"We expect actions, not words," said the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Lajen during her visit to Belgrade on October 15, and invited the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić to come to Brussels in a month and report on Serbia's progress on the European road.
Vučić, however, did not travel to Brussels in November, and as Deutsche Welle learns from several sources, the President of Serbia and the President of the European Commission could meet in Brussels at the end of next week.
The meeting did not take place earlier because, how? DW's interlocutors say, Serbia had nothing to show in its report, because it did not fulfill any of the assumed tasks.
"The European Commission, i.e. the European Council together with it, took the position that Serbia's progress will be measured exclusively through the commitments it undertook in last year's non-paper - namely the changes of three media of the law, the law on the voter list and the election of new REM members," Nemanja Todorović Štiplija, editor-in-chief of the European Western Balkans portal, reminds DW.
But the list of topics will not remain only on the home field, adds the coordinator of the National Convention, Fr EU Bojana Selaković. She told DW that geopolitical issues will certainly be on the table, primarily the harmonization of Serbia's foreign policy with the EU's common foreign and security policy.
"And what is the biggest geopolitical topic now, which is the completion of the process around NIS, with which Serbia should free itself from energy dependence on Russia," adds Selaković.
Reforms in theory, regression in practice
Serbia fulfilled all the assumed obligations only partially. The media laws were changed, but this did not prevent the further collapse of media freedoms. The European Commission's latest report on Serbia's progress assesses that in the sphere of freedom of expression there has been a "setback, as the environment for journalists, media professionals and the media has seriously deteriorated."
In the Council of REM eight out of nine members were elected, and civil society sees the deliberate postponement of the election of the last member as an attempt by the government to maintain control over the regulatory body. Four already elected members are therefore threatening to resign if the process is not completed urgently.
When it comes to election conditions, the only formal change concerns the adoption of amendments to the Law on the Unified Voter List. This fulfilled the prerequisite for the implementation of in-depth control of the voter list, but it has not yet taken place in practice, the program director of the organization told DW. THE LINE Rasha Nedeljkov.
He reminds that in the last ten years, Serbia has ODIHR received 56 priority recommendations for improving election conditions, and according to the assessment of the mission itself, only four were implemented.
During that time, the situation on the ground worsens significantly, as confirmed by the last local elections in Negotin, Mionica and Sečnje, where fights, attacks on journalists, observers and members of the opposition, and numerous other irregularities were recorded.
"Serbia is rapidly plunging into an electoral autocracy, where the elections have become a farce and have been replaced by violent orchestrated bringing of voters to register only their presence at the polling station, and their will - with the threat of various mechanisms - has been taken away," Nedeljkov assesses.
Progress under lock and key
For three and a half years, Serbia has not opened any negotiation chapter or cluster in the European integration process. Due to unfulfilled reforms foreseen in the Growth Plan, the European Union has already postponed the payment of 111 million euros of support.
In October, the European Parliament passed a harsh resolution condemning political polarization and state repression in Serbia, and it was followed up by the Progress Report, which noted the decline in the areas of democracy, fundamental rights and freedom of the media.
According to our interlocutors, a change of mood in European circles would be good for the authorities in Serbia - both politically and financially. The government could use the opening of the cluster as proof of its own legitimacy, which has been significantly damaged by protests that have lasted for more than a year, and the payment of the first installment of the financial aid provided for in the Growth Plan would be an important injection for the budget.
But it no longer depends only on the Commission, reminds Bojana Selaković, but also on the member states, and the situation there is uncertain.
"The Baltic countries insist that Serbia completely turn away from its alliance with Russia. Another group of countries is very strict about the state of democracy and the rule of law, such as Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany still insists on processing the Banjska case," explains Selaković.
That is why, he adds, Serbia has had very intense diplomatic activities in recent weeks. The President of the Assembly Ana Brnabić visited Sweden, the Minister of European Integration Nemanja Starović visited the Netherlands, and the German Minister of Foreign Affairs Johann Wadeful also visited Serbia.
The pendulum swings.
Will the intensive diplomatic offensive help the government get what it envisioned this time? DW interlocutors believe that there are too many cards in the game.
After the tense local elections, the European Union requested a "quick and transparent" investigation into the incidents, and Raša Nedeljkov from CRTA says that invitations from member states and the EU delegation in Serbia were received even during the election day.
"If the citizens of Serbia are not alone - they are not. If the diplomatic methods of communication are very complicated and if we would all like much more direct communication and a much louder message - we would like it. Is it possible? At the moment it is obviously not. But the citizens of Serbia have a partner in the European Union, only sometimes that kind of support is not seen in the way we would like," Nedeljkov believes.
At the same time, in Brussels, they are dealing with crises that push Serbia to the bottom of the agenda. International relations expert Dušan Reljić reminds us that Ursula von der Leyen is currently putting out much bigger fires - from the US peace plan for Ukraine to relations with Israel and Gaza.
"Events in Southeastern Europe are of little importance for EU policy, because there is no greater danger of things going wrong. What could cause more thorough or stronger reactions from the EU is to show again and more clearly that Aleksandar Vučić and his regime are thoroughly destroying the beginnings of democracy in Serbia," says Reljić.
In practice, however, much suggests that geopolitical priorities may outweigh principles. Bojana Selaković believes that the EU, despite growing dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Serbia, is still motivated to keep Belgrade from losing its orbit.
"And that for a very pragmatic reason - because Serbia would then remain levitating in some kind of Turkish scenario and would actually be a much greater danger to the European Union than if it still remains in that one package, if it is recognized for some kind of minimal progress and in some way ensures the strategic interests of the European Union," concludes Selaković.
