Student protests are a great enigma for the Serbian Progressive Party and Aleksandar Vučić, in 2025 they will gain strength and we should expect an implosion of the system and government, these are some of the statements of "Vremen" interlocutors asked about what political tendencies they expect in the coming year.
Our interlocutors agree that the offer to the opposition to hold elections in 2025, under the existing conditions, would be just another attempt by the government to consolidate its positions through fraud.
They believe that due to the situation caused by the tragedy in Novi Sad, the government will not update the issue of the "Jadar" project and lithium mining in the coming year, because it would only further irritate the citizens.
Student protests
Political scientist and research associate at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, Dejan Bursać, tells "Vreme" that he could even quote Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić regarding the student protests and says that it is possible that "in recent history we have not had such a thing".
"The opposition has a weaker influence on the protests and it seems that the matter has been completely taken over by young people and students, which is why it is such an enigma for SNS and Aleksandar Vučić, because there is no traditional political opponent across from him who he can discourage and force to give up with a combination pressures, oppression and sowing of internal divisions", Bursać believes.
He adds that this is why Vučić is "confused in his approach and communication", because one day he announces that he will send "Cobras" to abort students, and the next day he calls for peace, dialogue and joint work for Serbia.
"Vučić has a strategy to address exclusively his voters and hold them like a little water in the palm of his hand." Thus, the offer of cheap apartments is aimed at his voters, not at students. "As long as there is a student rebellion, it will be a problem for Vučić, because over time, that rebellion will increasingly enter his electorate through personal contacts," Bursać believes.
Political analyst Dragomir Anđelković agrees that students are a social force that weakens the regime, but points out that a complete civil movement would have to emerge from that force "for a normal Serbia, with only one goal, which is to hold fair elections and uninstall the cartel system."
He adds that it is up to the opposition to start working on the creation of such a movement, "to withdraw from the parliament and declare Vučić's rule as usurping and illegal, form a free parliament and address the international community and call for passive resistance and civil disobedience."
"If this is how things are done, by the end of next year Vučić's regime will be overthrown," Anđelković believes.
He estimates that the first months of next year will be similar to those at the end of 2024.
"Protests will gain strength, to which the regime will react a little aggressively, and a little confused, but persistent without being ready to back down." We will have serious political tug-of-war and we should not expect Vučić to collapse just like that. "He is weakening every day, but for now there is no strength that can completely knock him down," Anđelkovic told Vreme.
Political analyst Ognjen Gogić points out that students should not be underestimated at any cost, "because it is a generation that everyone thought was apathetic, but it turned out that it does not tolerate any authority figures and that is aware that it has no future in this kind of Serbia."
"Students themselves emphasized that their diplomas are worthless if the system is not changed, so they saw the situation we are in as an existential issue." That's why I don't see that the student protests will subside in the next year, but will continue to spread," Gogić believes.
He points out that protesting is a trend among students and that "it's become cool to be a part of it," and students see that protests are bigger than any of them individually.
"That's why I expect that they will cause trouble for the authorities." Everything the government did, measures and comments, was wrong and only further strengthened the students. The protest will spread, but the question is whether it will get a political articulation, that is, whether their demands will be transferred to the political field and whether they will be expressed through a political party, and ultimately through elections and entry into the parliament." says Gogić for "Vreme".
He also points out that the opposition cannot articulate student demands and represent the youth, which is why he would not be surprised if the student movement takes a political form.
He adds that unlike the mass crimes in "Vladislav Ribnikar" Elementary School and Dubona and Mali Orašje, "for which it was not possible to directly accuse the government", in the case of the fall of the canopy, the responsibility is very clear.
"In a few years, in retrospect, we will remember that event as a turning point." I expect the implosion of the system and the government. It can be seen that someone has to bear both political and criminal responsibility, and the government at the same time sends a message that no matter what you do for it, it will not protect you from the consequences in the end. This brings unrest among the government cadres. "Vučić explained it most succinctly when he said that 'no one will sign anything anymore,'" Gogić points out.
Project "Jadar"
Regarding the "Jadar" project, Gogić believes that in this case it is the same as with other constructions after the Novi Sad tragedy, because even in the case of the lithium mine, no one will want to sign anything, and the opening of the mine implies construction work.
He indicates that the issue of lithium is currently on the back burner, "that is, it is probably being worked on in the background", and that the issue could very easily be added to the list of student demands during the next year.
Dragomir Anđelković says that Vučić "obviously has obligations to continue with that project, because such parts are not made just like that".
"Probably, the corrupt government in Serbia has already received various benefits from that project and must not withdraw just like that." In the coming year, Vučić will in some way drop the ball, because he realizes that with that question he causes a revolt even among politically inactive citizens, and even those who are for him, but still he will not be allowed to give up on that project," Anđelković believes.
He points out that it is "a kind of ballast around Vučić's neck" and that it is one of the issues that the opposition should insist on.
"When it comes to lithium alone, I think that those forces that will one day take power in Serbia should not reject lithium, but only when Germany or another developed country starts exploiting lithium, and when we see what it looks like when it is done in urban or densely populated areas," says Anđelković.
According to his opinion, the lithium mine should be rejected until further notice and it should be vigorously fought against, "but we should not act intolerantly, so that those who come after Vučić could still make agreements with some significant power centers".
"Vučić cannot fall until he is written off by the one who holds him, which is the West," Anđelković points out.
Speaking about the "Jadar" project, Dejan Bursać says that in the coming year SNS will look to put out fires and not make any hasty moves that could irritate the public.
