Hungary under the authority of the Prime Minister Viktor Orban is one of Serbia's main allies within the European Union, in which, after a whole wave of repression, Aleksandar Vučić is receiving more and more criticism. The President of Serbia has found a certain support in Hungary for his undemocratic behavior and, together with Orban, he is seen as someone who is undermining the fundamental values of the EU by his actions, writes Deutsche says.
The two countries are seen as platforms for Russia, but also China, for ideological and economic penetration into Europe, which all together brings Orban and Vučić into increasingly frequent conflicts with Brussels.
Authoritarianism and corruption unite the two leaders
If the political profiles of Vučić and Orban were to be analyzed more carefully, it could be said that, apart from the autocratic way of governing, they also have a lot of differences. Orbán's key topics are the fight against migration and opposition to EU aid to Ukraine, where the two leaders differ.
Vučić is not so pressured by the migrant crisis, and he also received praise from the EU during the great wave of migration in 2015 for the good treatment of migrants. On the other hand, Serbia also sends weapons to Ukraine.
It could be said that authoritarianism and corruption are the bonds that connect Budapest and Belgrade, as well as some kind of fight against the real or imagined enemy of the state sovereignty of Serbia and Hungary.
Source: FoNet/APViktor Orban and Aleksandar Vučić at breakfast in Subotica
Brotherhood without ideology
It is difficult to find an ideology that connects them, Aleksandar Popov, director of the Center for Regionalism from Novi Sad, points out for DW.
"It's more about a brotherhood in terms of authoritarianism and a subversive relationship towards the EU - Orban from the inside, and Vučić from the outside. These are some more personal relationships, which last as long as those personal friendships, and relations between states quickly deteriorate when one of them loses power. They are also brothers in terms of corruption, and we see that even now Vučić is coming to the rescue before the elections, because it is difficult for Orban to step down from power after 16 years of rule," says Popov.
Toleration of Hungarian revanchism
Relations between Hungary and Serbia were not particularly good because of the issue of the Hungarian minority in Serbia, but that has changed since the arrival of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in power, points out Duško Lopandić, president of the Forum for International Relations:
"In the case of Hungary, the SNS government swallowed, so to speak, the elements of historical revanchism that exist in Hungarian politics, and they tolerated it. In return, they received the support of Hungarian parties in Serbia, and later business ties also developed. So Hungary somehow got too big a stake in Serbia, first of all through the economy - mainly in the fields of banking and energy," Lopandić told DW.
The fall of Orban – a psychological blow
Forecasts give Orban's opponent Peter Magyar a better chance of victory. If he wins, it will certainly have an impact on politics in Serbia.
This will mean the loss of an important ally on the international scene for Vučić, believes Aleksandar Popov, and adds that it "would also affect the Union of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM), which is in coalition with the SNS":
"The question is how they will behave if there is another government in Budapest. On the other hand, it would also be a psychological blow, because it would show that even those who rule for so long have the end of their rule, despite the fact that they were authoritarian rulers," emphasizes Popov.
Photo: Tamas Vasvari/MTI via AP, filePeter Magjar in the pre-election campaign
The weakening of Vučić's international position
Until now, Viktor Orban has been a kind of guarantor of the veto in the case of a toughening of the EU's attitude towards the regime of Aleksandar Vučić, so Orban's loss of the election would be a significant blow for Vučić, observes Duško Lopandić:
"A tougher stance by the EU cannot be ruled out, given the drastic increase in violence, corruption and repression in Serbia. Orban's defeat might not be decisive, but it would certainly weaken Vučić's international position as well. It would partially affect Vučić's potential within Serbian society," says our interlocutor.
Fragile partnership
If Orban remains in power, it will mean that the duo will continue their activities as before, believes Aleksandar Popov, but at the same time he warns that "the partnership of two countries, which is based on the personal relations of the two leaders, can be fragile. An example of this is the relationship between Vučić and Edi Rama, because at one point Rama said that the Open Balkans had completed its role, after four years of inseparable partnership. This is how Orban will calculate whether it is in his interest to remain close to Vučić", he notes. Popov.
I think that in case of Orban's victory, Vučić "might be able to decide on the variant of quick elections in June this year", says Duško Lopandić:
"It's just one moment, but first of all, we would analyze the internal situation in Serbia. We also see some unusual phenomena, such as the disintegration of the right-wing group in the parliament, and this is one of the elements that the government always works on before the elections, which is to split the opposition as much as possible and attract as many of those who are on their side as possible," emphasizes Lopandić.
Photo: AP Photo/Anna SzilagyiAutocracy unites Orban and Vučić
Two leaders – two systems
A lot of parallels have been drawn between the authorities in Serbia and Hungary, but our interlocutors warn that the whole story cannot be viewed only from the angle of personal ties between Vučić and Orban. While Hungary, as an EU country, still has respect for some democratic standards, Serbia, they say, has almost sunk into complete political and legal anarchy. The statements of the President of the Constitutional Court of Serbia, Vladan Petrov, "how he will think about whether he will do some cases or not", and that he "put some difficult cases in a drawer" confirm this.
There is no doubt that there are differences, "because Vučić has already crossed all the red lines and I don't know how much the rest of the EU would tolerate any steps in a similar direction if Orban were to remain in power," Popov points out, adding "that the Vučić-Orban relationship is already endangering other European countries and the region."
A short story about the gas pipeline
The very fact that the opposition party Tisza was created from the dissident wing of Orban's Fidesz, for Dusko Lopandić, is "simply an unimaginable situation with Vučić".
"In Serbia, elections can no longer be called elections, much less fair and just elections. Serbia has become a training ground for foreign services, including Russian ones, and Vučić even brags about it. And now we have this interference in the Hungarian elections, and the story about a migrant and explosives near the gas pipeline. But, it should be noted here that for the regime in Serbia, that story only lasted 24 hours and was then forgotten," concludes Lopandić for DW.
Source: DW
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