Danici Popović - Conquest of freedom

September 25, 16:09

He researches, writes, teaches and speaks publicly about open economy macroeconomics

To Danica Popović, full professor on the courses Macroeconomic Models and Macroeconomics of Open Economy at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, researcher at the Institute for Industrial Economics, member Center for Liberal Studies, an occasional consultant to the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (ITC/WTO) on issues of macroeconomic policy and foreign trade liberalization, was presented with the 14th "Winning of Freedom" award given by the "Maja Maršićević-Tasić" Fund - on September 24, the day when the citizens replaced Slobodan Milošević's regime in elections 14 years ago.

The "Winning of Freedom" award is awarded by the "Maja Maršićević Tasić" Fund, founded in 2001, to a woman who, through her actions, advocates for the affirmation of the principles of human rights, the rule of law, democracy and tolerance in society.

Articles in the media by Danica Popović

Texts in Time

The Hungarian Governor and the Foolish Government, VREME | BR 742 | MARCH 24, 2005;

Who confused the pots - the World Bank or the IMF?, VREME | BR 768 | SEPTEMBER 22, 2005

Winners of the Conquest of Freedom award

2001 - Olja Bećković, journalist

2002 - Goranka Matić, editor and photographer of the weekly "Vreme"

2003 – Biljana Srbljanović, playwright

2004 – Ruzica Đinđić, lawyer

2005 – Borka Pavićević, playwright

2006 - Hedvig Morvai-Horvath, director of the Citizen's Pact for SEE

2007 - Lila Radonjić, director and editor-in-chief of Production Group "Mreža"

2008 – Mirjana Karanović, actress

2009 - Srbijanka Turajlić, professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Belgrade

2010 – Verica Barać, president of the Council for the fight against corruption

2011 – Aida Ćorović, journalist

2012 – Dubravka Stojanović, historian

2013 – Brankica Stanković, journalist

2014 - Danica Popović, professor at the Faculty of Economics

Contributions to the biography of Danica Popović

Danica Popović graduated in 1979 from the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade with an average grade of 9.64. Master's degree in 1985. Master's thesis: "Alternative approaches in the pure theory of foreign trade" was published in 1987 as a monograph under the title "Theorems in International Exchange". She received her doctorate in 1990 at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, with the topic "Foreign trade in equilibrium growth models". In the period 1980-1988, she worked as a researcher at the Institute for Industrial Economics in Belgrade, and since 1989 she has been employed at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, first as an assistant in the subject of Economic Statistics, and since 1992 as an assistant professor in the subject of Macroeconomic Balances. Since 2006, he has been a full-time professor on the courses Macroeconomic Models and Macroeconomics of Open Economy.

Since 1999, he has been a member of the Center for Liberal-Democratic Studies, where he works on consulting and research projects. He is an occasional consultant to the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (ITC/WTO) on issues of macroeconomic policy and foreign trade liberalization. On several occasions (1987, 1991 and 1996), she was on specialization at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences. He speaks, reads and writes English and French. He is a member of EACES (European Association for Comparative Economic Studies), a member of the Scientific Society of Economists, a member of the Statistical Society of Serbia, and a reviewer in the journal Economic Thought. She published more than 60 bibliographic units.

Published works

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a) Books, dissertations and monographs

1. Group of authors (2008), From Poverty to Prosperity (chapters 3 and 4) CLDS, CATO and Official Gazette, in preparation

2. Danica Popović Economics of common sense - in preparation (Official Gazette) a collection of articles from the press, probably published in 2009

3. Group of authors (2008) Greenfield investments in Serbia, CLDS;.

4. Group of authors, (2008) Reforms in Serbia: achievements and challenges, 2008.

5. Danica Popović (2006) Economic dictionary for journalists, CLDS

6. Group of authors, (2005) Four years of transition in Serbia Four years of transition Center for liberal-democratic studies, chapter 2: Economic activity and macroeconomic policy

7. Popović, Danica and Jovičić, Andrija (2003) "Country Study - FR Yugoslavia", in: "Trade Policies and Institutions in the Countries of South Eastern Europe in the EU Stabilization and Association Process", World bank Report No. 24460

8. Foreign trade in equilibrium growth models, doctoral dissertation, 1991

9. Theorems on international exchange, BIGZ, 1988.

10. Alternative approaches in the pure theory of foreign trade, master's thesis, 1985.

11th translation of the textbook Macroeconomics: a European textbook, Burda, Wyplosz, III edition Oxford University Press, CLDS, 2004

12th translation of the textbook Macroeconomics: a European textbook, Burda, Wyplosz, IV edition Oxford University Press, EF - in preparation for 2009.