"The issue of lithium will depend on how the protest moves." If the protest movement takes place, I do not believe that Vučić will risk opening another front, because we see that SNS is fighting hard on one front as well. There are many cracks, a bunch of ministers have withdrawn and no one is making a statement, because everyone is probably calculating, and Vučić and Prime Minister Miloš Vučević are making statements that are not very tactful, so they have sparked more anger and protest than expected," says Bursać.
Kosovo
Noting that in public opinion polls, Kosovo "has been quite low for years", Bursać assesses that the issue "has not been on the agenda for a long time".
"Kosovo comes to the fore when something happens, it is a strong emotional trigger for a large number of citizens, but it does not mobilize support in the long term, especially since there is no longer a strong political force in society that can attack the regime from a patriotic-national position," says Bursać .
He points out that this is partly a consequence of the fact that the regime very consciously worked for years to divide the right-wing parties, which in the last elections had four lists of which only one passed the census.
"While people are satisfied, they will easily ignore various problems and affairs, and this can be seen in the past ten years, because SNS has a solid socioeconomic situation, certainly much better than before." We have for our conditions relatively high employment, wage growth and investment, so people were willing to feel anything for them. This was also the case with the Democratic Party, which people were willing to do anything to keep quiet, until the world economic crisis hit, and people started losing their jobs and purchasing power," Bursać reminds.
Ognjen Gogić believes that how the Kosovo problem will be solved in 2025 depends a lot on the results of the upcoming elections and the formation of a new government in Kosovo.
He adds that, although Aljbin Kurti is expected to retain power, the question remains whether he will form the government himself or if he will need coalition partners for that.
"An important factor is how the new Trump administration and the new US ambassador to Kosovo will treat Kurti's government, that is, whether Kurti himself will change his behavior due to the arrival of Trump." If Kurti does not change his behavior, it is important whether the Trump administration will tolerate it," says Gogić.
He warns that the recent census in Kosovo showed that in some of the Serbian municipalities there are more Albanians than Serbs, which is the result of the census being very poorly organized, and because there were also changes of residence, "which no one can prohibit." .
"Kurti will undermine Serbian municipalities not only in the north, but also in the south, claiming that they are no longer Serbian municipalities, which is why there is no reason for them to be part of the Community of Serbian Municipalities." Because of this, Serbia will have to find a way to strengthen the power of the Serbs in those municipalities until October 2025, when local elections are held in Kosovo," says Gogić.
Dragomir Anđelković points out that Serbia must stand in the spirit of the Constitution regarding Kosovo.
"If we are fighting to change Vučić's autocracy and his undemocratic system, we cannot do that by trampling on the Constitution." Everything that Vučić accepted, which is against the Constitution, Serbia must reject, which again does not mean that the door should be closed. "Vučić accepted the Franco-German plan, which is unconstitutional, but it is up to the opposition to say how that plan could be corrected to be in the spirit of the Constitution," Anđelković believes.
He points out that this does not mean that the Kosovo crisis will be resolved, but that "we can agree on a model of how to resolve it in the coming period, without tensions and conflicts."
What if the government offers elections in 2025?
Given the overall situation, we could not help but ask our interlocutors what they would do if they were members of the opposition, and the government offered them to hold elections in 2025.
"Although I am a supporter of the fact that with a good and long-term strategy, the SNS can also win the elections, I think that in the current situation this is not the case, because there was no time for a long-term strategy. I think it is clear to everyone that SNS resorts to calling elections when it needs to get out of problems, in crisis situations. Then SNS calls elections, wins, gains legitimacy and pushes as if nothing happened," says Dejan Bursać.
Although he agrees that Vučić is organizing only to consolidate his ranks, Ognjen Gogić says that the elections cannot be rejected and should be accepted.
"If Vucic offers elections, it would be known that it is a Trojan horse, but if I were the opposition leader, I would accept the elections, and with the threat of a boycott, I would try to strengthen my own positions and do as much as possible to improve election conditions," says Gogić.
He adds that it will sound "as if he has discovered hot water" if he says that the biggest problem is uniting the opposition, but he points out that the main problem of the opposition is that it has time for mutual confrontations.
"It shows that the opposition does not think that the regime is so bad, because if they did, they would not waste time on mutual calculations, but would unite against the regime." As long as they have the strength to deal with mutual disputes, they have no chance of threatening the government. I remember the statement of a general, that in a situation when the country is occupied - there is no civil war. It is the same in this case - if there is an undemocratic regime, there is no room for the opposition to be divided," Gogić points out.
If he were an opposition politician and were offered the election, Dragomir Anđelković says that he would request the installation of cameras at all polling stations, "as was done in Bulgaria, where thievery in elections was eradicated."
"Of course, the cameras don't record how people vote, but they record the number of people who went to the polling stations and record the opening of the ballot boxes. We will not have fair elections until cameras are installed according to that model. Another condition would be the pre-election control of the media sphere, because it is not enough to open only a public service, since the regime has a huge number of other media," Anđelković says.
He adds that therefore, following the models from Finland or Singapore, a media election campaign should be established in which each party participating in the elections, both parliamentary and non-parliamentary, would have a certain number of minutes on each media.
"We have to reset the electoral system, to organize elections as if we had never had them before." It is also necessary to control budget funds six months before the elections. "All this is impossible without the prior establishment of an expert, concentration or transitional government that would have a technical mandate to conduct the elections," Anđelković concludes.
