"The participation of the human factor in the torrential floods on October 4 was present and the disaster could have been significantly mitigated," academician Dr. Muriz Spahić, expert in hydrology and geography, founder of the Association of Geographers of BiH and former dean and professor at the Faculty of Science, told "Vreme" Faculty of the University of Sarajevo
In the storm that is on October 4 hit Bosnia and Herzegovina at least 20 people died, and the search for at least the missing is still ongoing. Most of the victims were in Donja Jablanica, and there were also lives lost in this disaster in the villages near Fojnica and Konjica.
Academician Muriz Spahić, Ph.D., expert in hydrology and geography, founder of the Association of BiH Geographers and former dean and professor at the Faculty of Science, University of Sarajevo, talks about the causes of floods for "Vreme".
"VREME": What caused such a large amount of precipitation in a short period of time and why were the floods so intense?
MURIZ SPAHIĆ: That night between October 3rd and 4th on the Neretva basin in the river profile from Jablanica to the confluence of the Neretvica with the Jablaničko lake near the Buturović polje settlement and in the basins of the river system of the Fojnica river, which includes the tributaries of Bosnia in the triangle between Kiseljak, Fojnica and Kreševo, which belong to the region central Bosnia, a sudden strong storm occurred.
There was a burst of clouds, according to some reports, over 300 liters of water were released per one square meter in two to three hours.
This is the three-month average amount of precipitation for these basins.
Rainfall moved everything that was mobile in the watershed including bedrock, soil, woody debris and other material and transported it to lower elevations deepening existing streams turning them into gullies and rapids.
The burst of clouds is caused by a strong southwestern cyclone from the Mediterranean, especially the Adriatic Sea, whose central most pronounced branch was directed over the rather low Dalmatian Zagora towards the Dinaric system. Upon reaching the high mountains, first Čabulje, Prenja and Čvrsnica in the Neretva basin, and then Zec-planina, Pogorelica and Bitovnje in central Bosnia.
In the cyclonic activity, there was a combination of convective and orographic atmospheric processes, by which a huge amount of water vapor due to the upward flow along the mountain slopes, the warm air mass condensed very quickly, forming cumulonimbus clouds that broke through with precipitation precisely in these areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
How much did the human factor contribute to the disaster?
The described natural phenomenon is impossible to prevent. It occurred as a response to the droughts of the summer period, which affected the erosion processes due to the enormous heating of the surface rocks. All of the above is a consequence of climate fluctuations, which influence the more frequent formation of storms.
The participation of the human factor in the increased effect of torrents was present and the disaster could have been significantly mitigated.
If the watercourses on the mountain slopes were arranged and regularly maintained, the landfills and garbage dumps were constantly taken care of, the destructive power of the torrents could have been reduced; torrents represent a fluid with transported sediments.
If there are unorganized construction material dumps on the profile of the torrents, such as the quarries above lower Jablanica, it is evident that they will increase their destructive power, which, according to numerous information, has influenced the increase in fatal consequences.
What are the consequences of irresponsible construction, deforestation and concreting, can we expect them in the entire region?
We are witnessing irresponsible and illegal (unplanned) urbanization, ruralization, infrastructural and other facilities that certainly do not contribute to the quality of life and adaptation to climate change with significant consequences.
Any anthropogenic intervention in the natural and living environment must be harmonized with all elements and factors of natural processes. It is evident that there is no coherent action of anthropogenic actions, defined by laws, according to natural processes.
This discrepancy arises from intentional (for profit) and unintentional (ignorance) human action. There are numerous such examples.
Settlements are built in low alluvial plains that are periodically flooded; it is part of the river bed; the siparic, collivial, deluvial and proluvial slopes are intersected by road communications, which are the first to be hit by landslides, landslides and torrents, as is the case in Jablanica, where the road and railway were washed away in several places.
Spatial plans cannot allow the construction of settlements in the direction of watersheds, nor the construction of culverts under road communications with a permeable profile that can be blocked by a medium-sized tree stump or block of rock.
The law should not allow forestry companies to exploit forest resources without, among other things, taking care of flood control and afforestation.
All actions on the natural environment would have to go through the stages of programmatic, diagnostic and prognostic research with mandatory elaboration of the impact on the environment, after a public discussion with experts and the local community.
What are the risks in the coming days and what can be done?
They are predicting more precipitation in the coming days. What experience has taught me after many years of university teaching, publishing papers and writing the university textbook Climatology with meteorology - I do not believe in repeating the scenario from four days ago in the near future.
The actions that are in progress, and I consider them the most important, are the works on clearing, cleaning and putting residential and infrastructure facilities in order.
You say that experience teaches you. On that note, did you alert the authorities in any way to such scenarios?
Of course I did, and more than once. Since 1988, I have been fighting against the construction of water dams for the needs of the population and the economy on watercourses that are contaminated with heavy elements.
In recent times, through the Association of Geographers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, together with other associations, I work to eliminate or reduce environmental problems dedicated to the factors of life in various spheres, and especially against the construction of mini-hydroelectric plants, the design and implementation of various projects in the natural environment without research works and permits for which the procedures stipulated by law have not been implemented.
The fact that the Association of Geographers accepted my proposal to organize a Scientific Meeting with international participation last year (2023) is the best evidence of how involved I am, together with the members of the Association of Geographers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the forecasting problems we are talking about today. "Geographical causes and consequences of natural disasters". However, it could not be realized due to the lack of funds, because the relevant ministry gave us negligible symbolic funds.
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