Power on bayonets: The "terminal phase" of the regime can last a long time

A deep political crisis is shaking Serbia ten months. On the one hand, you can hear that the regime Aleksandar Vučić entered the "terminal phase", that it is "finished", and on the other hand, that the progressive government won the victory over the "colored revolution", that there are fewer and fewer protesters, and that the remaining ones will end up in prison if they exaggerate.

The legitimacy of the regime is in the "terminal phase", but that phase can last for a long time, say the interlocutors of "Vremen".

They warn that an increasing use of violence can be expected and that Aleksandar Vučić, from the point of view of political ability to survive, is still "very vital".

That is why the time has come for a wider social consolidation of students, civil movements and uncompromising opposition, but at the same time, we should not expect any spectacular actions from political actors, because the political scene has been destroyed, the interlocutors of "Vremen" warn.

Downward trajectory and bursting at the seams

"The terminal phase of the regime can last a very long time, even though the regime is so shaken that it will hardly be able to recover, it is on a downward trajectory and is definitely bursting at all seams and losing control," Dragan Popović from the Center for Practical Politics told Vreme.

Because, "we are dealing with people who control a lot of public money and all institutions, practically all power, and what is extremely important - all force."

"It is logical that the fall of such a structure does not come quickly. It will simply take a long time, and not only that, but considering their behavior, we can also expect that they will use increasing violence in an attempt to defend the indefensible, that is, their own government," Popović points out.

Crowding the ranks to the limit

The visible consolidation of the progressive ranks, the "purge" in the police and the dismissal of disobedient and disloyal ones in health care, education and other state institutions, as well as the "spontaneous" gathering of thousands of people who support the government, are for Popović a sign that the regime is "definitely weakening".

"It's a tightening of ranks to the extreme. They now rely exclusively on their narrowest core. This can be seen not only by the 'purges' of insufficiently loyal personnel, but also by the radical and often senseless messages that are not addressed to anyone who would even think critically, but to those who are already so poisoned that they can receive messages about conspiracies, Ustasha and other nonsense," says Popović.

His opinion is that this is not done by a strong, but a "seriously threatened" regime.

Students have the initiative.

At the same time, speaking about possible moves by the opposition and students, he emphasizes that society must face the fact that the regime has destroyed politics as such, the political scene, actors and rules.

He points out that it is therefore not unusual that there are no classical political elements as seen in democratic states: parties with clear programs, performances and behaviors.

"That's why I don't expect any special actions from political actors. It is the student movement that carries the wave that has engulfed a huge part of society and wipes out everything in front of it. It will be important that political parties and movements get involved at some point, but for now I don't expect them to take the initiative," concludes Popović.

The regime weakened, but on its feet

Dragomir Anđelković assesses for "Vreme" that the regime is "very weakened, but still standing on its feet" and that it is difficult to talk about a terminal phase.

"If we talk about legitimacy, he has reached the terminal stage, because Vučić no longer has anyone with him who really believes in him. His supporters know that he is using fraud, but they stay with him because of their interests," says Anđelković.

On the other hand, he warns that Vučić, from the point of view of his political ability to survive, is "very vital", that he has "a large community of interests, mercenaries of all kinds, those who are involved in various combinations and know that they can lose a lot."

"We have a kind of stalemate: the regime has lost the ability to survive in the long term, but it is ready to fight at any cost, because many are not fighting for power, but for their property and security, not to go to prison, and on the other side is the majority of citizens who are against the regime, but they do not have a political organization, because there is a lot of distrust in parties," Anđelković says.

A popular but abstract student-citizen movement

He warns that the "popular but abstract student-citizen movement" has moral strength, but that organizationally "it is not at that level that it can lead to complete changes."

On the other hand, the "purges" in state institutions and the organization of "spontaneous" gatherings show the readiness of the regime to crack down. Although faced with a lack of genuine support, the regime still "has money, material for blackmail and an interest community that benefits every day."

"In the first moment, at the beginning of the year, they were discouraged, they thought that everything was sinking and they thought more about running away. They came to their senses and put their hands on the sword when they saw that on the other side they did not have any thugs, but nice, decent and peaceful citizens who want democratic changes, but that they are not ready to fight for them in a way that goes beyond the system framework," Anđelković says.

Bayonet defense

He warns that what Vučić is doing now "is calculated to have bayonets defending him".

"Napoleon said that in the long term you can't sit on bayonets, but take power with bayonets. The regime now defends power with bayonets, and every day brings them benefits. Now is the time for wider social organizing: students, social movements and uncompromising opposition that would put pressure on Vučić on new grounds," Anđelković concludes.