The political scene in Republika Srpska (RS) enters a turbulent phase. Radovan Višković is no longer the Entity Prime Minister, and Siniša Karan was removed from the position of Minister of Internal Affairs in the process of forming an "unconstitutional" government.
Both of them were among the closest collaborators until recently Milorad Dodik.
Dodik himself is no longer the president of the RS, after the Central Election Commission stripped him of his mandate following a court verdict, although Dodik still acts like a president and that is widely accepted in the RS. writes DW.
According to the media, diplomatic efforts are aimed at Dodik "peacefully" accepting his departure.
By the verdict of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, he was found guilty of disobeying the decisions of the High Representative and cannot perform public functions for the next six years.
Although he publicly disputes the legitimacy of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik paid 36.000 marks in order to replace the prison sentence with a fine. Some observers say that he actually accepted the decision that he declaratively denies.
"Secret Conversations"
Dodik allegedly had several informal meetings with High Representative Christian Schmidt in recent months. There is no official confirmation, but according to RTV BN, sources close to Dodik claim that he was recommended to "peacefully withdraw" from politics with a guarantee that there will be no new processes.
The media recall Schmidt's statement at the beginning of his mandate: "Dodik and I have known each other for years. I have an invitation to come to his private estate. Maybe we can talk about it later. First we will work, I am German, and then we will drink brandy."
While pressure from the West continues, Dodik sought support in Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban said: "Milorad Dodik, the president of the RS, is in Budapest. Dodik was sentenced because he refuses to play the way Brussels plays. Hungary refuses to accept that decision."
Such statements were met with protest by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which reminds that Dodik is no longer the president of the RS, and assesses that Orban's behavior contradicts diplomatic practice and insults the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Dodik wants all the strings in his hands
Although formally out of office, Dodik tries to maintain control over political processes. His mistrust towards his closest collaborators is also evident in the case of BiH Presidency member Željka Cvijanović, who, although she is on the American "black list", resides in Washington.
The opposition claims that she is distancing herself from Dodik, but before the trip, as reported by the Raport portal, he appointed former adviser Ana Trišić-Babić to accompany Cvijanović and convey his messages to American officials.
The portal states that Cvijanović will be informed in Washington that Dodik must leave the political scene and respect the verdicts of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, including the holding of early elections for the president of the RS, which could mark the end of his political career.
According to analyst Srećko Latal, the fate of Dodik could be decided in the coming days. He reminds that the information about the meetings with Schmidt has not been confirmed, but that the pressure comes primarily from the USA and that Željka Cvijanović's stay in Washington is part of that process.
"For the Americans, the peace and stability of the Balkans is a strategic interest, and this is clearly shown in the messages sent to Dodik and Vučić," Latal told DW.
The American goal is to prevent escalations and ensure stability ahead of new election cycles. In this context, according to the interlocutor of DW, Washington expects Dodik to step down and open space for new leaders in the RS.
Survival until the general election?
The journalist of the Croatian News Agency (HINA) Ranko Mavrak believes that Dodik is trying to maintain control in Banja Luka, but also influence on the political processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"Although without a formal position, as the president of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, he still has power, which he will certainly demonstrate through his puppets in the governing bodies," Mavrak told DW.
Dismantling the "parallel power structure" could take time. "It will not disappear in two months when the elections for the new president of the RS are held," explains Mavrak, adding that it is realistic to expect that by the regular general elections in October 2026, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be "a victim of Dodik's vengeful ambitions."
Criminal charges for embezzlement
Mavrak warns that Dodik is already behaving like a "wounded beast" who is ready to drag into the political abyss all those who are not unconditionally loyal to him.
"The problem is that Bosnia and Herzegovina will suffer due to constant blockades, and the first targets will be the reform processes on the way to the EU," concludes Mavrak.
Some analysts estimate that there has not yet been a "break" at the top of the SNSD and that Dodik's political end and "escape" will follow only when he is accused of embezzling millions.
A hint of those processes also comes from the opposition List for Justice and Order. Party leader Nebojša Vukanović filed a new criminal complaint against Dodik, former RS Prime Minister Radovan Višković and Russian businessman Rašid Serdarov for the "Comsar-Serdarov" affair.
Portal Radiosarajevo reports that RS was damaged by more than 300 million marks through dubious concessions for the mine in Ugljevik, while most of the money ended up in offshore accounts.
Vukanović claims that it is a "robbery of enormous proportions", stressing that the judiciary bears the same responsibility as the perpetrators, if it continues to ignore the reports.
The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina has scheduled early elections for the President of the RS for November 23. That date could be a turning point. If Dodik shows that he still holds the levers of power, Bosnia and Herzegovina will enter a new period of political uncertainty - until the general elections in 2026.
