There is every chance that Donald Trump will run for president at the end of the year. He will not be hindered by numerous court proceedings
The number of coronavirus infections is increasing, the best-selling album of the year was released by Taylor Swift, it seems that the election race of presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump is ahead.
Sounds like the year 2020. But that is the current situation in the United States.
Although the Republicans have not yet decided who will represent them in the presidential elections at the end of the year, it is increasingly likely that it will be Donald Trump again, writes Deutsche says.
The former American president spent one term in the White House, and nowhere in the Constitution does it say that two permitted terms must follow one another.
According to public opinion polls, Trump has a big advantage over other Republican candidates, such as Florida Governor Ron Desantis or former South Carolina Governor and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Donald Trump is so far the only American president against whom impeachment proceedings have been initiated twice. In both cases, the House of Representatives initiated proceedings, but both times the Senate acquitted him.
Without the conviction of the Senate, there are no obstacles to the candidacy for the presidency. But Trump still has a number of legal problems to deal with in an election year.
Among the legal proceedings that will be opened against Trump in 2024 are civil proceedings. In addition, multiple lawsuits against the former president are related to his behavior after losing the 2020 US election. Trump and 18 other people are accused of trying to influence the 2020 election results.
Regardless of the outcome of all these court processes, Trump's re-candidacy in the presidential elections is unlikely to be in jeopardy.
"There are arguments both for and against running for president against someone who is under trial," said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis.
"But the arguments are based on morality, judgment, and preferences, not on actual laws or legal barriers."
Although Colorado and Maine have already challenged Trump's right to run, citing the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution, written after the Civil War. It states that whoever leads a rebellion against the state can no longer hold a high office. This refers to the invasion of the Capitol by Trump supporters in early 2021.
Only the US Supreme Court can say the final word on that. He could decide that jurisdiction over the Fourteenth Amendment rests with Congress—where Trump has already been exonerated—or even if Trump still enjoyed presidential immunity.
Legally speaking, it seems that the proceedings against Trump cannot harm his ambitions to become president. But how do they affect his voters?
Undecided voters "could be deterred by the rulings against Trump," said Christopher Federico, a professor of political science and political psychology at the University of Minnesota. But, "I don't believe any ruling will hurt him with his loyal base in the Republican Party."
And Federico's colleague Howard Levin, also a professor of political science and political psychology, believes that lawsuits against Trump will not only not harm the reputation of his supporters, but the opposite will happen.
"Every lawsuit seems to raise Trump's potential vote share," Levine told DW. "He presented it to his voters like this: 'They are trying to take revenge on me, and they are indirectly taking revenge on you.'"
Both Federico and Levin believe that Trump has a good intuition for how best to appeal to his voters - primarily white men without college degrees and conservative men of African or Latin American descent.
He presents himself as an outsider, as they are, and sends a message that he understands their anger and fear of being left in the lurch by the elites in Washington.
Social developments in gender issues and increased efforts for greater equality and inclusion have further heightened this fear, says Levin.
"It is no longer better to be heterosexual than something else, a man no longer has the status he once had, the share of whites in the population is decreasing, soon the USA will be a country where Christians are a minority," Levine enumerates.
"It threatens the dominant position of white Christian men." Many people feel that their social status is declining. And Trump seems to be able to put those fears in the spotlight," says Levin.
His main supporters, so say both experts, want to be represented and seen, and they believe that Trump will fight for it, to return to its former glory - "to make America great again". Possible court sentences do not play any role for them, they say.
"I don't believe that Trump's supporters will turn their backs on him," says Wilson. "They remain firm and loyal." And if they don't support Trump personally, they support the myth that he represents."
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A black picture and the breakdown of the rule of law subscribeThe archive of the weekly Vreme includes all our digital editions, since the very beginning of our work. All issues can be downloaded in PDF format, by purchasing the digital edition, or you can read all available texts from the selected issue.
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