Should we pour money into everything that is called artificial intelligence and that, as they announce, will overrun what we do now with ordinary software?
At the end of the nineties, it was enough to add the prefix E to your job and you entered the elite world digitization. That's how we got e-government, e-elections, e-banks or, simply, e-mail. E as an abbreviation for electronic indicated something that was the opposite of analog and paper, something that would soon overthrow the outdated world as we knew it. Then two storms occurred, one excessive and the other overpumped. The first was the fear of the millennium virus, that is, that it would computers go crazy when they go from 999 to 000 because, to save memory, the year is written with three instead of at least four digits. Nothing significant happened because the computers were upgraded in time.
That overblown problem was called the Internet, and it did cause quite a bit of chaos when the Internet bubble burst in the mid-2000s. Internet hajp from the end of the nineties, it led to crazy investments in everything that was on E. It was enough to do something on the Internet and money fell from the sky, everyone wanted to be in that story that promised enormous profits, but one day, when it becomes profitable. My favorite example is a steel trading site that was worth more on the stock market than the entire US steel industry. When the bubble burst, many investors ran out of money (so they rushed into real estate with what was left, to get out, but that's another, also sad story).
Today we find ourselves in a similar situation accompanied by new anxieties. Should we pour money into everything called artificial intelligence, which, as they announce, will overtake what we are doing now? ordinary software?
In both eras (E and VI) there is the same feeling: if you are not on that train, you are already late. There are fewer people who wonder where that train is going and why. But there is also a growing fear that the train could break gravel, that is, to burst like the internet bubble 25 years ago. With investments now much higher, OpenAI alone recently hit a $500 billion valuation, and it's a startup in question.
Skeptics say that most of today's VI projects are not profitable enough. The cost of training the model goes up to 70 percent, and that is only the foundation on which to build. Energy requirements and copyright uncertainty often outweigh the real benefits. The market is flooded with startups without a clear product and monetization plan. More money is being spent on marketing to attract new investment, instead of on sustainability. The so-called "AI washing" creates the illusion of innovation, while many companies are still in the experimental phase. Company valuations are unrealistic, based on a future that may not happen at that rate. All too reminiscent of dot on fever - the rational investor must be aware that a lot of money will calibrate before the real and recoverable value appears.
On the other hand, artificial intelligence is no longer a promise but the infrastructure of the future economy. Companies that integrate VI early are already seeing increased productivity and reduced costs. VI automates routines, opens new markets and generates entire ecosystems of applications. Investing in AI is not just an investment in technology, but in the ability of businesses to survive in a world where intelligent systems will be the standard, not a luxury. Just as it is impossible to do serious business without the Internet today, it's just that no one thinks that being online is magic in itself anymore.
Proponents of AI investment say that those who invest today are buying time and experience for the days when algorithms will become inevitable business partners. And they think it will happen faster than we predict.
The situation is similar to a forest fire. As catastrophic as it may seem, a fire frees up space for forest regeneration because it clears away all the overgrowth. Serious trees are ready for that scenario because that's how forests have regenerated for as long as they and fire have existed. For those whose money gets burned in that fire, it is no consolation that a better world will emerge from it. If you invest in VI, keep that in mind.
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