Two decades ago, the Internet was incomparably smaller. You could read the Internet map from any better router (a device that directs Internet traffic to one side or the other). The author of this text remembers very well how a local network expert explained to him at the time that it is enough to cut only two or three main lines so that the Internet breaks into two parts and turns into a "splinternet".
Today, such a thing is simply not feasible. The number of cables connecting countries and continents is so great that it is difficult to list them, let alone cut them. In addition, the backbone of the Internet consists of protocols for the exchange of information that automatically redirect traffic from one link to another in the event of a breakdown. Cut Russia off from Europe and all Russian internet traffic will go through China.
Physical isolation is therefore not possible. But is such a thing possible on a "logical" level? In other words, can routers and other smart internet devices be taught to recognize traffic intended for Russia and redirect it "to nothing"?
Regulation of the Internet
In theory, yes. Every internet location has its own numerical address and when you type "vreme.com" into your browser, it will have to get information from somewhere about the address of the presentation you are currently on. This information is provided by the so-called DNS servers that are organized hierarchically, the one at the top was until recently the responsibility of the US Department of Commerce, and today it is taken care of by the non-profit organization ICANN (International Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers). If ICANN decided to delete information related to Russia's national internet domain (.ru) from its servers, all Russian submissions would overnight become invisible to all but those in Russia.
ICANN has other, even more effective mechanisms that it could use to largely limit Russian communication with the world, but ICANN does not want that, one would say rightly. The Internet became what it is precisely because it stayed away from politics, sticking to the principles of equality and impartiality. Given that access to the global network has not been restricted to anyone, imposing Internet sanctions on Russia would set a dangerous precedent.
Russia needs more internet
In addition, internet restrictions are not in the interest of Russian citizens who practically do not have access to independent means of information in their country and for whom the internet is the only real source of information. In short, Russia needs more internet, not less.
The West, therefore, will not erase Russia from the world wide web or restrict Russian Internet traffic. Which does not mean that Russia itself will not take steps in that direction. In fact, one would say that the process of Russian self-isolation is already underway.
Self-isolation experiment
Back in 2019, Russia conducted an experiment by completely disconnecting itself from the Internet for a short time. The goal was to determine whether the Russian network could survive such a thing. The experiment seemed bizarre at the time, but now, in light of the war in Ukraine, it makes full sense. Russia has already blocked "Facebook" and "Twitter" due to "inappropriate content" and silently accepted the fact that until yesterday neutral technical giants such as "Apple" and "Google" stopped offering their commercial services on the Russian market.
Putin also demanded that all Russian companies with servers abroad return their operating systems and data to state borders. After that, Putin could decide to radically isolate Russia from the world. Less internet, more state propaganda, strict control of the flow of information, something the Chinese have already done with their "Great Wall of Fire". The order is known there: everything that the state cannot eavesdrop on is illegal, and anyone who looks over the wall and communicates with the world should know that they can easily be traced.
The Chinese built their information wall based on the fact that the Internet is a window to the world. To that they added the wisdom of Deng Xiaoping, who noticed a long time ago that "clean air enters through an open window, but flies also enter." Flies are, in fact, "sinful" thoughts, ours or someone else's, it doesn't matter.
Whether Putin will emulate his Chinese neighbors when it comes to internet freedom or whether the Russian solution will be something entirely new remains to be seen. Iran and North Korea can also serve as a model, and there the use of the Internet is sanctioned or there is only a spoonful of it.
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