The USA is allegedly planning to "separate" Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary from the EU. Is it true and how realistic is it? And why are these four countries the target of the alleged American plan?
Transatlantic relations have been seriously damaged since the re-arrival Donald Trump to power. Publication National security strategies (NSS) December 4, 2025, many European politicians experienced as an open insult. In that strategic document, which every US administration must submit to Congress, the Trump administration describes Europe like a continent in disintegration.
It literally talks about the "censorship" of free expression in Europe, the "suppression of political opposition" and the probable "disappearance of civilization" due to the current migration policy. DW.
Now, however, an alleged, previously unpublished draft of the NSS has been leaked, which is even more delicate - detailing how the US intends to operate in Europe.
According to that draft, US cooperation with Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary should be intensified, "with the aim of separating [from the European Union]", according to the American portal Defense One, which claims to have seen the document.
The White House, however, denies that such a draft exists. However, the question arises: is the US trying to divide the European Union? And why should these four countries leave the EU?
The least surprising thing is that Hungary is on the list. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and President Donald Trump are considered close allies. Orbán endorsed Trump as early as the 2016 presidential campaign – at the time, he was the only current EU head of government to do so. The two know very well what they represent from each other. As a constant disrupter of the European consensus, Orbán is destabilizing the EU and thereby weakening an institution that Trump deeply distrusts.
Orbán, on the other hand, is looking forward to the political support of the superpower. The US has reportedly offered Hungary, similar to Argentina recently, a $20 billion "financial protection shield" — the Hungarian economy is currently in bad shape and significant EU funding remains frozen. In a recent interview with Politico, Trump could not recall such a promise, but there are reportedly talks of financial cooperation. Trump has repeatedly emphasized his readiness to meet his "great friend".
The American president also speaks enthusiastically of Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni and her post-fascist party Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia).
However, Daniel Hegedis, regional director for Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, believes that the American administration's belief that Meloni could turn against the EU is wrong. Although there is a certain ideological closeness between Meloni and Orbán, she has not become a new blockader in the Union - in fact, today she approaches it very pragmatically. Few people, Hegedis told DW, understood so well how much a stable and functional EU means to Italy.
Poland and Austria currently do not have right-wing populist governments, but right-wing, Eurosceptic parties were in power in both countries until recently, and they still have a strong influence.
In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) won the most votes in the last elections and is leading in the current polls.
In Poland this summer, Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the right-wing conservative party Pravo i Pravda (PiS), won the presidential elections. The Trump administration probably reckons it could soon regain significant influence in both countries.
The biggest surprise is that two EU members were not on the list - the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
In the Czech Republic, the right-wing populist ANO party of billionaire Andrej Babiš won in October, forming a ruling coalition with the right-wing Motorista party and the extreme right-wing Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party.
Slovakia has been moving to the right since 2023 under the government of Robert Fitz. His nominally social democratic, but actually majority right-wing nationalist party, Smer-SD, was recently expelled from the Party of European Socialists (PES).
Both Babiš and Fico are outspoken skeptics of the EU: both have the potential to wreak havoc on European decision-making and undermine the EU's authority on strategic issues, particularly with regard to Russia and Ukraine—qualities likely to be valued by the Trump administration, given its current orientation.
So why weren't they included in the draft? Hegedis explains this by the origin of their parties. Babis's ANO could not be classified in the classic left-right spectrum for a long time, while Fitz's Smer-SD initially identified itself as left-wing: "It is clear how idealized the American approach is. Since Smer and ANO do not come from the classic right-populist milieu, the Americans do not count them as ideological comrades, even if they pursue policies that can be useful to the Trump government."
Some observers of transatlantic relations initially ignored the new US administration's first attempts to interfere in democratic processes in Europe - such as Vice President JD Vance's provocative speech at the Munich Security Conference at the beginning of the year. It was felt that the new government in Washington had yet to find its way. But since then, the American administration has repeatedly interfered - in the German, Romanian, Polish election campaign. The pattern is always the same: support for ideological allies of the Trump administration - and those who weaken Brussels.
That is why experts like Hegedis believe that the goal of the US is not Hungary, Italy, Austria or Poland leaving the EU - but the gradual undermining of European integration - a process that Washington could encourage with diplomatic, political and even financial support.
The first signs of this are already visible. The EU, for example, has agreed on a gradual abandonment of dependence on Russian energy: by the end of 2026, the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) should be prohibited, and by November 2027, the import of gas via pipelines should be prohibited.
Back in November, Orban received an exemption from US sanctions on Russian energy imports from Trump. He stated that the EU will not accept that decision and that he will bring the case before the EU Court of Justice. At a joint press conference with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on December 8, 2025, Orbán announced that Turkey will continue to guarantee the delivery of Russian gas to Hungary via the TurkStream gas pipeline.
Hegedis believes that in the coming years there will be more and more cases in which individual members will not respect joint decisions - which would gradually call into question the essence of European integration. Thus, the EU could gradually collapse - until one day it really loses its political weight.
Source: DW
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