According to Vatican watchers and bookies, the strongest odds have Luis Antonio Tagle, Pietro Parolin, Peter Turkson, Peter Erdo and Angelo Scola
Heir of the deceased Pope Francis will face the Church shaped by Francis' appointments and reforms. His tenure led to major structural changes, including the decentralization of power Vatican and appointing more non-European cardinals than any of his predecessors. Therefore, it is very uncertain who will be the new pope.
A key issue for the conclave will be Francis' handling of sexual abuse cases, which has divided church leaders.
"Most importantly, can voters trust that the person they elect is not a sexual predator who could be exposed?" said Ulrich Lehner, professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame, according to Newsweek.
According to Michelle Dillon, dean of the College of Liberal Arts at the University of New Hampshire, "Francis has consistently tried to bring much greater transparency and professionalism to the Curia."
Yet Dillon also noted that some cardinals remain skeptical of his openness to secular engagement, fearing the Church could lose its unique identity.
Who are the leading candidates?
As speculation mounts, several high-ranking cardinals have emerged among the top contenders.
According to Vatican observers and bookmakers, Luis Antonio Tagle, Pietro Parolin, Peter Turkson, Peter Erdo and Angelo Scola have the strongest odds.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
The current favorite at odds of 3:1, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, is considered a strong candidate to continue Pope Francis' progressive agenda. Tagle, an advocate of inclusion and evangelization, has significant experience in leading the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and was a trusted figure in Francis's inner circle.
Tagle's Asian heritage also makes him a compelling choice, as Catholicism is growing rapidly on the continent, especially in the Philippines.
Pietro Parolin (Italy)
With odds of 4:1, Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70) is one of the most experienced Vatican officials. In his role as Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, he has played a major role in diplomatic affairs, including sensitive negotiations with China and Middle Eastern governments.
Parolin is seen as a moderate theological candidate, someone who could provide stability while still maintaining some of Francis' reforms. His deep ties to the Vatican bureaucracy make him a strong candidate for those pushing for continuity.
Peter Turkson (Ghana)
With current odds of 5:1, Cardinal Peter Turkson (76) is a well-known figure in Church circles. As former head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, Turkson has been vocal on issues such as climate change, poverty and economic justice.
Turkson's election would mark a historic moment for the first African pope in centuries. The last Roman pontiff of African origin was Pope Gelasius, who served from 492 to 496. Born in Rome to African parents, Gelasius was known for his voluminous theological writings and his strong advocacy of charity and justice for the poor.
Peter Erdo (Hungary)
The leading conservative candidate, Cardinal Peter Erdo (72), currently has odds of 6:1. A respected scholar of canon law, Erdo is a strong advocate of traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. He previously served as head of the Council of European Bishops' Conferences and emphasized theological orthodoxy.
For those seeking a return to the conservatism of John Paul II and Benedict XVI, Erdo would represent a major departure from Francis' approach.
Angelo Scola (Italy)
With odds of 8:1, Cardinal Angelo Scola (82) is a long-term candidate for the pope. He was among the favorites in the 2013 conclave that eventually elected Pope Francis. Scola, a former archbishop of Milan, has deep theological roots and appeals to those who support a more centralized and hierarchical Church.
His traditionalist stance makes him a strong candidate for those who want to break away from Francis' reforms, but his age could work against him.
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