13th translation of the textbook International Economics, Dominik Salvatore, 2007th edition John Wiley & Sons (2009), EF, in preparation for XNUMX.

b) Articles in professional journals

14. Economic trends and macroeconomic policy of Serbia, Yugoslav Review, 2005 (taken from the monograph "Four Years of Transition")

15. What is a real exchange rate, Prizma, March 2004

16. Trade Policies and Institutions in the Countries of South Eastern Europe in the EU Stabilization and Association Process, World Bank Conference on Trade Policies in SEE, June 11-12 2001, Budapest, proceedings

17. Economic Developments in Serbia, ITC/WTO, Geneva December 2003, mimeo

18. Flying Circus of Trade Liberalization in Serbia and Montenegro, EU Conference on the Foreign Trade Regime of the Future Community, Media Center, translated in Prizma magazine (December 2002a)

19. Crnković, Popović, Vukotić (2001) "A Government Information System for Montenegro", in "Managing Information Technology in a Global Economy: IRMA Proceedings" Idea Group Publishing

20. "Institutional Change and Economic Performance in the Transition Economies, a Comment", Economic Survey of Europe, 2001, No 1, part II

21. The influences in changes in macroeconomic regime and policy on the development of the foreign trade of Serbia, Wiener Institute of Foreign Trade, December 2000

22. A warning to Serbian policy-makers: Say No to Early Euroization!!!; CEPS conference: A European Agenda for a Democratic Serbia, CEPS, Brussels, 6-7 November, 2000a

23. The Exchange Rate Misalignment in FR Yugoslavia: diagnosis and proposals, international conference The Czech Exchange Rate Crisis, Prague, 1998a

24. Yugoslavia after the Sanctions: Principal Constraints to Economic Recovery, Conference on Economic Reconstruction and Development Policies in the Yugoslav Successor States, Bristol, UK, June 1997.

25. FR Yugoslavia Before and After the Sanctions: a Scenario of Recovery, International conference dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, September 1996.

26. Three key measures of the success of the Serbian transition, Prizma, 2000.

27. Korean Recipe for Serbian Export Strategy: Ignorance or Will to Power?, Economic Institute and CIPE, II Forum on Economic Policy 2001

28. First steps of integration into the world economy: convertibility, exchange rate and liberalization, Economic Policy Forum, Economic Institute and CIPE, 2000

29. The work that must be done - the harmonization of Yugoslavia's foreign trade policy with the rules of the World Trade Organization, Ekonomika, 2000

30. Economic foundations of the new Serbian trade blockade, Ekonomika, June 2000.

31. Introduction of the system of national accounts and innovations of the existing calculation of macroeconomic aggregates in Montenegro - part III: Program implementation of an online information system for the collection, processing and use of macroeconomic aggregates in the Republic of Montenegro, Podgorica 1999 (ongoing project)

32. Opportunity cost of fixed exchange rate policy: theory and experience versus official policy, Council of the Association of Economists of Yugoslavia, Milocer, June 1997.

33. Trade liberalization and economic performance in transition: the case of FR Yugoslavia; international conference "Challenges and Opportunities for the Transition in Yugoslavia", Belgrade, 1998.

34. Yugoslavia's prospects for sustained growth, international conference "EU enlargement - Yugoslavia and the Balkans", Belgrade 1997a

35. FR Yugoslavia Before and After the Sanctions: a Scenario of Recovery, Ekonomska misao, No. 1, 1997

36. Exchange rate and liberalization, Vreme, supplement "Transition", July 1997 (invited article)

37. Foreign Investments, Time, supplement "Transition", July 1997 (invited article)

38. Political freedom, efficiency and economic growth, Economic Thought No. 1-2, 1997

39. FR Yugoslavia and the EU: Principal Impediments to Reaching a Self-sustained growth path, May 1996, international conference FR Yugoslavia and EU: possibilities of Co-operation, Belgrade, May 1996.

40. Economic Developments in FR Yugoslavia: a Country Report, Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1993-1997, semi-annual publication prepared for UNECE (co-author and editor)

41. Power of dispersion and key sectors of the Yugoslav economy, SYM-OP-IS. (Symposium on operational research), 1988.

42. Neo-Ricardian approach in the pure theory of foreign trade, Ekonomska analiza, vol.21, Zagreb, No. 2 in 1987.

43. Classical approach in the theory of foreign trade, Collection of selected papers of the Institute for Industrial Economics, 1987.

