Photo: (AP Photo/Emilio MorenattiThe number of Ukrainian refugees will soon exceed 2 million. Humanitarian corridors through which civilians could safely evacuate cities under siege are being negotiated. It seems that the ground is being prepared for the second act of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in which combat operations will intensify
On the twelfth day since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one gets the impression that the stage is being set for the second act of tragedy.
There are intensive negotiations on a ceasefire and humanitarian corridors for the safe evacuation of civilians in many cities. The warring parties accuse each other of violating the truce.
The image that marked today and symbolizes the situation throughout the country comes from the town of Irpin near Kyiv. First, the camera recorded the rocket hitting the place where the civilians were supposed to gather and head west. Then a New York Times photographer took a picture of the lifeless bodies of a mother with two children in the same place. Ukrainian officials say that 8 civilians were killed in that attack, they claim that the Russians are deliberately targeting civilians and by creating fear and insecurity they want to break the resistance of the Ukrainians.
The wartime government in Kiev is demanding that a lawsuit be filed against Russia for war crimes before the International Court of Justice.
Similar pictures come from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv. The Black Sea city of Mariupol has been under siege for days. Over 400.000 inhabitants are without electricity, heating and water. Officials are talking about a humanitarian crisis. Several cease-fires collapsed amid mutual accusations.
Ukrainian officials warn that Vladimir Putin is preparing the ground for the capture of Mariupol and Odessa and establishing a land corridor which would join annexed Crimea and the breakaway, self-proclaimed Russian republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in the east of the country.
There is talk that the Donbass scenario could be repeated in Moldova, where Russians also live in autonomous Transnistria. Russian troops have long been stationed in Transnistria. Moldova is one of the poorest European countries, where tens of thousands of refugees from Ukraine are also arriving.
Reporters from several world media report that the tension and anxiety of the local population are growing in Kyiv. The train station in the center of the city is besieged by a growing number of people, mostly women and children, who are trying in every way to board all the trains going in the direction of Laviv in the west of the country, which is still safe.
The UN is talking about to the "fastest growing" refugee crisis in Europe since World War II. On Monday, over 1,7 million refugees crossed the Ukrainian borders. Most of them, about a million, are located in Poland.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, calls on Ukrainians throughout the country to join the fight against the "Russian occupiers" with undiminished ferocity. He mentions heavy losses on the Russian side, and that Ukrainians are ready to pay any price for freedom. It is still assumed that one of the goals of the invasion is the capture of Kiev and the establishment of a pro-Russian government. There is no indication that the Kremlin may halt its military offensive in Ukraine.
Various retired generals and security experts on CNN and the BBC warn that a city fight would require a large number of casualties on the Russian side as well, and that the defender of the city has a 10:1 advantage over the attacker.
One of the NATO officials stated that the Ukrainian army received 17.000 anti-tank launchers and 2000 of the most modern stingers that can target fighter planes and helicopters. It is said that long before the outbreak of the conflict, Western instructors were training members of the Ukrainian army how to handle them.
Zelensky is asking NATO to make old Polish MiGs available to the Ukrainian Air Force. The Polish government said it is not that simple.
A message arrives from Moscow that a country that makes its airports available for military action against the Russian army will be considered to have entered into a war against Russia.
Earlier, Vladimir Putin stated that Western sanctions against Russia are "equivalent to a declaration of war". Putin still hasn't made a statement about whether mass arming of the Ukrainian regular army, territorial defense and paramilitary formations is equivalent to a declaration of war against Russia.
While the hostilities are gaining momentum, Russian oil and gas continue to flow unhindered through Ukraine to Western Europe. Energy prices are heading towards historic records.
JH
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