Conference in Berlin - Let go of the horns... if you don't let go, I will kill you with an ax in the head in the green grass

Balkans: A hundred years ago and today

At the invitation of Angela Merkel, on the day when this copy of "Vremen" is in front of readers, a conference on the Western Balkans will be held in Berlin. The conference is attended by the prime ministers, heads of diplomacy and economy of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo.

The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, and the Commissioners for Enlargement and Energy also participate in the work of the conference, Stefan Füle and Günther Oettinger, and the participation of high representatives of Croatia is also expected, Slovenian, Austria and France.

Expectations are very diverse. Everyone came with hope, but also with anxiety, but it is in the power of political language, diplomatic formulas and, finally, the local media's arguments with the authorities to convince the public of the entire unfortunate Balkan wolf that "we really won".

The most radical criticism of the whole matter was made by Jovo Bakić, who wrote in the author's text for "Politika": "The greatest misfortune, however, is that since the breakup of Yugoslavia there is no critical mass in the Balkans that would once again, like 100 years ago, form a 'Balkans by Balkans' policy nations', of which Yugoslavia was the main and most powerful offshoot. In this way, the Balkans, who are quarreling with each other in general, and especially the South Slavs, have to listen to Chancellor Merkel's hypocritical Balkanist lessons with the blissful satisfaction of weak-minded scoundrels or the sadness and anger of defeated rebels, that the Balkan states "must not be left to themselves too soon", because progress is taking place in the Balkans. at a snail's pace'. Thus, the old imperial policy of cultural heritage, interrupted by the creation of two Yugoslavias after both world wars, returned with all its force to the Balkans with the end of Yugoslavia."

The politics of deep bowing: Mišković picked apples

The snail's pace was not invented by Jovo Bakić, but it was the assessment made the other day by the most powerful politician in Europe, and it's hard not to agree with it. But as much as it says about "us Balkans", it also says as much about the inefficiency of Europe and very often about the "willow wedge" of every European policy - trust in those who court it the most, so every hour it turns out that their snail is faster than ours.

Here, in the light of the Ukrainian crisis, which is becoming the primary issue of the entire EU policy, Serbia is not leading, but neither is it lagging behind. We recognized, declaratively, the territorial integrity of Ukraine - and as if we could have done something else - and saved some face with the "deep bow on all four sides" policy, while the Montenegrins, for example, introduced "sanctions" against Russia and now it turns out that they leading the way: they just have to provide conditions for fair political competition, fight against corruption, media equality and another five or six conditions that are equal for all countries of the unhappy and disordered region.

Aleksandar Vučić, with skillful spin and a senseless press conference, and on the occasion of a general warning to the countries that are candidates for EU admission and those who just intend to join that society of hunters "on Angela Merkel's skirt" - how would it not be nice to undermine them with state intervention in agriculture the effectiveness of European sanctions against Russia, that is, they use the Russian response for their own benefit - showed "determination in weakness".

We have nothing to sell to the Russians, nor do we have the money to subsidize any agricultural production in the short term. Mišković, for example, when Vučić already mentioned him, had already sold all the apples to the Russians and now he could ritually pick the twenty apples that grow on the terrace in front of his office. How will he and the other mentioned "agricultural tycoons" increase "infant production" and how long does it take and how much does it cost to go from sow's teat to pork leg in Russian butchers? Smart countries think about this in time and implement subsidy policy for the long term, and do not think about it when the possibility of speculation arises.

Rather, it will be the other way around here. We will export to Russia as before, so minimally. Faced with surpluses of its own products, the EU will reduce the purchase of ours and will also look to increase the sale of its own products in Serbia. What would Johnny Štulić say: "My Balkans!"

Mile is going on the Lajkovac route.: What awaits Dodik??

However, there are also interesting political issues. One of those is for sure - the issue of Republika Srpska. On the eve of the Berlin conference, Vučić stated that he would not support Milorad Dodik in the October elections in Srpska, that is, he would not support any party or personality. They are already applauding him from Berlin.

This created, overnight, the belief that Dodik will lose the elections and here we have "Daytona Two", who will "make the formulation of the federation effective".

After Kosovo, it was Srpska's turn. The one who believes that this will close the circle of renunciation of what was once considered the primary interest of Serbia in the Western Balkans is not wrong. Radio Free Europe had a good sense of the topic and invited as interlocutors the duty professor and diplomat Predrag Simić, always at the service of the public and any other service, and Enver Kazaz, a professor from Sarajevo.

Here's what they say. Simić: "This is a turn by Belgrade and it probably comes at a time when Germany is preparing to hold a meeting with the countries of the Western Balkans, where BiH will be in the center of attention, at least judging by the news coming from Germany." Therefore, it can easily happen that the main target of that meeting will be Milorad Dodik."

Vučić's statement will bring stability both in BiH and in the region, and in the Republika Srpska, encouragement for a united opposition - assesses Sarajevo professor Enver Kazaz.

"Vučić continues with his policy, which is far more correct towards BiH than all the policies of the previous governments in Serbia," Kazaz believes.

Is it at the same time a more serious support from Belgrade to a united Bosnia and Herzegovina, a departure from Dodik's policy of open flirting across the Drina and turning his head away from Sarajevo? Predrag Simić believes that it is a policy of supporting the policy that the USA and the EU will lead, whatever it may be.

"I think that this is the policy that Belgrade has been pursuing since the elections in May 2012." It goes for full cooperation with the demands of the Western international community, the USA and the EU, in this case primarily the USA. At the moment, Belgrade does not have the strength for any other policy, except to accept that it is the policy of the West in the Western Balkans. The balance of power has changed and the time has come for a change that will make Bosnia and Herzegovina closer to Sarajevo's goals," explains Simić.

Professor Kazaz believes that Vučić's message will affect Dodik's rating.

"There is no doubt that Dodik was someone who, together with Tadić, appeared as the master of all Serbs." And that at this moment Dodik's political actions are in complete decline. It should be said that Vučić was not in favor of Dodik even before. Vučić's attitude towards Dodik is clear, and it is also clear that the opposition in the territory of RS has united to finally overthrow that regime. One thing is certain: Dodik is a certain loser of the elections in October. "And Vučić's statement is just one of the pebbles that pushes him to the political bottom," claims Professor Kazaz.

But don't worry. When the Serbian media process it, it will be that our snail is the fastest!