Friedrich Mertz, the leader German Christian Democrat and the winner of the February elections, he said - it will be until Easter. And it was until Easter.
On Wednesday (April 9), the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats presented a coalition agreement for the next government. Mertz, an old-fashioned conservative, millionaire and former employee of the investment fund Blackrock, finally enters the Chancellor's office.
The basis of the deal with the Social Democrats, who experienced a historic fiasco in the elections, is money. A lot of money. Germany will borrow about a trillion (thousand billion!) to invest in infrastructure and military power.
"We have before us a powerful plan with which we can jointly move our country forward," said Mertz at the presentation of the agreement. "Germany will have a government capable of taking action."
There was no other mathematics than the cooperation of the two once great traditional parties. Such was the voter's will, which made the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) the second strongest party, and the opposition Left also did well.
Big frogs
Both the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats had to swallow a few frogs and break more than a few pre-election promises.
So Mertz agreed to the heavy borrowing of the country, even though he insisted on budget zero during the campaign. The Social Democrats, on the other hand, will have to agree to a tougher migration policy.
"The coalition has decided on a soft neoliberal reform bill that will be covered by extensive state grants," the weekly Zeit assesses. "It is a compromise on which the agreement of the two parties was possible. Considering the situation in the country and abroad, it is not the worst possible compromise."
An agreement was reached on the distribution of ministries among the parties. The Social Democrats get as many as seven, including the important Ministries of Finance and Defense.
Six portfolios have been reserved for Christian Democrats, in addition to two positions in the chancellor's cabinet: the future chancellor will be assisted by the head of the cabinet, who will have the rank of federal minister. In addition, the CDU will take over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the first time in almost 60 years.
Their sister Bavarian CSU gets three ministries, one of which will be the Ministry of the Interior.
World madness
The coalition will face even greater domestic and global chaos than the one that reigned before the elections.
Mertz is taking the reins as US President Donald Trump goes crazy with tariffs, which is particularly affecting Germany's struggling and export-oriented economy. It is already being calculated how much economic decline will be caused by the customs war.
At the same time, there is more and more open talk about the fact that Germany must prepare for an open war with Russia - just in case.
The first man of the army (Chief of the General Staff) Carsten Breuer says that Germany is not at war, but not at peace with Russia, but that it is an intermediate state.
In an interview with Deutsche Welle, he stated that Russia overhauls or produces 1.500 tanks a year and four million pieces of artillery ammunition, and that it does not go to the front but to depots. The Russians are planning to raise the number of soldiers to one and a half million.
"If we connect all that with Putin's intentions, which we can derive from his speeches and video messages (...) it clearly tells me that 2029 is the time when the increase in material and manpower will be so great that an attack on NATO territory will be possible," warns Breuer.
His message – Germany must prepare. "Our calculations say we need to reach 460.000 soldiers, including reservists and active soldiers," he says. "That potential for growth must be secured through some form of military service, be it mandatory or voluntary."
The AfD is getting stronger.
Mertz, like his predecessors, will have to be a crisis chancellor. His internal party rival, Angela Merkel, spent sixteen long years at the head of the country, and then crises just kept coming - financial, debt, refugee, Brexit, pandemic.
Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, one of the most infamous chancellors in history, was greeted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and then other wars and the return of Donald Trump to the White House were added.
It looks like Merc is in for more trouble. All the more so since she does not have the credit or reputation of the German "Mutti", the mother, as they affectionately called Angela Merkel. She enjoyed immense confidence that she could lead Germany through all crises.
Admittedly, during her time, the AfD came to its senses, with a radical discourse against migrants, NATO and "political elites".
Merc has neither credit nor time. The latest polls show that the AfD has tied with his Christian Democrats at around 24-26 percent support.
It has often been said that Mertz has four years to restore the people's trust in democracy and established parties. Otherwise, next time maybe the math will be such that you can't do without the AfD.
But a lot is out of Mertz's hands and depends on external circumstances. From this perspective, it seems that the good news would be if the mandate ends without a major war and halting the decline in citizens' living standards.
