Biggest winner Trump's dismantling of international rules sits in Moscow, and this is what makes the situation really dangerous for Europe.
Thus, one of the consequences of American-Israeli of the war with Iran is described by the German weekly "Spiegel".
The respected newspaper recalls that just a few weeks ago, the mood among Russia's economic elite was gloomy: "The budget was based on an oil price of $59 per barrel, and oil and gas revenues fell in January to their lowest level since 2020. The costs of the four-year war in Ukraine they threatened to spill over into an economic crisis".
"Very, very pleased" Russian officials
And then the US and Israel attacked Iran. When Iran retaliated and the war escalated into a regional conflagration, tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for global energy transport, largely stopped – and the price of oil skyrocketed.
"Suddenly Moscow got this gift," says Vladimir Milov, Russia's former deputy energy minister. Russian officials are "very, very pleased."
Photo: Royal Thai Navy via APThai merchant ship damaged in the Gulf of Hormuz
Instead of selling its oil at a discount due to Western sanctions, Russia can now demand premium prices because its main buyers, India and China, are desperate for oil, and they have the blessing of Washington to buy, as the US Treasury Department granted India a 30-day exemption to buy Russian oil that is otherwise under US sanctions.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the US could "de-sanction other transactions with Russian oil".
"Russia has been and remains a reliable supplier," Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the other hand, while Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev boasted on IX that the "tsunami of the oil shock" had only just begun.
License to sell Russian oil
As of March 12, in response to oil shortages due to the war with Iran, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) authorized the delivery and sale of crude oil and petroleum products originating in Russia that are currently at sea, or loaded onto ships.
That partial suspension of sanctions will be valid, for now, until April 11.
"Crude oil and petroleum products originating in Russia that are subject to that general license include products from entities sanctioned under the Russia Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations or the Ukraine/Russia Sanctions Regulations," the OFAK website said.
The General License, as specified, does not authorize any other transactions or activities prohibited by any other Executive Order not specified, including any transaction or activity involving Iran, the Government of Iran, or goods or services of Iranian origin.
Photo: Davoud Ghahrdar/ISNA via APSmoke billows over the Freedom Monument in Tehran
Bessent announced that the decision on the temporary license to sell Russian oil and oil derivatives was made in order to increase the global reach of the existing supply.
Allowing countries to buy Russian oil currently at sea, Bessent said, is a narrowly defined and short-term measure that applies only to oil already in transit and will not bring "significant financial benefit to the Russian government."
Everything is going in Russia's favor.
Thus, on several levels, Russia became a temporary winner of the American-Israeli war with Iran.
The oil that it could only sell to a limited number of countries for less than 60 dollars per barrel, it can now sell to the most populous country for 100 dollars per barrel, with the fact that the price could be higher. In addition, due to the relaxation of sanctions, Russia will be able to sell oil to other countries as well.
The President of the European Council, Antonio Kosta, assessed the unilateral decision of the United States of America to lift sanctions on the export of Russian oil as worrying, because it affects European security.
The growing economic pressure on Russia is of crucial importance for that country to accept serious negotiations for a just and lasting peace, Košta wrote on the X social network. The weakening of sanctions strengthens Russian resources and the war of aggression against Ukraine, according to Košta.
German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz also sees the US easing of sanctions against Russia as "wrong".
At the same time, the entire attention of the USA was turned to the conflict with Iran, so Ukraine disappeared from the radar of the White House.
There is a fear in Kiev that the American armed forces in Iran will fire a huge amount of missiles and spend an enormous amount of money, and that the Ukrainians will not be able to count on American military aid for a long period of time.
