Rebellion and the last days: Where is the lifeline for Vučić hidden

Almost 15 months from Novi Sad canopy falls and the beginning of the biggest and longest anti-government protests protests in Serbia and in this part of the world, the situation is quite clear. Despite "material fatigue", the trend is evident: Vučićeva the government is falling apart at all seams, the decline in popularity and trust continues, and resistance or at least dissatisfaction within many institutions exists even if it is not visible.

The regime is making irrational moves, showing that it has lost touch with reality, which - political theorists will say - is a sign that it is aware that the current trend cannot be stopped.

One affair leads to another, his international credibility is such that world leaders move to the other side of the street when Vučić goes to meet them. It's not just about credibility, it's about the awareness that he is no longer capable of delivering any results, only problems.

Cyclical but constant rebellion

Photo: FoNet/AP

Not only since the fall of the canopy, but from 2016 until today ("We are not drowning Belgrade" and protests against political violence on Vojvodina Radio and Television, and so on), the rebellion in Serbia is cyclical and continuous. It goes quiet, and then it comes back again, more organized, stronger and more numerous. There is no doubt that something like this will happen in the future, because the anger of citizens has not disappeared, but has become inherent.

The government exposed itself to the end, showed its true face, causing odium even among those who until recently had some confidence in it. The long shaking of the tree started to give excellent results for the first time, the rotten fruits are rapidly falling from it.

Consequences of a predatory economy

Photo: Tanjug

To all this, we should add the economic crisis that is shaking Serbia, which is a consequence of the bizarre economic policy that has been conducted for a decade or so, relying solely on impressions (and the looting of state resources) and not on real and sustainable developments. Citizens already feel it very much, it will become more and more visible over time.

At least when it comes to consumer goods, Serbia is at the top dinner the absolute leader in the region. That trend, which is a consequence of the mentioned economic policy based on propaganda and sensations, will continue. Of course, also on "resource redistribution".

Poverty is growing, social stratification has intensified, Serbia looks more like a feudal state than an organized democratic society.

The only response of the authorities is violence

Photo: FoNet/Aleksandar Barda

In short, it is impossible to imagine that any of the citizens who managed to see the true face of the kleptocratic-Shalabeiser regime, which reached deep into his pocket and tried to "reason" him, even if he retreated to the warmth of his home - is ready to restore his trust or at least be indifferent to him. The reverse process is quite possible to imagine, despite the fact that the propaganda machinery of the regime works in three shifts, spending a lot of citizens' money, hidden in various straws.

Violence is the only answer the government can come up with. Her language was completely used up, what remained was a story about safety and danger, foreign and internal enemies. The current world madness certainly suits her. But even if we imagine some more serious turbulence in the region, Vučić would hardly be able to produce the so-called gathering under one banner and with one leader due to tectonic events. His expiration date has expired, just like Milošević, whom NATO intervention she didn't help with that. On the contrary. People do not gather around tragicomic figures whose halo has fallen into the baroness.

Criminal Police Praetorian Guard

Photo: Vreme/Katarina Stevanović

Of course, the regime should not be underestimated. A lot of money was collected, and a praetorian criminal-police guard was created, which will be used to preserve the regime without any scruples. But, even so, it is hard to believe that he is so strong that he can turn Serbia into a Belarus.

All in all, the regime is on the edge of a precipice or, to use a different metaphor, cornered like a snarling, angry fox. It can bite, someone can get hurt, you should not forget that and you should be wise and careful.

The historical responsibility of the anti-Vučić bloc

Photo: FoNet/Marko Dragoslavić

The only one who can save the regime is a broad anti-Vučić bloc if it does not understand that the most important thing is to seize the state from the hands of domestic and international organized crime. And that everything else is secondary.

Therefore, everyone who is on this side of the river, especially those who can make some decisions, have a huge responsibility. There must be no improvisation and restraining passion. You need to stand on the ball and look at the situation on the field, as the famous football player of Sarajevo "Želje" Mehmed Meša Baždarević knew how to do. The regime loses with a convincing result, but counts on own goals with fatigue, passion and songs of a stunned opponent.

Study at UNIRSM have so far shown the ability to make wise decisions, despite numerous mistakes and internal misunderstandings. It is hoped that he will concentrate on the main opponent and stop the war against the opposition, whatever it is. Nobody needs that. I guess it is possible to make some kind of pact on non-aggression and a common goal, and not to inherit progressive propaganda successes against political organization as such. It is stupid and counterproductive to third the regime in the fight against the opposition parties.

On the other hand, the opposition, no matter how much it feels hurt because someone tells it that it should go to the bench for reserve players, should not "punch" the student movement. It's stupid and counterproductive for her.

Traps of detours and moral panics

Let's say, now the current story is that Vučić's opponents should be strongly pro-European. Realistically, to this extent, the opposition remembered it only now. We don't really remember that she pushed the European story strongly before, wrapping herself in European flags, at least not this fiercely. At the time, she also estimated that Vučić could only be removed by a broad ideological bloc.

Now this story suits her because she is preparing to go to the elections on that platform. Of course, no one should think that Serbia, if it wants to build a normal society, has any other path than the European one. In the end, students promote European values, I guess they are aware that there is nothing to do with the rule of law or the fight against corruption, if they turn to the east.

It is a detour if political decisions are made on the basis of hype and moral panics on social networks. There are relevant pollsters and analysts who can suggest the best path for the regime to win. Without passion. Respecting science. And at the right moment. Maybe what is valid now will not be valid in a few months.

Restraining passions

If the research says that everyone should support student list, because this will create a referendum atmosphere, then the opposition parties should also do that. The price is high, but it will be even higher if, for the sake of their particular interests, they enable the survival of the Vučić regime. On the other hand, the student movement must not behave as if it has grabbed the All-Seeing One by the scrotum, as a group of great and sinless righteous people.

Maybe the result will be better if the anti-Vučić block comes out in two or three columns. It is also not something that should be dismissed a priori, and screamed about. But even such a decision should be made as a rational and informed decision, not based on passion.

In the end, you should be aware that it will be easier to defeat the regime in the elections, with all the expected election manipulations, than to rule the post-Vučić state. It will not be easy to inherit a deeply criminalized, de-institutionalized country and a burned-out society.

Vučić's regime will fall, in some realistic future, and its catastrophic consequences will be worse the longer it shakes our lives. Every day counts, because things are rapidly deteriorating.