the quantities of oil it sends to the world market.
The government in Luanda is investing heavily in increasing oil production and developing natural gas deposits for the LNG market, Angolan energy expert Flavio Inosencio told DW.
"Because of the war in Ukraine and the crisis on Middle East Angola has again become attractive for Western investors."
The Angolan government initially reacted cautiously. Economy Minister Jose de Lima Massano told Bloomberg on March 6 that rising oil prices bring "good news" for producing countries. However, he also warned that due to higher transport costs, many products that Angola imports will become more expensive.
Africa cannot replace the Middle East
Even if African countries like Nigeria or Angola were to increase production in the short term, they would not be able to compensate for losses in oil and gas supplies from the Middle East, Inocencio explains:
"Africa only produces about ten percent of the world's oil. That's not enough to replace the roughly 20 million barrels a day that pass through the Strait of Hormuz."
