NATO "can't be an 'a la carte' military alliance, it can't be a military alliance that functions depending on the mood of the US president," Josep Borrell, high representative of the European Union for foreign policy and security, told reporters in Brussels. That was his response to Donald Trump's recent comments about NATO, he writes Deutsche says.
On Saturday, at a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump told the crowd that, as president, he warned NATO allies that he would "encourage" Russia to "do whatever it wants" to countries that did not "pay their bills." His statement caused anxiety across Europe in NATO members, who are already worried about the possibility of Donald Trump becoming the president of the United States of America again.
"Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines our security, including that of the United States, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded in a statement on Sunday.
NATO grapples with Trump's threats
As president, Trump has threatened many times to withdraw from NATO. He has warned that he will make the Europeans pay for American protection and has repeatedly questioned the US's commitment to the very core of the alliance - the pledge contained in Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty which stipulates that "an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack on everything".
Diplomats described as "worrying" the fact that he is doing it again - attacking the "soul of the alliance", as some in NATO see it - this time in the election campaign. After all, many allies fear that a second term could represent a more unflinching and much bolder Trump than his first term.
"The last time Trump was in office, it was the biggest upheaval in relations between Europe and the US since the EU existed," Alison Woodward, a senior associate at the Institute for European Studies in Brussels, told DW. "It was really a very dramatic change," she added. "So I think leaders are now preparing for what could happen if Donald Trump is re-elected."
During Trump's first term, the US imposed punitive tariffs on trade with EU members, which noticeably chilled transatlantic relations.
Critical time for NATO
Trump's recent statements come at a very critical time for the Alliance, with some allies openly warning of a potential escalation of the war in Ukraine, while a new package of US aid to Kiev is stalled in Congress, and Europe is struggling to increase arms production.
Trump's comments "increase the likelihood that Russia will test NATO, especially if Donald Trump wins the election, but maybe not only then," said Michal Baranovsky, director general of the German Marshall Fund for the East, an American think tank. Those "comments made Europe less safe," he told DW, adding that Trump "raised the question in the minds of many leaders, including those on NATO's eastern flank, whether the U.S. would stand by all allies in the event of an attack on one of them".
The same concerns are expressed by diplomats in Brussels, who privately say that Trump's comments have already damaged the Alliance. The biggest problem seems to be that his claims are hard to dispute. Trump's statement to NATO allies that they are "not paying their bills" is wrong since, technically speaking, there is no such thing as a bill that has not been paid.
Trump's comments a wake-up call?
Trump's comment referred to the fact that a significant number of NATO member states still spend less than two percent of their GDP on defense - even though that level of spending was agreed at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales.
Germany is expected to meet the target for the first time since the end of the Cold War this year, largely thanks to a special fund of 2022 billion euros, created in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in XNUMX. But further funding is far from guaranteed.
That is why diplomats and experts in Brussels agree that Trump is indeed right when it comes to the urgent need for Europeans to invest more in their collective defense. "I think what the presidential candidate said in America will wake up some of the allies who haven't done much," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas told reporters during a visit to Brussels.
European emergency plan
Governments across the continent seem to understand that European allies must do more for their defense, regardless of who the next US president is. Those efforts are at the heart of plans European allies are working on behind the scenes, focusing on improved military capabilities and a more unified strategic approach.
However, they have a long way to go, Bart Keremans, a professor at the Center for Global Governance Studies in Leuven, told DW. "The perspective of the second Trump presidency gives a strong impetus to the improvement of European cooperation and integration in terms of defense and security", believes Keremans, emphasizing that it is not only about Donald Trump. "If you want to reduce the likelihood that the US will withdraw from NATO under Trump, you have to do something about the redistribution of burdens." Besides, regardless of Trump, if Europe wants to play an important role in the world, it will have to invest more in defense, because the world is becoming less and less safe."