44. Decomposition of economic growth factors, SYM-OP-IS 1986.

45. The optimal export structure, SYM-OP-IS, 1984.

46. Transfer of technology to developing countries, Industry, 1982.

c) Studies and projects

47. Forum on the most important measures and obstacles for increasing employment (Employment growth forum), part: foreign direct investments, CLDS and USAID, March 2005.

48. Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP), part: Serbia's relations with international financial institutions, 2004

49. Consolidation of the foreign debt of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1996 (editor and author)

50. Stabilization program for 1995 - policies and measures in the short term, CES MECON, 1995 (co-author)

51. Stabilization program for the second half of 1994, Belgrade: Center for . economic studies CES MECON, 1994, (co-author)

52. Program of Structural Adjustment of the Economy of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Belgrade: Center. for economic studies CES MECON, 1993 (co-author)

53. Program of Macroeconomic Stabilization of the FR Yugoslavia, Federal Government. 1992 (co-author)

54. Economic Developments in FR Yugoslavia: a Country Report, Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1993-1997 (editor and co-author), semi-annual publication intended for the Economic Commission for Europe at the United Nations

55. Program of Macroeconomic Stabilization of the FR Yugoslavia, Federal Government, 1992. (co-author)

56. Institutional framework of the structural reform of the PTT system: Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1995 (leader and co-author) The Stabilization Program for the Second Half of 1994, Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1994, (co-author) 57. Structural Adjustment of the Yugoslav Economy, Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1993 (co-author)

58. Macroeconomic Stabilization Program, Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1993, (co-author)

59. Economic structure of Yugoslavia - analysis and evaluation of the situation, (co-author), Institute for . economy of industry, 1987.

60. Macroeconomic Stabilization Program of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON, 1992 (co-author)

61. Possible economic growth of the economy of the Slovak Republic outside SAP and projection of basic aggregates Belgrade: Institute for the Economy of Industry, (co-author), 1985.

62. Structural reform of the PTT system: economic and technological justification of the separation of post and public telecommunications in JP PTT traffic Serbia, . Belgrade: Center for Economic Studies CES MECON 1993 (director and co-author)

63. Development of the PTT network in OECD countries (bulletin no. 1, April 1992)

64. Abolition of the monopoly of the PTT service and privatization of TELECOM (bulletin no. 3, June 1992)

65. Basic principles of changing the economic structure of Yugoslavia (co-author), Institute. for industrial economics, 1986.

66. Production orientation of the economy of the SR of Serbia outside the SAP territory as a function of increasing exports in the period 1986. 1990, (co-author), Belgrade: Institute for Industrial Economics, 1985.

67. Possible economic growth of the economy of the Slovak Republic outside SAP and projection of basic aggregates Belgrade: Institute for the Economy of Industry, (co-author), 1985.

Source: Work biography of Danica Popović

Works published abroad

***

1. Popović, D. and Jovičić, A. (2003) "Country Study - FR Yugoslavia", in: "Trade Policies and Institutions in the Countries of South Eastern Europe in the EU Stabilization and Association Process", World bank Report No. 24460

In this extensive case study, mechanisms are described in detail and open problems in the functioning of foreign trade institutions and policies in the then FR Yugoslavia are presented. The aim of the study was to examine the quality of foreign trade policy reforms and institutions built in the FRY, starting from the fact that the transition processes are late, and that the starting position from 2000 is extremely low, and that in the process of disintegration and the decline of economic activity in the FRY, foreign trade flows have derogated and previously relatively well-developed institutions practically stopped working. Most of the activities went into the gray zone, and instead of laws, the flows were mostly guided by corruption and cronyism (political patronage).

