Although the eyes of the world public were focused on the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, China did not fulfill one of the key Russian expectations.
Annual visit Vladimir Putin China is among the rare trips abroad, during the five years since the beginning of the comprehensive war Russia against Ukraine. This time, the Russian president arrived with a particularly large delegation.
Nevertheless, the world media focused on his meeting with the Chinese president Xi Jinping, especially since US President Donald Trump visited Beijing just a few days earlier.
What are the most important outcomes of the meeting? Experts that is interviewed by DW they do not see significant changes in bilateral relations. And China has failed to meet one of Russia's key expectations.
"On the one hand, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin emphasized strategic partnership and boundless friendship at the summit and signed more than twenty cooperation agreements, among other things in the field of artificial intelligence and energy. But the main Russian expectation - the conclusion of the 'Power of Siberia 2' gas pipeline project, was not realized again," says Seren Urbanski, professor of Eastern European history at the Ruhr University in Bochum.
He notes that Russia has been conducting negotiations on that project for a long time and that China clearly has a stronger negotiating position. After the visit, Russian representatives stated that they are close to an agreement, but that the details have not yet been agreed upon.
The "Power of Siberia 2" project foresees the delivery of up to 50 million cubic meters of gas per year via a 4.000-kilometer long gas pipeline from Western Siberia through Mongolia to China.
The planned capacity is comparable to the Nord Stream gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, whose work Russia itself suspended before the invasion of Ukraine. In the fall of 2022, the pipeline was destroyed in what is suspected to be Ukrainian sabotage.
The "Power of Siberia" project was launched in 2019. Through the already existing first gas pipeline, gas from Eastern Siberia is already reaching China.
"The price of gas and the terms of the contract remain contentious issues. China clearly has a stronger negotiating position here," says Urbanski about the Power of Siberia 2 project. He adds that the interruption of energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz due to the American-Israeli war against Iran has not significantly changed the balance of power.
James Brown, a lecturer at the American Temple University in Tokyo, agrees with this. He believes that the problems in the Strait of Hormuz are only temporary and that the new gas pipeline could probably be put into operation only at the end of the decade.
"I think the Chinese would be unreasonable if, due to the current situation, they rush into an agreement that would tie them to Russian energy supplies for years," says the expert.
This example shows that despite the demonstrative closeness of Moscow and Beijing, "for such important topics as the energy agreement, strictly national interests play a decisive role and that the Chinese are not ready to make concessions to the Russians," Brown believes.
Brown emphasizes that during the meeting, the sharp rhetoric of both statesmen towards the USA caught the eye.
Since Trump visited Beijing before Putin, it might have been expected that the Chinese side would take a more moderate tone, but the opposite happened, says Brown. Although the criticism of the USA was not directly formulated in the joint statement, there is still "progress", according to the expert.
Brown recalls that Putin and Xi declared against "one-sided hegemony" in the world, and that the Russian president quoted Mao Zedong's words about "American imperialism."
Europe is now discussing what consequences the meeting between Putin and Xi could have for the Russian war against Ukraine.
Western experts describe China's position as "pro-Russian neutrality". Formally, China is on the sidelines of the conflict, but in fact it supports Moscow by buying Russian energy products and delivering dual-purpose goods, which can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Experts believe that this will not change.
"China will continue to indirectly support Russia's position on the international stage, even though it presents itself as a neutral mediator," says Seren Urbansky. "Actually, China, by importing raw materials and exporting semiconductors and other dual-use goods, fills the Russian war coffers and enables the continuation of the war."
On the other hand, the expert believes that China is right when he claims that Russia would have won long ago if Beijing had really supported it in full capacity. "Support is not maximum, but China could suspend it. Then Russia's position in the current war against Ukraine would be much more uncertain," says the expert, who does not expect a quick peace.
James Brown notes that China "seems quite content with the status quo, in which Russia neither wins nor loses." However, if Russia were to face defeat, it could, in his opinion, lead China to "broaden its support and move from that kind of pro-Russian neutrality to a stance that more directly supports the Russian war effort," the expert says.
If the situation for Russia worsens, China could openly side with Moscow, according to the political scientist from Tokyo.
What do people in Kiev think about the outcome of the visit? Russia's dependence on China is growing, according to Ukrainian Asia expert Natalia Plaksienko-Butyrska. She believes that the negotiations behind closed doors were crucial. Their result will soon be seen through Russia's further moves.
"Escalation would mean Putin continuing the war against Ukraine. I'm more than sure that's exactly what will happen," she says.
Plaksienko-Butyrska does not expect China to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. "Only when Moscow itself, under the pressure of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, among other things, is ready for it, only then will China become more actively involved in diplomacy to help Russia in the negotiation process."
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