Elections in Montenegro: Entry into the parliament through the big doors

Citizens of Montenegro will vote today in extraordinary elections for the new convocation of the parliament. The right to vote has 542.468 voters who will cast their vote on one of the fifteen electoral lists. 

Certainly the shortest pre-election race in the final itself was marked by an "affair" whose main actor was Milojko Spajić, the leader of the Europe Now Movement (PEZ). After his candidacy for the president of the country was not accepted due to his illegal Montenegrin-Serbian dual citizenship, this time Spajić was linked to the "cryptocurrency king" Do Kwon, who is wanted by Korea and the USA for embezzlement of 40 billion dollars. Kwon was recently arrested in Podgorica with a forged passport.

Spajić did not dispute the meetings with Do Kwon, claiming that it was at a time when there was no Interpol red warrant for him and called him a fraud. Europe has now accused the Prime Minister in technical mandate, Dritan Abazović, of having timed and constructed the entire affair right before the elections. 

It will be difficult to know how much this will really affect the result of PEZ Milojko Spajić and the President of Montenegro Jakov Milatović, considering that they have not participated in the parliamentary elections so far. Also, it will be difficult to assess whether Dritan Abazović profited from this story. However, at the end of this day, it will be seen whether this political manipulation has broken the trends observed by public opinion surveys.

"Building" popularity

"Alexa and Dritan - It's brave to count" is a list that no one could have even imagined just a few months ago. Not only because of the serious dispute between the leader of the URA Civic Movement and the first man of the Democrats of Montenegro, but also because of the fact that the Democrats participated in the overthrow of the minority government of Dritan Abazović. 

Photo: AP Photo/Risto Bozović

The Democrats and URA once offered PEZ a pre-election agreement that would result in a strong coalition of the center, but it was quite logical that the party, which has been on the rise for almost a year, with no negative parliamentary experience and only a short personal influence in the executive power, agreed to, on the one hand, it relaxes the political minuses of potential partners, and on the other hand, it obscures the election result and confirms its full strength.  

Abazović, the prime minister whose government was voted no-confidence almost ten months ago, managed to "increase" his popularity with the results he delivered in the fight against crime and corruption, but the question is how much personal rating will affect the result of the list he carries together with Aleks Bečić. especially since their target population overlaps to a significant extent. It is also interesting that several names from the "Black on White" coalition list, which Abazović led in the previous parliamentary elections, ended up on the PEZ electoral list this time.

Who else is in the running?

Representatives of the United Montenegro, the Party of Rights and Reconciliation, CIVIS, as well as several lists that already continuously participate in local community assemblies, were on the Europe Now electoral list. There are all forecasts that they will represent the dominant political entity in the new Montenegrin parliament. The cross-section of all the results will reveal how much of the cake was shared by other political actors, both the government and the opposition, which generated the dominant feeling of Montenegrin public opinion - disappointment. 

Immediately before the elections, after more than a decade, the Democratic Front ceased to exist. Nebojša Medojević's Movement for Change, created as a citizen-oriented political group, has almost completely merged into the Serbian corpus of political parties led by Andrija Mandić and Milan Knežević, and has little chance of passing the census. 

Of course, Medojević, who stands out as the creator of various conspiracy theories and a man who created the image of a good connoisseur of criminal structures with good connections in the abyssal sector, certainly has his followers, but the big question is whether their number is sufficient to return him to the parliament from which he at one time he resigned from the post of deputy.

The rest of the Democratic Front was on the list with the same name as in the previous elections in 2020 - For the Future of Montenegro, and it consists of the New Serbian Democracy, the Democratic People's Party of Montenegro and the Workers' Party. 

The recent performance of the list's holder, Milan Knežević, at Vučić's "counter-meeting" in Belgrade clearly profiled this list as strongly nationally oriented, firmly tied to the ruling political group in Serbia. In any case, it is a big sign of Piranha's repetition of the success of the previous election, when she received the votes of 32,55 percent of the voters.

Populism towards voters

Although its until recently leader Milo Đukanović joined the campaign of the most powerful parliamentary party, the Democratic Party of Socialists, at the last moment, their campaign was of low intensity with dominant populist elements. 

In fact, extremely populist messages are characteristic of almost all 15 lists participating in these elections. Acting DPS president Danijel Živković left a largely anemic impression, with a controlled identity performance. It could also be called an attempt to reconcile political messages with the real position of the party, which is experiencing a continuous decline in popularity. The DPS is running in a coalition with the Social Democrats (SD), the Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA) and the Liberal Alliance.

Photo: AP Photo/Risto Bozović

The participation of minority parties in the future parliament is hardly disputed, although it should be remembered that the Croatian party HGI did not pass the census in the last election. Recent surveys have shown that the Bosniak Party has a noticeable increase in ratings. Also, connoisseurs of the Montenegrin situation believe that the coalition of the Socialist People's Party and Lekić's DEMOS will succeed in passing the census, just as the Social Democratic Party, whose until recently leader Raško Konjević announced that he was leaving politics, is on the verge of entering the parliament.

Census

Another figure from Zdravko Krivokapić's government, former Minister of Justice Vladimir Leposavić, is participating in these elections as the holder of a list entitled - Justice for All. And "People's coalition - full stop" is a list that brought together Dejan Vukšić's Democratic Christian Movement, Marko Milačić's Prava Crna Gora, Vladislav Dajković's Free Montenegro, the Democratic Serbian Party and the Movement for Pljevlja. List "Yes. We can for a civil Montenegro" is led by Dr. Dragica Perović Ivanović, and Turnaround for a safe Montenegro is led by Srđan Perić. Passing the census of any of these lists would be a real surprise, although according to some estimates, the "Urokret" movement has the best chances. 

In any case, this number of lists increases the importance of Dont's formula and can affect the position of the parties that achieve the best results in the elections.

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