The study is divided into ten chapters. The first three refer to macroeconomic trends during the 90s, followed by an analysis of foreign trade institutions and policies in the period up to 2000, where all relevant points where a dramatic decline has been registered since the 90s and which must be revitalized as soon as possible are analyzed. The next three chapters are devoted to the analysis of foreign trade policies in the areas of import, export and foreign trade protection. In addition to the analysis of all favorable trends, the study points to the inevitability of further urgent liberalization, especially in the plan of abolishing registration fees, as well as in the plan of further reduction and simplification of the customs structure (we have witnessed that instead of simplification, the structure later only became more complicated). The application of anti-dumping measures and measures to protect the balance of payments was analyzed in detail, with the conclusion that it is first necessary to increase the level of professional training of domestic management personnel for these tasks. The highly monopolized economic structure will not be reduced, at least not until the privatization process is fully completed and the anti-monopoly legislation is fully implemented. When it comes to barriers to entry and domestic competitiveness, no significant formal obstacles were registered. Due to the continuation of corruption and cronyism not only in foreign trade but also in the judiciary, etc., the informal obstacles to the creation of a competitive economic environment are much more significant than the formal ones. The next two chapters are devoted to the analysis of the political economy of foreign trade policy and the problems of entering the EU market, while the last chapter summarizes the conclusions and presents recommendations that should be followed in the formation of foreign trade policy and the construction of foreign trade institutions in the FRY.

The general assessment is that no serious mistakes were made in the construction of institutions and the creation of a modern environment for foreign trade operations, but that a very small part of the road has been covered. Among the recommendations, measures to combat corruption in the state administration and the acceleration and harmonization of domestic legislation with the standards of the World Trade Organization and the EU occupy a very high place. The study also warns that, despite all measures taken locally, the success of the reforms will crucially depend not only on technical support but also on financial assistance from international financial institutions.

2. "Institutional Change in the Transition Economies", Session II of the UNECE Spring Seminar, May 7-8 2001, Geneva, Economic Survey of Europe, 2001, No 1, part II

This paper was an introductory comment on the article by prof. Paul Hare from Herriot Watt University in Edinburgh, whose basic thesis was that the transition process from the 90s reached a dead end primarily because the authorities of transition economies focused on the privatization of state sector companies and building institutions that will effectively support that process, instead of focusing on building greenfield investments and building institutions that will support this process. Also, the emphasis of the work is on the analysis of the need to build strong state institutions, as well as changes in entrepreneurial behavior in countries in transition, with a moderate level of competition protection in the country.

Danica Popović's criticism was focused on the problem that the key question, which refers to the driving forces for the creation of institutions, was not answered, without which the possibility of placing the analysis within the framework of the political economy of transition is lost. The second point of this paper is the analysis of the cases of Russia and Serbia, where the problem certainly does not lie in the absence of institutions, but in corruption that has compromised all their functions. Excessive bureaucratic power, on the one hand, management of decrees instead of laws (discretion vs. rules) inhibits both foreign and domestic greenfield investments, while at the same time favoring state monopolies, so that the thesis that the processes of privatization of state monopolies and the creation of new firms are divergent processes that require special institutions that differ significantly from each other does not stand.

"Moderate level of competition protection" proposed by Prof. Hare is currently playing into the hands of the monopolists who are closest to the political top and who will use this concept to their own advantage and to the detriment of the standard of the population, which has been confirmed in all transition economies. Such "moderation" must be paid for by inflation or recession, and is therefore inferior to the model where the main goal of the policy would be the growth of employment in the tradables sector, when a fully competitive environment must be created in the country as soon as possible, primarily due to the arrival of strategic investors. Popović proposed the introduction of a transparent timing of liberalization that would let all players know that the government's intention is to create a competitive economic environment, while at the same time giving all players time to prepare for tougher competition, in order to simultaneously avoid shocks in terms of unemployment growth and the accompanying drop in living standards.

In this article, Danica Popović also disputed the thesis of Prof. Hare that countries in transition need to rely more on domestic savings and investments, and to give up the fight for the greatest possible inflow of foreign direct investments. This position is first of all challenged by the practice of the most successful countries in transition, where the largest part of economic growth, exports and employment is absorbed precisely in this sector. Apart from capital, which is lacking in the country or comes from the gray and black zone, for countries in transition there is a question of management skills, the possession of built export channels and the possibility for the country to break domestic monopolies as soon as possible, all of which cannot be done without foreign direct investments. In addition, in the first phase, it is necessary to strengthen domestic consumption, and at a low level of standards, this automatically means that domestic savings cannot grow excessively, and as a bypass, FDI appears here. It is only after the first few transitional years that one can talk about the legalization of the existing one, and only then about the growth of domestic savings and domestic investments, which requires prior to that or simultaneous approaches to the credible construction of transparent and credible institutions for the protection of rights and property in the state. Domestic savings occur at the end, not at the beginning of this process.

