An attack on the economy and weapons for Ukraine: The historic fall of the ruble and the nuclear threat

On the fifth day since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the conflict between Russia and the West is gaining momentum. During that time, no significant movement of troops on the ground is recognized.

As a consequence exclusion of Russian banks from the Association for International Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) After the opening of the world stock markets on Monday, the ruble experienced a historic decline. On the EBS trading platform, it lost 42 percent of its value: 1 rubles were paid for 119 dollar. Rubles are being sold off at dumping prices on all markets.

Since the Russian Central Bank is practically cut off from Western banks and the world money market, and Russian foreign exchange reserves in the European Union are frozen, the Central Bank has a problem to mitigate the fall of the ruble.

On Monday, the stock exchange in Moscow was opened only at 10 a.m., three hours late. Russian brokers have been ordered not to fulfill orders from foreigners to sell Russian government bonds, writes the German "Spiegel".

In Russia, long queues form in front of banks.

Previously, the West closed its airspace to Russian airlines, but also to the private planes of Russian oligarchs. International matches will not be held in Russia. Russian state media Sputnik and Rasha are banned from working in Western countries today, their content is removed from YouTube and Google. A Russian tugboat was stopped in the English Channel.

The International Judo Federation has stripped Russian President Vladimir Putin of his honorary presidency.

Roman Abramovich resigned as president of FC Chelsea.

Turkey stopped Russian warships in the Black Sea.

In the USA and Canada, alcohol produced in Russia is withdrawn from sale in certain trade chains.

EU weapons for Ukraine

After the USA approved an additional 350 million dollars for military aid to Ukraine, the European Union approved for the first time in history that a country in a war conflict be supplied with European weapons: the EU allocated 500 million euros for this. It is also ironic how quickly 27 members of the Union agreed on such a crucial topic.

It seems that the Kremlin did not count on such a quick, decisive and unique reaction from the West. Based on previous experiences in the military campaign against Ukraine, Putin counted on the basic weakness of democracies compared to autocracies - decisions are made slowly, or not made at all, or by the time they come into force they are diluted, because someone always has something to complain about, it is necessary compromise or consensus, and everyone's opinion must be respected or at least listened to. This is especially true for the EU. But Putin miscalculated in this case.

A noose of punitive economic measures is wrapped around Russia, which has begun to suffocate it in record time.

Miscalculation

It seems that Putin has miscalculated in other strategic issues as well: NATO has no intention of withdrawing from Eastern Europe, on the contrary, it is strengthening its eastern wing. There was even talk in the American media that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, neutral Sweden and Finland are now considering joining NATO.

After decades of wandering in search of the purpose of his existence, Putin did the Western military alliance a favor by attacking Ukraine: NATO can now act as a military power again raunchy which the world protects from evil.

This is supported by the images of the invasion of a European country by the land units of a world power, the images of suffering and destruction, no matter how much they are in the media, hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing to Poland, Romania and Hungary. Those pictures united the West in just a few days and caused an unexpected solidarity with the victim of aggression.

On Sunday, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, even advocated the accelerated admission of Ukraine to the EU, because "they are one of us." In practice, it would not be so easy, but her words suggest the direction of the Union's policy towards Ukraine: they are support for the Ukrainians and a threat to Putin that the EU has no intention of backing down either.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky he reacted immediately and appealed to the EU to accept Ukraine as a member in a special procedure.

One of Russia's ultimate demands is that Ukraine commit to neutrality and demilitarization.

Words that are not spoken

Putin's order to put Russia's nuclear arsenal on alert can be interpreted as a threat and a sign that he has no intention of backing down. In Washington, they are trying to minimize this statement by Putin, but he purposefully reminded the world that, no matter how much it seems at the moment that Russia has run into a wall, it is a nuclear power.

On the front, things don't look much better for the Kremlin either. It is still not clear what Putin wanted to achieve by penetrating fast, mechanized units deep into the territory of Ukraine. There is no information that they achieved anything.

In Russian cities every day thousands of people participate in anti-war demonstrations, despite punitive measures and mass arrests.

Today, on Monday, the first peace negotiations between the warring parties should take place in Belarus, on the border with Ukraine. It is not known to whom the cessation of hostilities would bring greater relief at this moment.

Even if Putin withdraws troops from Ukraine soon, once the world's flywheels are set in one direction, they are difficult to stop, and even more difficult to change direction.

Regardless of the outcome, the largest land military action on European soil since World War II will remain one of the turning points in history.

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