Is Orban losing power?

In almost every speech, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán spreads panic about moral decline and at the same time acts as the savior of the nation. For example, in his worldview, migrants are potential terrorists and rapists, Roma are potentially unfit for work, and homosexuals are potential child abusers. Orban sees Hungary with him as a bulwark against left-liberal Europe that allegedly wants to destroy the traditional family, the Christian faith and the national state, he writes. Deutsche says.

Given the ferocity with which Orbán establishes a set of values ​​for his country, cases of double standards in his personal environment or in his Fidesz party become more and more embarrassing and serious. There have been several such in recent years.

For example, the case of Orbán's longtime associate Jozef Sayer, who was considered a family man, a heterosexual. Sayer is also one of the authors of the Christian-conservative, homophobic constitution of Hungary from 2011. And it was like that until at the end of 2020, he was caught at a sex party in Brussels where there were about 20 men, and where, in addition to sex, there were also drugs. After that, he resigned from all positions and left the Fidesz party.

Now a similar case of double standards is shaking the Hungarian public - and shaking Orbán's order as well, because it points to the dubious methods and mechanisms by which it operates. It is about sexual abuse of minors and child protection - a topic that has become the most important propaganda motive of Orbán and his government in recent years.

Whenever he mentions homosexuality, the Hungarian Prime Minister adds "and child abuse" in the same breath. He utters sentences like: "Hungary is a tolerant, patient country when it comes to homosexuality, but there is a red line: they should leave our children alone." In Hungary, the so-called "child protection law" that prohibits "LGBTQ-propaganda" against minors. In the state media, domestic and foreign critics of Orbán's system have repeatedly been accused of advocating the "legalization of child abuse" or of being "pedophiles" themselves.

A pardon that outraged the public

In the background of this constant propaganda noise, it was recently learned that President Katalin Novak - who is unconditionally loyal to Orban and is also the former minister for the family - last year pardoned a man convicted of aiding and abetting the concealment of sexual crimes against minors. The seriousness of the case is explained by its details: a man named Andre K. tried to persuade the children, who were systematically sexually abused by his superior, the director of a home for neglected children - not to testify. One of the abused children had previously taken his own life.

The pardon angered the Hungarian public so much that the president announced her resignation last Saturday, February 10, 2024. At the same time, former Minister of Justice Judit Varga announced her retirement from politics. Because Varga signed that pardon last year as the Minister of Justice. She later resigned from her post to head the Fidesz electoral list for the 2024 European elections.

Many open questions

But even though the two most prominent politicians in Orbán's system have resigned, the case is still far from over. Many questions about the pardon affair remain open: the president in her resignation did not explain what motivated her to pardon Andre K. It is also unclear who and whether someone forced her to take that step. And above all: did Viktor Orbán himself know about the pardon and if so, what did he know?

Until now, the Prime Minister has been silent about the resignation of the former Minister for the Family. But, a few days earlier, he announced himself in a video on Facebook and said that "there is no mercy for pedophiles" and that he initiated the procedure to change the constitution according to which those who have committed crimes against minors can no longer be pardoned. Orbán says in the video with an angry and tortured expression that he himself has five children: "If someone touched them, the first thought would be to cut him to pieces." The video was interpreted as an indirect pre-announcement that Orbán rejected the president - and that she would resign.

Those who have left the system speak

However, it is now clear that the case is far from over. This was also shown by an unexpected statement: last weekend, the case was commented on by the well-known lawyer Peter Magjar - he is the ex-husband of Judit Varga.

At the turn of the millennium, the Hungarian belonged to a generation of younger conservative activists associated with Orbán's Fidesz party, who wanted to do something about corruption in the then social liberal government with great enthusiasm and idealism. After Orban came to power in 2010, the Hungarian built a career in well-paid positions, including one on the supervisory board of the semi-state-owned MBH-bank. Now the lawyer used the resignation of the president, and his ex-wife, to, as he said, "get out of the system": namely, he resigned from all his previous positions.

It cannot be reformed from within

The essence of his statement is that Katalin Novak and his ex-wife Judit Varga are just pawns and that they have to pay for the weaknesses of Orbán's system. According to the Hungarian, he no longer wants to be part of that system in which a few families use Hungary as their private company. However, the lawyer has so far avoided attacking Orban himself. He puts the blame on the powerful head of the cabinet, Antal Rogan, whom he accuses of having complete control over the state apparatus and media loyal to the government. The Hungarian also reported political interference in his and his ex-wife's private life - for example, through instructions from Orbán's office on how to handle the couple's divorce.

Most of Magyar's statements do not contain anything new or something that is completely unknown. The new thing is that they come from the mouth of an insider who, as he claims, has been internally criticizing the situation in Hungary for years, and now, he says, he is speaking publicly because he no longer wants to remain silent. His ex-wife, as well as the outgoing president, are praised by the Hungarian as true patriots who were broken in the corrupt machine of power.

It is unlikely that Orbán and his system will be seriously threatened by Peter Magyar's revelations. Orban will most likely try to screw everything up with cosmetic personnel changes. However, the statements of the Hungarians show two things: Orbán's system eats its own children from time to time. And it cannot be reformed from within.