Biden's withdrawal from the race: What is the fate of the Democrats in the elections in November?

The news that the American president is Democrat Joe Biden after several weeks of intra-party pressure, he decided to withdraw from the pre-election race, putting an end to the story which, along with the assassination of Republican Donald Trump, has been a major topic in the American public in recent weeks. At the same time, Biden's decision opened the question of whether he will be replaced as presidential candidate by Kamala Harris, the current vice president of the United States, as well as do the democrats have enough time to reorganize the campaign and increase the chances of victory in November, reports "Voice of America" (VOA).

After announcing his decision to withdraw, Biden soon supported Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate, and many other influential members of the party did the same until Sunday evening.

Experts interviewed by the Voice of America state that Biden could have "timed" the final decision about appearing on the ballot differently, as well as that they expect an even more intense campaign in the coming months, but also that new faces could now get a chance in the Democratic Party. .

"In the past weeks, the pressure on the president gradually intensified, from members of his party, people from the House of Representatives, senators, governors, members of other institutions. Polls that not only showed that Biden is behind Trump at the national level and in key states also contributed to the decision, but, equally important, that the majority of Democratic voters have come to the point that they want him to withdraw from the race," he told Voice of America. Alan Abramowitz, professor emeritus of political science at Emory University in Atlanta.

In the letter, published on the X social network, Biden stated that he will remain president and commander-in-chief until the end of his term in January 2025 and that he will address the nation during the week. Harris, a former California senator and attorney general, said in a statement that she is honored to have Biden's support and that she intends to "earn and win" the Democratic nomination.

How far will Democratic officials and donors get behind Harris?

"Most Democratic likely candidates will endorse Harris, as a gesture of goodwill." But behind closed doors -- if there's significant disagreement about whether she can win or if there's agreement that she can't win or probably won't, then you'll see secretive efforts by some, especially governors, to offer their candidacies. The next few days will be crucial when it comes to how far Democratic officials and donors will stand behind Harris," Gary Schmidt, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, told VOA Georgia.

For Charles Kapchan, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Biden's decision is "brave, difficult, but also necessary" as pressure from party members and donors mounts and the issue of his age dominates the news.

"My guess is that since Biden has endorsed her, Harris will emerge as the new presidential candidate." She will choose the governor of one of the key states to be her running mate. It will be ratified at the Democratic Convention. And we have a race to November," explains Kapčan.

He estimates that the campaign will now become "increasingly fierce and that states that may have been firmly in Trump's column will now return to uncertainty."

Kapčan also believes that there will be a fight between Republicans and Democrats for undecided voters, especially in key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with the assessment that Republican Donald Trump announced this by choosing Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential candidate.

"Americans now have a good, clear choice before them." Vance and Trump are much more neo-isolationist. Democrats, no matter who ends up on the ballot, are much more internationalist, pro-alliance, pro-Ukraine. And now I think we will see a kind of fierce, direct competition that the Americans deserve", Kapčan believes.

Despite the concern of the Democrats that he does not have the mental capacity for a second term, and the growing lag behind Trump in the polls, until today's announcement, Biden insisted that he will remain in the race. According to a source cited by Reuters, Biden told aides on Saturday night that he planned to stay in the race, only to change his mind on Sunday afternoon.

For Anne Dunnehy, a professor of strategic communication at Boston University, Biden's decision was inevitable, but she believes that it is bad for the Democratic Party that intra-party disagreements have gone public almost unfiltered in recent weeks.

"I think he really had no choice anymore, not only because of the pressure from people in the party, but also because of his understanding of what's happening, so covid, the debate." "I don't really understand why the party publicly announced calls for him to step down and I don't know what was going on behind the scenes," Danehy explained.

If they choose Harris as their presidential candidate, the Democrats will find themselves in a similar situation as in 2016, when Hillary Clinton competed in the race for the White House and lost to Trump.

"I think there were several reasons why Clinton lost, and I don't think the fact that she was a woman was the cause of the defeat." And I don't expect it to be a problem with Kamala Harris either," Danehi answers when asked if American society is ready for a female head of state.

Wrong timing of the withdrawal decision

Four days before the announcement that he was withdrawing from the presidential race, Biden tested positive for covid for the third time, which forced him to cut short his pre-election visit to Nevada and return home to Delaware, where he is in isolation. So far, more than 35 Democratic members of Congress have called on him to drop out of the race.

"It would have been better if he had made that decision sooner, perhaps after the 2022 congressional elections, which would have given time to hold a truly competitive primary election, where more Democrats would be running, including Vice President Harris." But it's too late for that now. The situation is not ideal, but I think there is still enough time for Harris since she will inherit the organization of the Biden campaign and the large amount of money that has been collected", assesses Professor Alan Abramovitz.

He adds that it seems to him that the prevailing opinion among Democrats is that, despite all of Biden's weaknesses after the debate and the polls in which Trump leads, the Republican candidate is within reach.

"They see that he has significant weaknesses, and that -- while he's very popular with the Republican base -- that base is not big enough to win a presidential election." What we saw at the convention, especially with Trump's speech, was that he didn't make many attempts to attract voters outside his base... Nothing is certain, but I think the Democrats will feel better about their chances now that Biden has retired," Abramowitz believes. .

By his decision to retire, Biden certainly wrote the pages of American history, as he became the first incumbent president to give up his candidacy for a second term since Lyndon Johnson did it in March 1968.

"This will be a significant point in history, even though voters have short memories and some things are quickly forgotten as the day unfolds," says Professor Anne Dannehy.

In his first reaction to Biden's decision, Trump told CNN that he thought it would be easier to beat Harris than Biden.

"I think politics in general will become more important in the campaign, because so far the news has been almost entirely dominated by Biden and the issue of his candidacy." Now that that's settled, we're going to have an issue-focused campaign where Democrats and Republicans can lay out their platforms and debate head-on. "Given the stakes of the November election, that's the kind of debate and clear choice that the American people deserve," says Kapcan.

What to expect in the continuation of the campaign?

During the party's primary, Biden won nearly 3.900 delegates who are supposed to formally select a presidential nominee at the party's convention in Chicago in August. Just a few hours after the current US president announced his decision to retire, messages of support for Harris began to arrive from party colleagues such as California governor Gavin Newsom, who was even mentioned by the media as a possible rival for the position, as well as former head of state Bill Clinton and his wife, Hillary Clinton, who was the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016.

"We don't know exactly how things will play out in the coming weeks." Maybe they'll do an unofficial poll before the Democratic convention. I think we're going to see the Democratic Party come together pretty quickly, which is important because the party is not ideologically unified. There is a strong progressive and a strong centrist wing. The last thing Democrats want is a disorganized discussion that turns into an ideological debate within the party. That's why it's important that Biden supported Kamala Harris", assesses Kapcan.

It is to be expected, in the continuation of the campaign, predicts Professor Anne Danehi, that Harris will get much more space in the media, but will also be a more frequent target of criticism from Donald Trump and the Republicans.

"Biden's strategy was basically to say to the voters - don't elect Trump." There was no more talk about why some thought Biden was the better candidate. It was really about voting against Trump. And I think that was the strategy they needed", analyzes Danehi.

He believes that the strategy of the Democrats could now turn, if Harris really becomes a candidate for the presidency.

"They're going to have to introduce Harris to the voters because even though she's the vice president, she hasn't been super visible and I don't know how well the voters know her." Also, if it comes to that, I expect a very interesting debate. She is a prosecutor and could attack Trump a lot more for his comments. On the other hand, I expect the Republicans to attack her even before the Democrats make her official and define her as a candidate," Danehy concluded.

Source: Voice of America (VOA)