Photo: Jonathan Brady/PA via APProtest in front of the Iranian Embassy in London: Bets are flourishing on the outcome and victims of the American-Israeli attack on Iran
Someone on a prediction and betting platform made $515.000 by betting that 71 minutes before the start of airstrikes on Iran, they would happen
American-Israeli military strikes on Iran have drawn enormous attention to the prediction markets, and traders have profited from a bet posted before news of the attack became public.
In the hours leading up to the attack, users of prediction platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, placed bets on both the timing of a potential military strike and the political fate of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Photo: PrintskrinOne of the predictions on the Polimarket platform
After the attack was announced, one trader reportedly made more than half a million dollars in one day betting on when it would happen, the report said. Newsweek.
"Polymarket appears to be an account named 'Magamyman' made $515.000 in one day betting on last night American attack on Iran, and the first trade was made 71 minutes before the news broke," wrote US Democratic Rep. Mike Levin on March 1.
It appears that a Polymarket account called "Magamyman" made $515,000 in a single day betting on last night's US strike on Iran, with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly.
On Thursday, March 5, the aforementioned prediction platforms continue to closely monitor the situation in Iran and present their predictions regarding various possible scenarios related to that conflict.
Thus, both Polimarket and Kalshi give priority to the successor of the murdered Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to his son Mojtaba. Polymarket claims that Mojtaba Khamenei has a 66 percent chance of becoming Iran's new spiritual leader, while that percentage is slightly lower for Kalshi - 60 percent.
The same is the case with the question of whether Reza Pahlavi will lead Iran by the end of this year - both platforms give him modest chances for that: Polimarket predicts that the chances are 18 percent, and Kalshi a higher percentage.
Photo: AP Photo/Hassan AmmarWho will succeed the murdered Ayatollah Khamenei?
The Kalshi platform gives the same percentage of possibility that Iran will get a democratic government this year, while Polimarket predicts that the chances of the Iranian regime falling before the beginning of 2027 are 52 percent.
When it comes to closing the strategically extremely important point, the Strait of Hormuz, Polimarket predicts that the chances of it happening by the end of 2026 are as high as 86 percent.
According to Polymarket's prediction, the chances that the USA and Iran will reach a nuclear agreement by June 30 are 33 percent, while Kalshi predicts that the chances of that agreement being reached before August are 36 percent.
Suspected insiders
A surge in bets on the prediction market linked to military action in Iran and windfall profits made by those with well-timed bets have resulted in scrutiny of both traders' orders and the platforms themselves, Newsweek reports.
About 529 million dollars were invested in a set of contracts on Polymarket related to when the US-Israeli strikes in Iran will begin, and on Saturday, February 28, by far the largest volume of stakes was recorded, totaling 89,6 million dollars. According to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, six accounts managed to earn $1,2 million, including one that joined the platform in February, never bet on any other topic, and earned half a million dollars.
Photo: AP Photo/Vahid SalemiConsequences of the bombing
These "suspected insiders," as Bubblemaps calls them, had little prior history of such large bets and entered their positions only "hours before the strike."
While the US has been signaling possible military action for weeks, attracting thousands of bets totaling hundreds of millions of dollars - the timing and volume of certain bets has fueled criticism of the relatively lax regulations governing prediction markets like Polymarket.
Insider trading on the platform led to the arrest of two Israelis in early February, and legislative pressure is mounting in the US for greater oversight, especially when it comes to bets involving military action and death.
Nicholas Wyman, co-founder and CEO of Bubblemaps, told Newsweek that while there was no way to know for sure that these accounts benefited from insider knowledge, the firm's algorithm-based anomaly detection methods flagged several reasons for suspicion.
"In this case, those Polymarket accounts had no prior activity and were only betting on a US attack on Iran on February 28, the day before the attack," Wyman said.
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