3. Four years of transition in Serbia (2005), Center for liberal-democratic studies, chapter 2: Economic activity and macroeconomic policy (reprinted in the journal Jugoslovenski pregled)

The macroeconomic aspect of the transition in the monograph Four years of transition in Serbia is covered in eighty pages and in ten chapters, grouped into two parts, the first of which referred to economic trends and a comparative analysis of the results achieved in Serbia and other transition economies in a comparable time horizon, while the second focused on the analysis of the applied macroeconomic and foreign trade policy and the proposal to change it.

During the four years of transition, Serbia changed two governments, and went through four cycles in the conduct of economic policy: (1) reformist (2) abandoning reforms in mid-2003 and shifting the focus to (later rejected) issues of harmonization with the economy of Montenegro, with a partial renunciation of its own initial foreign trade liberalization (3) the arrival of a new government (beginning of 2004), incoherence, rollback of reforms and almost nine months of systematic populist moves and finally (4) positive progress and announcements of good reform measures (2005), which followed the interventions of the IMF, the WB and the EU's announcement of the start of the stabilization and association process from October 2005. Thus, in these first four years of transition, less than half of the time was spent on serious transitional issues, while the remaining part was characterized by typical macroeconomic populism, with announcements of reconsideration of the performed liberalization (at the end of Prime Minister Živković's mandate), announcements of changes in privatization methods and revisions of completed privatizations, cancellation of already introduced liberalization measures, etc. (Prime Minister Koštunica's government). Therefore, the population did not get the impression that the transition process itself is inevitable and irreversible, and that the most difficult reform moves - abolition of subsidies, bankruptcies and mass loss of non-productive jobs - can in fact be postponed indefinitely.

From a country where the harvest was traditionally paid to the peasants exclusively from the primary emission, Serbia became a regulated fiscal area in four years of transition. Numerous quasi-fiscal activities of the central bank were stopped, special budget funds and "special" accounts were eliminated, and the Treasury was constituted, which created the basis for conducting a sound fiscal policy. Delays in the payment of pensions and child benefits have become a thing of the past, and arrears are gradually being returned. Finally, at the beginning of the fifth year of the transition, the value added tax was finally introduced, which led to a significant increase in budget revenues. In order to calm the heated aggregate demand, the fifth year of the transition will end with a small cash budget surplus, in the amount of 1.2% of GDP. In this sense, Serbia has become a country with very strong fiscal discipline, which, if this policy continues, will significantly raise Serbia's investment and credit rating.

Unlike the first government, which quite decisively took the first transitional steps, but bypassed the key issue of financial discipline, the current, current government has gained a reputation as a builder of institutions that do not work, but at the same time as a silent protector of clientelism, which currently has to give way to the demands of the IMF. Such policies of the "stop-go" type are in complete contradiction to two key principles in the successful management of the economy, namely that (i) all measures should be implemented in small doses, thereby reducing turbulence to a minimum, and (ii) each subsequent measure must be a recognizable and logical continuation of previously applied measures (Wyplosz, Burda, 2004). Only then do business entities stop relying more on acquaintances with ministers than on their own assessments of future market trends

In four years of transition, a whole series of missed opportunities can be registered. The most important missed endeavor is the implementation of modern bankruptcy legislation. Contrary to the successful transitional economies, there was not enough political will in Serbia to determine, announce and implement a firm budget restriction soon after coming to power, which has not been implemented even to this day. With the arrival of the second government, the most important missed opportunity is reflected in the absence of the construction of a modern judicial system and the implementation of key adopted laws. Therefore, no future move in Serbia can be judged on the basis of previous moves, which to a large extent instills uncertainty and causes great political dissatisfaction, and a large part of voters practically distracts from the idea of seeking a better future for themselves, simply because they themselves do not know what kind of future they want to create for their voters. Therefore, it is really necessary to follow the two stated criteria for a good macroeconomic policy - to implement the defined goals in small doses, and to create each subsequent measure in a way that represents a logical sequence and strengthens the conviction of the electorate that the government has both a vision and the instruments with which it can achieve it. The author emphasizes that such a policy has given good results in relatively undeveloped democracies such as Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and even Armenia, and there is no significant reason why such a positive experience cannot be applied in Serbia as well.

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Danici Popović - Conquest of freedom

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Danici Popović - Conquest of freedom

Winners of the Conquest of Freedom award

Contributions to the biography of Danica Popović

Published works

Works published abroad

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The security sector is at the level of the police service in Ćaciland

Half man, half demon

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Ignorant people know how to hate best

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