The Passion of Friedrich Merz

In Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a sensational victory. In Berlin, the Left is overwhelmingly in first place. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD is the single strongest party, but the government will probably be formed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in coalition with the Greens and the Left. For the first time in its history, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) did not even manage to pass the five percent threshold.

Elections in three provinces, September 6 and 20, and three debacles of the Christian Democrats. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who leads the coalition government with the SPD, had no choice but to admit that the result was "dramatic", "a heavy blow" that will "resound for a long time", that his party is only partially the powerful people's party it once was, and that the CDU "has no answers to too many questions".

Admittedly, neither do fellow social democrats, who also helplessly watch the polarization of German society, which is turning more and more sharply to the right, while the moderate parties of the center are losing ground more and more quickly.

CHANCELLOR'S RUN AHEAD

However, Merz does not think of putting his resignation on display, although his roses have not been blooming since the first day, when in May 2025, after painstaking negotiations with the SPD and agreeing to many compromises, he secured a majority for the "black and red" government and became chancellor.

He decided to "escape in advance", writes the German "Spiegel". When it was clear at around six o'clock on Sunday evening that the CDU had suffered two more catastrophic defeats in the provincial elections, he immediately appeared in front of the press and, after taking responsibility for the slaps they received from voters, announced that he intended to continue with his "reform course", whose motto is "growth through performance, relief and stricter rules". Even some of his party colleagues were quite annoyed by this.

Boris Rein, the Prime Minister of Hessen, reproached him for not saying anything new, and in the "insensitive language of the nineties of the last century".

Disputes are yet to come and it is clear to Merc that he will have to change something, especially since there is massive resistance in the ranks of the coalition partner to part of the reforms related to the termination of social benefits. On the other hand, some Christian Democrats would even tighten the reforms, while one faction would loosen them a little.

After the heavy defeat in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rein wrote on the X platform that "others" must not be left to interpret the everyday issues of citizens and justice. By that he was referring to the AfD and the Left, writes "Spiegel". He demands from Merc that the rise in fuel and heating prices be stopped, the reduction of parental allowance and the increase in tax on groceries be abandoned. He is not alone in that.

RIGHT-WING MARCH ON THE RACHSTAG

photo: ap photo

According to the latest public opinion survey, after this series of provincial elections, the AfD reached a record 29,5 percent of support at the federal level, while the CDU/CSU (the union of the Christian Democrats with its traditional partner, the Christian Social Union of Bavaria) remained at 19,5 percent. The SPD and the Greens are at 13,5 percent, and the Left at 10,5 percent.

Upon taking office as chancellor, Mertz promised to halve the support for right-wing parties, which in May 2025 was 23 percent. This already struck fear into the bones of the liberal parts of German society, who literally saw black before their eyes - neo-Nazis in an unstoppable, victorious march to the Reichstag, that is - the Bundestag, the German parliament. Since then, the CDU/CSU has recovered by another six percent.

The plan to create a "sanitary cordon" around the AfD, as a "right-wing populist threat", from all other parties and almost all German media failed. The oaths that no one will ever cooperate with these "newcomers", let alone join a coalition, are still in force, but the question is when they will buckle under the pressure of reality, in which a third of German voters support them. The more radical the AfD became, the stronger it was.

Extremism researcher Gideon Boch explains that the flirtation with neo-Nazism has not, as previously thought, reduced support for the AfD, but quite the opposite.

"We assume that the willingness to vote for the AfD is growing massively, and that the stigma associated with it has clearly melted away," Boč told the DPA agency.

THE ATTITUDE OF THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS TOWARDS NAZISM

While the sprinkling of ashes for the Holocaust and other Nazi crimes entered the DNA of German boomers and Gen Xers, millennials began to hear the same stories, which they began to feel as an imposition of collective guilt. German institutions did not recognize this resistance of the younger generations in time, nor did they manage to modernize the confrontation with the dark side of German history. And that opened up space for a right-wing revision of Nazism.

The AfD appeared, shouting - all our sins are forgiven, and they weren't quite as big as they preach!

Alternative skillfully used the refugee crisis in 2015 and 2016, after the initial euphoria in which Germany saw itself as a country with an open heart for people fleeing the hardships of war. Although the German economy is geared towards foreign labor, about 50 percent of Germans blame dark-skinned "Auslanders for the increased crime rate, housing shortages, violence in schools or lower incomes."

And the AfD offers a solution - "remigration", a legally and conceptually flexible term, but which is essentially based on the ideology of blood and soil that should be cleansed of unassimilated foreigners.

There is also social discontent, especially in the east of Germany. While inflation between 2020 and 2025 was 21,8 percent, incomes rose by barely 11 percent.

By the way, Hitler's party was officially called the National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP).

IMPATIENT AND REJECTED CHANCELLOR

Merc is certainly under pressure, and not only from the right. Only 13 percent of citizens say positively about him. Members of his government openly talk about the lack of confidence in his cabinet. So, for example, Education Minister Karin Prin (also CDU) stated for the public broadcaster ARD: "I think many people got the impression that neither the chancellor, nor we as Christian Democrats, do not have enough empathy. And that must change."

One can often hear the opinion that the chancellor seems impatient and repulsive when he talks about the painful reforms of the pension system or about the opinion of many Germans that one should work four days a week and balance business and work life. The chancellor dismisses it as blasphemy that could lead to the collapse of German prosperity.

In such an atmosphere, according to critics, it is difficult to implement reforms that are inherently unpopular. Mertz is the face of the defeat of the Christian Democrats, but no one is vying for the chancellor's chair, nor does he give any signs that he is ready to resign.

TOXIC CONDITIONS

The reason, according to political scientist Thomas Bibricher, is that it is not at all rewarding to lead the government in the conditions of rising energy prices, the endless war in Ukraine and weak economic growth. The framework conditions are toxic, and there is also tension with the administration of Donald Trump.

In an interview with "Frankfurter Rundschau", Bibricher expressed the opinion that Mertz is not the only one responsible for the country's collapse, but that it is a matter of structural errors that go back years. He believes that, instead of putting the economy first, the Christian Democrats got caught in the web of eternal discussions about migration, social values ​​and whether or not they should distance themselves from the AfD.

The latest debacle of the CDU and the success of the AfD is explained by political scientist Marcel Lewandowski from the University of Halle Wittenberg with the general shift of society to the right and the unusual unpopularity of Chancellor Merz's government. And studies show that voters who once sway to vote for the AfD will not switch back to other parties as quickly. Lewandowski explains that the AfD successfully sowed distrust in state institutions and offered itself as a solution.

The alternative, writes Torben Lenning from the public service ARD, is a broader narrative according to which their success in the long term is inevitable. The problem is that, apparently, more and more voters believe in it, so the once-provoked party is becoming acceptable to more and more Germans.