Serbia is not a country rich in oil, because it produces only about 25 percent of its needs, and imports the rest. Nevertheless, under normal circumstances, Serbia exports a part of oil and oil derivatives, when it pays for it, in order to make money on the price, and the biggest buyers of these energy products are countries Certificates, or rather the region, and especially Bosnia and Herzegovina. That is why they will be hit by the hook of the Government of Serbia to stop the export of oil and all its derivatives.
After the European Union, Serbia has the most foreign trade exchanges with the CEFTA countries, with which it made money in business, according to data from last year.
"Our second most important partner is the Cefta countries, with which we have an exchange surplus of 3352,5 million dollars, which is the result of mainly exports: grains and their products, road vehicles, beverages, oil and oil derivatives, medical and pharmaceutical products," according to the report of the Republic Institute of Statistics for December 2025.
BiH is among the largest importers of Serbian fuel
In the first ten months of 2025, Serbia exported oil derivatives worth almost 252,7 million convertible marks to Bosnia and Herzegovina, thus becoming one of the largest suppliers of motor fuel in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
According to data from the BiH Indirect Taxation Administration, from January to October 2025, Serbia shipped 198.728.723 kilograms of oil derivatives, ranking third with a share of 14,85 percent of total imports, right behind Italy and Croatia. During 2024, Serbia was the second largest supplier of fuel in BiH, right after Italy.
Unstable in the region
Montenegro it is completely dependent on the import of petroleum products, and the current geopolitical situation and high prices cause the risk of supply disruptions and potential shortages. The Association of Oil Companies of Montenegro (UNKCG) has warned that there is a serious risk of interruption of fuel supply.
About 65 percent of oil derivatives are delivered to this country by ship from Greece, while the rest is imported by road, mainly from Croatia (about 30 percent), and to a lesser extent from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia, Montenegrin media write. Thus, this country does not import a lot of fuel from Serbia.
And North Macedonia imports about 65 percent of oil derivatives, mostly from Greece, but from time to time also from Serbia.
"Although the current events in the Middle East may cause disruptions in the supply of oil derivatives at the world level, North Macedonia as a country ensures the safe flow and import of derivatives from several different sources and countries," said the Ministry of Energy in Skopje. They also announced that North Macedonia is among the most prepared in the region in terms of oil reserves.
Why did the state ban the export of oil?
The essence of this ban is to protect the domestic market from shortages and price jumps, as a result of global disruptions on the world market, said the Minister of Mining and Energy, Dubravka Đedović Handanović. She also reminds that Serbia is a country where citizens pay for oil derivatives cheaper compared to their real price on the stock market, and that the state does everything to protect citizens and the economy.
Economist and professor Dr. Ljubodrag Savić said earlier that leaving prices to the market would lead to a huge increase in fuel prices, which would be a direct trigger for high inflation. The export ban is, therefore, an attempt by the state to prevent the most dangerous scenario for citizens' pockets, in which there is also a jump in interest rates on loans.
"Increasing prices leads to inflation, because it is an infrastructure activity. There is almost no activity that is not directly or indirectly dependent on fuel, on oil derivatives. Inflation, especially over 10 percent, forces central banks to adopt a restrictive policy and raise reference interest rates. This means a jump in Euribor and Belibor, which directly increases loan installments to citizens who have variable interest rates, and there are the most of such in Serbia," said Savić.
