How can the Catholic Church not deviate from Francis' path

On Wednesday, May 6, the conclave that will elect the pope begins. Experts think that the course of the deceased Pope Francis to be continued.

It is a conclave of superlatives. Several cardinals will participate in it Catholic church than in any previous election of a new pope. They will move into the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican. 133 cardinals are expected to participate, writes Deutsche Welle.

This involves deliberations behind closed doors and staying in modest chambers - until the two-thirds majority needed to elect a new church leader is reached.

Another record will be achieved as cardinals come from 71 countries. At the last election of the new pope in 2013, 48 countries were represented, and at those in 2005, 52 countries were represented.

Pope Francis, who died on Easter Monday at the age of 88, worked for twelve years to make the Catholic Church, with its current 1,4 billion members, a global church and to end its concentration on Europe.

But what does this mean for the deliberations currently taking place in the so-called pre-conclave and for the coming days in the Sistine Chapel? "The outcome of the election today is more difficult to predict because the composition of the College of Cardinals is more nationally and culturally diverse," historian Jörg Ernesti, an expert on the Vatican, told DW.

Names, bets, speculations

Despite this, on the day of Pope Francis' death, many media outlets asked the question: "Who will be next?" Various names quickly appeared in circulation. The stakes at the bookmakers are growing, the speculation is increasing.

French Catholic daily Lacroix, which is not owned by the French bishops' conference, posted on social media: "Why Lacroix does not talk about 'candidates' who could succeed Pope Francis."

The publication points out that every cardinal is suitable for this, and that "the debate about favorites is a sport of the Vaticanists", the papal reporters. Nevertheless, the paper presented those it considers the most important cardinals from Asia or Africa and stated the criteria.

Church historian Ernesti believes that the fact that about 80 percent of the cardinals with the right to vote appointed Francis is not decisive. The outcome, he believes, is still uncertain.

There are "too many good candidates being considered for the job." He believes that the fundamental meaning is that "the reforms started by Francis continue". He sees no indication "that there is a desire for a turnaround."

There are many criteria for selection.

How complex is the election of the pope, how different are the candidates? Does the candidate have more experience in pastoral work or church management? Does it come from a developed country or a developing country? What is his theological orientation? How does one declare the attitude of the Church towards homosexuals?

Most cardinals today come from other parts of the world and no longer from Europe, explains Ernesti. General congregations, in which cardinals younger than 80, but also older ones participate, are considered a suitable place for them to get to know each other. Because: the conclave itself is "quite ritualized and certainly does not represent a parliamentary exchange as in politics".

It is observed that, a day or two after Francis' death, the more prominent cardinals, who could influence the election, expressed their opinion. Among them were Luxembourg Archbishop Jean-Claude Hellerich (66) and Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle (67), who heads one of the Vatican services, as well as some others. As of last weekend, they no longer advertise.

Experienced advocates continue Franja's course

But that's why the older cardinals are now vigorously declaring. For some of them, it surprises or irritates that they appear in public again, which Pope Francis did not want.

Thus, according to the online portal Crooks, the Peruvian Cardinal Juan Luis Cipriani (81) - who was punished for sexual abuse in 2019 - managed to enter the meeting room of the pre-conclave.

American Cardinal Roger Mahoney (88), who was previously accused of covering up sexual offenses in the Church, was also found next to the Pope's casket, which were allegedly silenced with millions of dollars.

Viennese Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (80) and German Cardinal Emeritus Walter Kasper (92), two highly respected actors of the last conclave, have been making a clear statement lately. They insist on the continuation of Francis' course, which, they say, cannot be stopped. It will be, Kasper warned, a longer conclave.

But what does longer mean? The last time, in 2013, the conclave lasted 27 hours, and in 2005, only 26 hours. However, the longest conclave in the 20th century, the one from 1903, lasted a total of five days. There was no pre-conclave then. So, you have to wait.

On Polimarket, one of the online betting sites that focus on the conclave, the best chances are currently given that the white smoke from the Sistine Chapel will come out on May 9. But I guess the Cardinals are not betting there.